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A quiet Monday but it could be a significant one. If a couple of
the favourites win well it will be an uncompetitive day but we might have
seen two Royal Ascot winners. Or, maybe two horses that will clash in the
Norfolk Stakes. The 5f Conditions Race at Windsor has a history
of producing good 2yos and Richard Hannon usually runs close to the best
early sprint 2yo he has. Last year's edition was a good one with Group
placed Sayif and US Grade 1 winner Square Eddie placed. That was the second
year year in a row that David Evans had managed to win the race with a
very well prepared filly compared to the development colts. Since 2002
the race has produced a Norfolk Stakes winners in 2003-4 with Russian Valour
(2nd to the Hannon rep Soonest) & Blue Dakota and a runner-up in 2006
with Hoh Mike (courtesy of a typically 'unlucky' Spencer hold-up ride and
blocked on the rail).
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Hannon won it in 2002-3 with Tizzy May who went on the finish unplaced
in the Coventry & Soonest unplaced in the Norfolk. He did not have
anything to take on Blue Dakota in 2004 but 2005 saw another success for
Green Park who was also unplaced in the Norfolk. In the last three year's
he has had just one runner with the filly Cake (3rd & then 5th in the
Queen Mary) plus Sonny Red (4th in the Norfolk) a non-runner on the day.
Which tells you a lot about the horses he brings here and how he has a
patchy record at Ascot despite his stable's 2yo emphasis.
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He had the perfect candidate to bring to the race this year with Monsieur
Chevalier who has looked very accomplished in two early season 5f wins.
The later efforts of Diamond Laura whom he beat FTO make that easy win
look much better. His conditions race win looked good at the time but has
not really been tested since with Soccer off games & the 3rd-4th also
not running again. In each race he has sat behind a strong pace and been
best placed to jump to the lead when the front rank have started to fold.
That has probably made him look better than his form actually warrants
but he has won unpressed both times. The jockey has always suggested he
will stay further and you wondered whether he might go for the 6f Coventry
instead. The fact he is here suggests he will probably go to the Norfolk
and Canford Cliffs may well be the Coventry runner.
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Which means you would want to see his 5f credentials tested fully here
at a high level. You would presume that Kirstys Boy is not fast
enough to do that and is a later race grafter and not a natural speedball.
Which means that if you are Archers Road's connections you might
think that the way to beat Monsieur Chevalier would be to have a medium
pace and a short sprint in late race. Tearing off in front is setting
it up for him unless you get the pace absolutely right. In receipt of 3lbs
the Channon colt sets a good test for the favourite and he has already
shown with his effort against Red Jazz on a stiffer, straight track that
he has the pace to put a more 6f type under pressure for speed later in
the race.
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Channon has also declared the filly Ailsa Carmel who ran three days
ago on debut and ran well while not looking wound up. She cannot have improved
greatly in a short spell but gets a lot of weight and the last two years
have shown how that can bring a powerfully built filly to compete to win.
She looked a natural free-runner FTO so perhaps she might lead but not
start taking Archers Road on if they are sensible. A stretch to imagine
she can win but a positive in review and should run well and be still responding
to the line.
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In summary, not an obvious betting race and more an even to learn
about the principals for future higher class events. The one way to beat
Monsieur Chevalier is probably to make it a speed test rather than a staying
one and therefore not an strong pace from the start. Archers Road has looked
reliable (although he looked a little sour at the start at Chester) and
tractable and would be best for him to get he rail and settle the pace
and see if Monsieur Chevalier can beat him for pace in the last 2 furlongs.
Ailsa Carmel is probably up to winning a fillies' conditions race in earlier
season but meets two tough colts here and lack experience. But she should
be able to keep close to them to the finish with the weight allowance.
Kirstys Boy does not look up to the class of he first two.
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The fillies maiden at Windsor usually relies on Richard Hannon to
provide some better quality and in normally produces just a few minor winners
if he does not bring any better ones. He has won it one in the last four
years with the later Listed winner Baileys Cacao last year who was on debut.
His other runners have been OR70s types at best and have placed at best
and not been able to beat an OR80s filly if one has been in the field.
This edition does not look a strong race at all with the Hannon runners
not looking better ones. Richard Hughes rides Yer Woman who appeared
to be second string to Folleta (a non-runner) FTO at Bath. The market there
did not suggest a better one and she looked taller but wiry to put it politely.
Held up off a stiff pace into a strong headwind she trundled to second
late past some dying small ones. That did not seem to promise a definite
'ordinary maiden' win (say OR75) but she is likely to be favourite here
but probably opposable. White Daffodil is the second string and
Hughes has a good record of choosing the better one these days with Ryan
Moore now definitely demoted to a back-up role for the stable. She seemed
to run at least as well as Yer Woman first go and you suspect it was a
close choice for Hughes unless Yer Woman has blossomed notably in which
case she is likely to be under 2/1.
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Now, going against Hannon STO runners at Windsor without a good alternative
is not the safest decision to make but his record in this race is to bring
beatable kit if you have an OR80s type in opposition. A couple of possibles
and Peter Winkworth has provided the winner in 2006 beating the Hannon
reps that year. That was with a solid filly called Miss Otis who was 20/1
FTO. His good debut runners seemed to get backed now and Lutine Lady
was supported strongly at Salisbury but finished well behind White Daffodil.
But, she had a presentable excuse because she refused to settle and got
unbalanced at more than one point as she bumped into runners in front &
to the side of her. If that can be fixed then a possible to beat the middling
level the best Hannon runner will set.
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Pat Eddery had a debut winner with Hearts Of Fire but that did not signal
a real change to his preparation and more a natural runner. He has been
similarly positive about Bramshill Lady and she has been ready to
run for some time. One to check in the paddock, for sure. After that the
alternatives look a bit thin. Angie's Nap showed not very much FTO
here and Chinese Democracy expired badly in the straight at Warwick.
Riffelalp makes a bit more appeal and the race she ran in at Goodwood
might have been under-rated. But she lacks a real 5f pedigree and did not
get involved with the pace FTO. Sylvester Kirk (yet another Hannon Son-in-law
in the race) runs Ellmollell who was a non-runner at Wolverhampton
last week. He does not get debut wins other than with high class ones and
she reads as a smaller, but usable, one with development. A bit more interest
for the day with Gessabelle because Phil McEntee gets his 2yos fit
and drilled for debut. He has had a FTO win in early season and it is lack
of quality & numbers that stops him getting more. Her full brother
Bel Cantor finished second (at 66/1) FTO for the trainer back in early
April 2005 to make the point. She is an owner bred so difficult to judge
but one for the paddock person.
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In summary, the Hannon runners are likely to be shorter prices given
the lack of overt opposition and the stable's reputation. Neither of his
runners looked better class on debut and will set just a middling standard.
A set-up that allows looking for value in the others. Lutine Lady is better
than she showed FTO and probably at least the standard of the Hannon pair
if she settles. But, will be at a longer price. More each-way prospects
with Bramshill Lady & Gessabelle if you can get a look at them or if
they are at silly & long double-figure prices.
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Bryan Meehan regularly uses Bath races to try to get tidy up wins
for better class maidens. He has won this Novice race for the last two
years with Waveline & Zezao who both ran in Listed+ races afterwards.
Radiohead went to Newmarket with a big reputation and did a lot
to fulfil that but not in the manner expected. A good outcome would have
been to see him cruise along behind the pace and then quicken through for
a clear win. A combination of the Meehan pre-work and the Spencer riding
style saw him 7 lengths off the lead after a furlong and then pulled around
behind the pack because Spencer wanted him to make his challenge between
horses. This added an extra difficulty when he could have just made progress
outside of the group. The horse did well to make smooth progress through
to challenge but had nothing left to respond with when the well prepared
filly High Spice responded to his presence.
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As at Windsor the interest in the race is as much to see whether Radiohead
can prove himself up to going to the Norfolk Stakes or whether he struggles
a bit and goes onto Listed races next time instead. With Boga a
solid seller winner and True Red very small and not even that level
he should deal comfortably with that pair. The only possible alternative
to him winning if he performs well would seem to be a high class debut
from Mick Channon's Trelawney Wells. The trainer had three FTO winners
in mid-May last year of the sort that would give Radiohead problems and
we have not seen one yet this year. Channon seems to start ordinary ones
for closer friends in Novice events rather than targeting them with high
class ones. Box 41 would fit into that mould. The horse is by new sire
Pastoral Pursuits who has three solid winners already and cost 52,000gns
and well above his average. A strongish profile but some stronger Market
support if he is really good and if you are on the track look for the extra
muscle definition and lean look of his prepared debut winners.
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Hannon's Ragsta would need to be very high class to win FTO which
is just about possible because her dam did so for the stable and won at
Group 3 level later to make the point.
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In summary, another non-obvious betting race with Radiohead a believable
better type and would actually be quite good to see him put up a strong
win on his way to the Norfolk Stakes.
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A full field of 14 at Southwell for the 5f race. A couple of reminders
about the course that running down close to the stands' rail in the straight
produces moderate results in the long terms. Winners over 5f tend to race
centre to far side. Also, the fibresand surface is very different to the
other all-weather surfaces and some horses do not handle it at all. Proven
ability to act on the track a big plus. The course also suits runners with
early pace because making ground with hold up rides does not work. Even
front runners that go barmy over 5f here (as Spic 'N Span does every time
he runs) can take forever to be reeled in and then often by a a single,
proven closer who has been in the first 3-4 places early.
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The first 2yo race of the year here had an 11 runner field and the first
three home were in three of the first 4 places at halfway and Drawn 1,
2 & 4 (easiest access to the preferred strip). Which means that Koo
And The Gang makes a strong case having finished second in that race
having led at halfway. He is drawn a tad too high and needs to shift over
left a bit but a solid profile for the race otherwise.
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Ginger Ted has been featured in previews before and as the first
runner of the year for Richard Guest his profile said he was usable. He
look heavy and dull in condition FTO and get left behind in fast conditions.
He then got left behind on softer going still looking underdone. He turned
up over 6f at Haydock looking like a different horse. Coat and condition
has come into bloom and he was bouncing around full of it. He dragged that
big field along for a long way at a good rate and responded after being
headed. That looked a real step forward and the frontrunning a plus. If
he handles the track he makes strong appeal.
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Three of the newcomers worth noting starting with Tom Dascombe's Janeiro.
Four FTO wins already and his debut runners looking strongly prepared means
he has to be considered. Add in a solid draw and the fact the the Dascombe
newcomers lead or sit close up if they are here to win and we should know
very early where he will finish. He is by the sire Captain Rio who people
will expect to develop a good Southwell record to go with his perceived
soft ground influence.
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Mick Easterby has his second 2yo runner of the season with Go To Dubai
who looks a solid profile to go well and perhaps place. Yesterday's profile
noted that his earliest 2yos runners are well prepared and the competitive
ones and often place & sometimes win at long odds. What happened to
the first runner yesterday? 2nd at 66/1 so Mr Easterby may be late starting
with his 2yos but the basic plot has not change.
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George Baker, the trainer not the jockey or the horse, runs Vested Interest
who cost 5,000gns and is owned by Susan Roy who normally owns things that
cost telephone numbers. He is another trainer who seems to prepare the
debut runners well so this one might go well but a draw in 13 makes it
tough.
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In summary, an interesting set-up with 3-4 solid contenders to choose
from. Koo And The Gang the percentage choice being proven on track and
by run style. Ginger Ted looked to have come on so well last time physically
and in attitude that he looked one to support next time and B2yoR would
not let him go unsupported in some way. Another Dascombe debut to worry
about and that ten-bob each-way on the Mick Easterby debuts hasn't brought
a win return since April 2007 but he seems to be on track this year.
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