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The Marygate Stakes at York is in it's fifth running having
been introduced as the earliest Listed race of the season in 2005. That
year the Aubigny Stakes was also a new Listed race in May to precede the
traditional first Listed race pair of the Hilary Needler Trophy & National
Stakes in late May to early June as the calendar fell. The Aubigny Stakes
has disappeared having failed to prove up to Listed quality. The York race
has produced subsequent good winners but for the most part these have been
in earlier season fillies' races. Overall the quality seems to have gone
up overall as the race has become more of a known target.
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2005 saw the winner go on to place in the Queen Mary as the pinnacle of
her career & the National Stakes victress was further back. In 2006
a weak edition of the race saw the winner go on to win a remarkably poor
Queen Mary. In 2007 there were a number of nursery and novice winners in
behind a winner that was unplaced in the Albany Stakes (the 6f race at
Royal Ascot for fillies). Unplaced that year was Loch Jipp who went on
to win the Hilary Needler. Last year was the best to date with the Queen
Mary winner in second and later season Group 3 winner Aspen Darlin (and
untypical development type in the four runnings of the race) in 3rd. Further
back in 6th was the Hilary Needler winner Knavesmire who won with a low
quality performance at Beverley.
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The fact that the last two runnings have had the Hilary Needler winner
prove not quick enough to compete may not be a coincidence. The fast, flat
York track is very different from the uphill, right hand, climb at Beverley.
It may well suit a different type of Run Style with more persistence &
staying power needed for the Hilary Needler. Looking at the four runnings
of the Marygate the winners have mostly been very close up through halfway.
In order they have been 2nd through halfway (a neck off the lead), 3rd
(one length away), 6th (2 lengths off the lead & the frontrunner was
second) and last year was the only one on firmer going and the frontrunner
won. In general the fields have blasted off in tight formation and most
of the field within 2-3 lengths of each other at halfway. If you were off
the leading bunch because of a slow break or lacking the basic pace you
could forget it after a furlong. The four frontrunners have finished 1st,
2nd, 4th & last and the other winners have been the best travelling
Stalk & Pouncers just behind.
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Looking at this year's field there are no shortage of frontrunners &
pressers and no obvious reason to believe you are not going to need to
be backing a filly you think can sit close up to the pace without it breaking
her up. So far Art Jewel, Diamond Laura, Dispol Keasha, & Leleyf have
all led at halfway in at least one run and Aalsmeer, Azif, Chicita Banana,
Misheer & Mrs Boss have been within at most 2 lengths of the leader
for their best efforts. This ought to be a fast race which sorts out the
quality properly and spreads it out for display at the finish.
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Which means that we should be looking fillies who have shown that bit extra
in their runs that might convince you they have that bit better ability
to get them to the front. Chicita Banana has seemed short of this
level and her win a poor performance despite the later efforts of Crown
& Avonvalley who never got into the Bath race. Art Jewel has
a similar profile and has looked 'quirky' and has headgear on for the first
time. The pressure of this race should be too much. Little Scotland
is presumably now Tim Easterby's best 5f filly du jour with Saucy Girl's
defeat at Musselburgh. She was outpaced in an ordinary race at Doncaster
and got to second by trundling past dead horses. She was beaten by King
Of Axum who showed what tends to happen when you put that sort of profile
when left behind in the Novice race at the meeting. Goodbye Earl
is an interesting runner for Alan Berry but has not been able to lie up
close enough in her first two races although the Chester run was tricky
to get close to the front. On quality she comes up short anyway.
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Aalsmeer & Mrs Boss were in front of & behind Goodbye
Earl when they all made their debuts at Haydock. Aalsmeer was a backed
favourite for owner John Fretwell and expected to close to winning. She
was within 1.5 lengths of a stiff pace at halfway and stalled late on.
She did not look fully ready for that debut and ran well. She looked a
lighter framed filly and comes up short of the best here although she should
run well and be supported. Mrs Boss was well behind and trundled into the
back of the faders at Haydock. She ran much better next time and attended
the pace set by Leleyf at Salisbury. They duelled to the line and
were closed on by a couple of FTO Hannon fillies. That line of form looks
lower quality than will be required here and those three come of the list
of possibles as well.
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The shorter list then comes down to Eternal Instinct, Misheer,
Diamond Laura, Dispol Keasha & Azif and probably
in that order of preference. Eternal Instinct won that Haydock race which
also had the fillies covered above in and links to the Leleyf form. One
niggle would be that she went through halfway 5 lengths behind a strong
pace and her taking finish was made to look better because she was passing
stalled horses. But, she travelled well and made progress to order before
the fading really got going and pulled away unpressed. Add in that she
was close to the biggest and with development potential she looks the best
prospect here. If she can travel as well in this race within a couple of
lengths of the duelling zippy ones then you would hope she can get past
in later race. If she cannot then there is always the Hilary Needler.
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Misheer ran in Yarmouth race which had little opposition to her with Thomas
Baines imploding & Tiradito ridden for tomorrow out the back. She raced
in a Line-of-Three for the lead past halfway but the other pair she was
with are probably going to struggle to win sellers. She led alone 2 furlongs
out and pulled well clear until eased late on. She could have won by further
and the time looked good. A piece of circumstantial evidence for her being
ok would be that the trainer gets the debut winners with Listed+ types
normally. She has a good 2yo pedigree and is by the same sire as the speedy
2yo filly Starlit Sands whom she was reminiscent of is size. A strong profile
and if you support her you will know your fate early by how well she is
going against the pace set.
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Azif is tiny but zippy and has shown ability well above her appearance
already. When faced with bigger fillies on debut she got left behind in
the final furlong but responded well enough after hanging left. Next time
out she was much more tractable and stalked Diamond Laura who duelled with
two other fillies and pounced on her late in the final furlong. Diamond
Laura found the reserves to respond and was giving her weight. That form
longs stronger now but the niggles about Azif's err, presence, too much
if you think size matters.
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Diamond Laura isn't much bigger but she has shown something different in
her race by how well she sees out the final furlong having been involved
in duels for the lead. She broke her maiden this week with a tough leading
from a high draw to see off the touted Dascombe newcomer Above Limits and
the closing Avonvalley. The time looked good and she seems a similar type
in race style and ability to last year's winner Bahamian Babe.
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Dispol Keasha was unlucky not to win FTO when she made a strong effort
to get to the lead late before stalling. The performance of the fillies
she passed with that move made it look better before she went to Musselburgh
and put up a good front running display. Her runner-up ran a similar shape
of race behind Fratellino here this week and she looks a good early sprint
2yo with a bit more muscle and go than the average. A different type to
Azif for example.
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In summary, a good looking field in profile with five possibles
although Azif the least likely. A strong pace set by some combination of
Diamond Laura, Dispol Keasha & Leleyf at least and bound to be some
other enthusiasts. The way Diamond Laura sticks at it makes you think she
will survive best unless Dispol Keasha is plain better quality. Misheer
looked a filly of quality FTO and if she can cruise just behind the pacemakers
here she would be staying on well later on. A win for one of those three
perfectly believable but the way Eternal Instinct dealt with the field
at Haydock marked her down as a filly to follow and with the physical substance
to back up the promise. This sort of flat-track tear-up will be the best
chance for the early ones to beat her and she did not prove she could run
close to the pace FTO. However, the way she made progress convinced that
she could have done if she had been asked to and that professionalism an
asset to add to positive profile.
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20 runners for the important 6f Maiden at Newbury but split into
two divisions of 10 to make things more manageable. Remember that the May
9th previews dealt with trainers with target this race for starting off
better 2yos. In particular Richard Hannon who has 5 runners spread over
the two races and Mick Channon who has two.
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The First Division has a 'middle heavy' look to the profile with
few strong profiles. We saw in the York maiden yesterday how a competent
debut (No Hubris) supported by one with a hint of experience (Trade Secret)
can break these fields open and lead to big distances at the finish. The
lack of readiness and mental immaturity added to slow breaks to put more
than half of that field out of the race before it had formed up into it's
early shape. You could see the same happening here.
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The two runners with experience include Clan Piper who was a lost
debut in that soft ground 5f maiden at the course discussed yesterday.
That race showed again yesterday that there were some horses of solid ability
mixed in behind with the dross with Spanish Acclaim's good run at Salisbury
(despite trying to roll on his jockey among a repertoire of unwanted antics).
Clan Piper was supposed to be a better Gosden debut and went along ok for
most of the race but was unable to pick up and faded back. The fact that
the trainer has persisted with him and runs him in a 6f maiden he uses
for solid, or better, types a good sign. A solid Paddock Review confirms
his position as the most likely winner.
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Ant Music was an early runner for Stan Moore in a good race and
ought to be an OR78+ type over the season on his profile. But, the trainers
tends to develop these types slowly and after a break you would probably
expect another solid run here without winning. On the plus side the four
horses he has run in this maiden over the last few years have included
Listed winner Dubai Dynamo (11th at 50/1 on STO to make the development
point). On profile a solid type who will come on well in later season and
may be value when he does.
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Of the newcomers only the best of the Hannon runners looks likely to come
to the same level as a solid Clan Piper effort. The trainer has regular
strong debuts in this race and the better types are often supported and
can win. Canford Cliffs looks the better of the pair here and in
a low level profile overall should place at least. The sort of set-up he
could easily win if a better type. The Hannon second strings in this event
are normally winners during the season although of lesser quality and/or
7f development projects. Finishing well out the back in bigger field versions
was never any barrier to STO transformations and wins. Poltergeist
read as that sort and here for a nice intro before looking to a winnable
opportunity STO.
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Mick Channon has started better types in the race and odd debut wins but
Jehu reads as an ordinary one although worth remembering that Orizaba
was a similarly cheap one last year and strongly supported before his division
success. One to really watch in the Market.
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Paul Cole has also used the race on occasions with a 2nd at 33/1 in 2005
the best result and only later winner. Looking at his early 6f debuts the
summary would be that the first batch are of mixed ability and the best
of them have won FTO in each of the last two seasons. So, there you are
with No Hubris' York win put into context two late. Fantastic Prince
reads as a lesser one here and an ordinary debut although worth noting
how No Hubris was backed in from the normal 6/1 range for a Cole debut
to 7/1 after the horses had gone to the start (having sized up the opposition
in some manner).
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Brian Meehan's summary for his early 6f debuts would be that the first
batch are mixed ability but like Paul Cole will include a really good one.
Because he does relaxed debuts they rarely win. His runners in this maiden
are a good test case. Last year he ran two with seller winner Courageous
Nature 11th at 33/1 and Group placed Gallagher 6th at 5/2. The Market told
you he was the good one the performance told you the trainer is not David
Loder with debuts. In 2007 it was similar with two in the race with one
dispensed of via a seller and one a useful maiden winner in time. The trainer
has Rakaan in this Division and he runs for the owners of Authorised
and an expensive son of Bahamian Bounty. He is presumably the 'Good One'
the trainer runs in this race and Spencer is present (for better or worse).
We saw with his only runner of the season to date - Radiohead - how the
lack of preparedness can get any quality beaten for Meehan FTO, assisted
by the Spencer wobbliness. You would expect a vibe that he is good and
in this thinner field he might win but as much chance of picking a way
to lose out of the Lucky Bag of race runs.
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Tom Dascombe has now had four debut wins this year assisted by better preparation
so Barzan makes you a little nervous. He has sold swell four times
at the sales including a £58,000 sale as a 2yo when Mr Dascombe had
the chance to see him breeze. The trainer has a good record of buying usable
types at the sales so a solid profile but a little short overall. Some
respect also for Harry Dunlop who has a rare early runner with Listillo
by US sire who gets lots of flashy black ones that often look better than
they run. But, Mr Dunlop usually runs future winners this early so one
to track.
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In summary, Clan Piper should improve well from debut and set a
strong standard and one which only a better Hannon debut would normally
beat so Canford Cliffs a close second. No doubt some strong vibes about
Rakaan but the FTO wins for Meehan this early are rare. Jehu & Fantastic
Prince both look ordinary debuts for trainer who do get 6f FTO wins around
this time and very strong market support would be a good sign (i.e. getting
down near to favourite and not 12/1 to 8/1 nibbling which brings out the
'They backing this one' cliche).
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Division 2 lacks a strong runner with experience to set a good standard
for the newcomers. Which means that a strong debut is the most likely outcome
and there are 2-3 possibles. Hannon runs three and Calypso Star
looks the first string over the 7f development type Sabii Sands.
The third runner First Cat looks a more limited one.
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Mr Gosden runs Brisbane who cost a piddling £45,000 given
that he is now owned by Princess Haya. You wonder whether he was passed
on because he was developing well. The vibes are that he is ok but remember
that FTO wins this early are rare for the trainer unless the horse is high
class.
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The most interesting runner in Michael Jarvis' Alrasm because the
trainer rarely starts colts this early. The typical early runners are solid
fillies in late May that win at lesser tracks because of the trainers above
average FTO preparation. A typical Jarvis debut is often notably lively
and on it's toes. His early colt debut in 2006 was Champlain who was third
in this race to Hannon's Major Cadeaux on his way to winning the Chesham
at Royal Ascot. In the last two years his first colt debut has ben around
June 12th and both have been winners FTO for Ahmad Shah. Which means that
if Alrasm is here then he is good and able to show a lot of that ability.
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Odd bits of interest in the others with the Paul Cole debut Rakhine
again looking a lesser one rather than the No Hubris types. There is a
possible FTO lurker with the filly Dragonessa. She is the first
runner for Bryn Palling who was in the 2008 FTO P&L tracking for the
long-shot section. He lacked any quality last year with no 2yo winner but
still managed a debut 2nd with his second runner. When he does have quality
he can get them very fit and FTO wins possible on fitness and priming.
This filly is an owner bred for the Clee's who went to €360,000 to
buy her dam because she was a full sister to Titus Livius. Two years of
struggling to find a race she could win for Mr Palling before they gave
up and sent her to stud. They sent the dam to a good sire in Red Ransom
so perhaps the Clee's might start seeing some return for that enormous
initial outlay.
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In summary, a strong set of debuts with Alrasm on top of the profile
from Calypso Star & Brisbane but probable that they are all comfortably
above average in ability terms. An interesting each-way lurker with Dragonessa
if she runs.
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A few notes for the other four races. The fillies' conditions race at Newbury
always used to get small fields before the Marygate began and often became
a Channon versus Hannon affair. This year's field is typical in many ways
although a tricky set-up. Mijas Playa got a poor ride at Chester
being forced along to try and make ground wide at two points which was
a real negative at the meeting. She then got hampered in centre track in
the straight and drifted back. She should run much better back on a straight
track and allowed to stride on more. She sets a strong standard which it
would need a high class debut to beat. Mick Channon has won the race 3
times in the last four years and been second with a Group winning filly
in the other. Debut runners in the race have typically been average maiden
winners at least. Given that we are in a period where the trainer should
be started out some of his high class 2yos the best of his FTOs here might
be useful. Fly Silca Fly looks the best of the pair. Several other
solid Newcomers of which More Lashes is most interesting but they
will need to be high class to beat Mijas Playa supported by Kurtanella
for the fillies with experience.
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Looking through the races the obvious candidate for the high class Channon
debut is Gallic Star at Newmarket in a race he has used before for
better class fillies to start off. A daughter of Galileo running this early
is a good sign because it means she has been showing speed but has longer
term development prospects. The dam was a useful early season winner for
Barry Hills (winning at the York May Meeting) to add to the overall positive
view. Add in that Darryl Holland rides her when he could presumably have
ridden Meehan's Secret Queen (for owner Jaber Abdullah who he rides
for regularly) and she must be pretty good. The race features a solid filly
with form in Bell's Ocean so a good test for Gallic Star. Also worth
watching the performance of Bella Swan who is the first debut of
the season by Walter Swinburn for the Harris family. A good proportion
of the better debuts and wins are for the horses the family owns themselves
so this may be a development filly with good prospects.
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An interesting set of stories at Hamilton in a small field. Karl Burke
is right on schedule so far with no wins and a few uncompetitive runs for
the most part. Remember that the wins for the stable start from later May
and the lack of win so far not a problem. We should expect to see the odd
win soon and in 2008 his first win was Lord Shanakill at York's May Meeting.
Corporal Maddox ought to be a good one who made a solid debut by
the trainer's early season standards. Given a break he should be coming
to the boils and will probably win here. A slight niggle he did not go
to York but perhaps he is solid but not higher class. Another 5f debut
for Richard Fahey with Trinder and they have been below expectations
so far. More life from his 6f debut at York yesterday and that one looked
much readier and livelier. This one looks light in profile terms to compete
with a full strength Corporal Maddox. Lords Seat & Cambuslang
showed some promise FTO in different manners. Lords Seat was a typical
Alan Berry fizzy nutter but showed some strength and natural speed. Cambuslang
was the second Ian Semple debut after his return to training to disappear
out the back and then stay on late back to the rest. The first of those
turned into a full-on front-runner STO and nearly won. Both should improve
to perform better here but not up to the Corporal Maddox level.
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A close choice between the previous winners in the Newcastle Novice and
all three trainers have reached for a 5lbs apprentice suggesting they are
not convinced their horses have great propects of improving. Slight preference
for Novay Essjay to prove that a debut win for his trainer normally
indicates a better quality type. Also worth noting an expensive debut for
Howard Johnson & Transcend Bloodstock with Leopard Hills. The
trainer has used the race to start of solid winners before and he should
show us a strong debut in the next couple of weeks if he has a high class
horse he wants to win with before Royal Ascot.
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