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A lot of races yesterday and a chance to relearn some old lessens.
Marco Botti returned from a period of moderate debuts to get a strong FTO
with the filly Electric Feeling what looked a solid race. In previous years
he has managed a Group win with a filly who made that sort of start. The
same race saw the Swinburn team get close to a debut win with a family
owned runner which often seems the case. Mick Channon's Gallic Star looked
a bit limited in comparison behind and never looked likely to match the
quiet hype and Market support.
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The Marygate Stakes also reminded us that debut wins & places for Tim
Easterby fillies is usually a very good sign even if the form level is
not that good. Little Scotland make a good bid to win the Listed race having
tracked the stiff pace solidly enough. Funny how so many of those good
debuts are in red colours and often for David Armstrong. A bit less surprising
when you realise that Mr Armstrong is the main owner to bring more expensive
horses to the yard. Little Scotland cost £87,000, for example.
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Which brings us to the Thirsk maiden and with the better prize-money the
racecourse management put into the juvenile races this often has a good
winner. The last three winners have all been newcomers who went on to try
Listed & Group races with mixed success. Last year Tim Easterby had
one of his rare debut wins with Haigh Hall (70,0000gns & Armstong owned)
who went on to finish 5th in the Hilary Needler. The previous year Mark
Prescott's Starlit Sands won FTO on the way to finishing 4th in the Queen
Mary from two Northern newcomers who were OR80+ types. In 2007 Kevin Ryan's
Eliza May won first go but came up well short in better races.
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When Haigh Hall won last year she beat the Bryan Smart Newcomer Excellent
Show who was that trainers 7th debut in the month of May. The previous
6 had produced three wins and 5 of the group won during the year including
some of his better 2yos. That burst of prepared and chosen debuts has been
missing this year so far. Which makes Burnt Cream the most interesting
horse in the race. Another expensive daughter of Exceed And Excel as his
filly last year was. She is drawn low which is often a problem but clearly
a filly to take seriously and a STO winner if she comes up short here.
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Her chances of a debut win are improved because the rest of the field does
not look that strong and depends a lot on what you make of Parbold Hill.
This is another David Armstrong owned one but trained by David Barron,
not Easterby. Another one punted on debut in an often better quality, mixed
gender, Pontefract maiden. The race is probably best approached as Two
Races with the first three home always in the leading trio and pulling
well clear of the others. The very limited Island Express was 5th through
halfway and finished 6th and well beaten since (perhaps going backwards
after being claimed from a seller by Ann Stokell). But, finishing near
him is an issue for the future prospects of any others in the race. The
fourth home - Rock Of Love - was out the back early and plugged on through
the moderate ones and has been beaten in a weak race since (the winner
of it runs in the Ripon seller on Sunday). The 7th in Lofthouse was well
beaten again yesterday. So, the first three are ok and Kingdom Of Light
has already proved that with a solid win at Haydock. Parbold Hill hovers
between the Two Races at Pontefract in that she was close to the leading
three to halfway but lost ground fairly tamely afterwards. She is better
drawn closer tot he stands' rail.
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Outside of that pair the previous form levels are not that strong and Fenella
Rose barely ran to seller level to get to second in a poor Nottingham
race. On the plus side the trainer does not do strong debuts and she did
come out clear second best. Also well drawn but overall the feel of a beatable
runner and perhaps too short given the '2' next to her name. But for a
slight draw niggle you could easily be more interested in Sacred Star.
She got herself across from a high draw at Ripon to press the experienced
Pinnacle Lad with the pair pulling three lengths clear. She faded off that
effort, of course, but showed enough pace to believe she can get involved
up the front early and hang on a lot longer. Lewyn showed very little
FTO for Kevin Ryan but he runs her in a better maiden again so she might
be ok but she starts from such a low level she is very hard to support.
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Of the other newcomers Silver In The Sand stands out and was a non-runner
in the race Fenella Rose ran in at Nottingham. James Bethell is a trainer
that frontloads the better 2yos into the early debuts and Silver In The
Sand is his first runner. Debuts can be variable but he is a 'Competent
FTO' who does get FTO wins and places with the right set-up .This one is
an owner bred out of an older dam who has proved a poor producer so you
are relying on Mr Bethell choosing this as a competitive one rather than
a tiny type before you see her.
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In summary, a big gap in the profile to the others and hard to see
the winner coming from outside the six above. Burnt Cream should be a strong
debut and a better type and with a better draw a very good chance of a
debut win. If Parbold Hill again fades quite as badly as she did at Pontefract
(this a lot less stiff track) then Burnt Cream has a much easier chance.
Best of the each-way types probably Sacred Star and Silver In The Sand
the best of the 'surprising' FTO types.
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