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A good start to the week on Monday & Tuesday with Monsieur
Chevalier running well at Windsor & Radiohead looking high
class although having little to beat. In it's own way the performance of
Tawaabb yesterday was probably as impressive. Still plenty of time
for some good debuts by better runners prior to Royal Ascot and further
chances to assess the best we have seen in the 6f Conditions race at Pontefract
on Friday, the 5f Conditions race at Beverley over the weekend and the
Listed pair of events next week with the Hilary Needler & the National
Stakes.
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The 2 day Goodwood meeting which starts today has a pair
of maidens which used to be higher class affairs and targeted by the bigger
stables. This year the 6f Fillies' maiden today is back down to being a
Class 5 prize money level having been higher in the past. The maiden race
tomorrow is a 'Median Auction' Class 5 meaning it limits the possible quality
of entrants by dint of the sire's sales results. Go back a few seasons
and this meeting had the type of maidens (equivalent to Class 3 or 4 now)
that you should be looking for Gosden & co. to bring their best to.
Goodwood may have a lot of things going for it but it does like to skimp
on 2yo races when the resources are tight.
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Even with the short prize money this race typically includes at least one
high class filly each year. Behind her will be the small number of
later maiden winners and it will quickly tail off into the moderate ones
& social runners. Last year was typical with the winner a debut runner
for Hannon called Elusive Wave. She promptly got bought and sent to be
trained in France. Let's hope they got a lot of money because Elusive Wave
was a Group winner at 2yo and won the French 1,000 Guineas recently. Behind
her was the usual assortment but none won a maiden and two nursery winners.
In recent years Paul Cole has run Group placed High Heeled Sneakers on
debut and Mick Channon started older Group 1 winner Majestic Roi although
neither won.
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This year's field looks right on script of profile with the odd hint of
a better one, a smallish medium tier of possible maiden winner types and
probably 6 who are here for the view of the Isle Of Wight. Anjomarba
is a good place to start because she sets an early (soon to decline) OR70
level to test the better ones. She was uncompetitive FTO and the season
has been another when Bill Turner has not had his early runners wound up,
against his normal methods. Since then she has made the first 4 three times
and when you list the horses that have beaten her - Monsieur Chevalier,
Diamond Laura, Grand Zafeen, Avonvalley & Above Limits - that seems
ok.
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But, if you look at her races, with one exception, she is the 'Changeover
Point' between the good horses in front of her and the garbage behind.
The type of profile a pundit making it up as they go along can make some
terrific without looking at the races properly and using a results listing
which only shows the horses in front of her. Put another way, she has beaten
two subsequent winners and one of those was the very limited, mostly talented
at fading, Lady Lion. The one exception was Duchess Dora who was a typically
underdone John Quinn debut type who improved notably STO to win at Catterick
(in a race that has produced 2 later winners & a 4th place & looks
more interesting now).
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Anjomarba is a small one and does not look to be improving and 6f not going
to see her improving. Not good enough to win unless this field is thinner
than it looks on profile although she should help with the pacemaking for
a good way. The other horse with a previous run is Richard Hannon's La
Pantera who also runs the newcomer Baoli. The fillies' maiden
at Windsor on Monday was a good indication of how Hannon can get wins with
OR70ish types. His pair for that race looked beatable by a better, say
OR79 type, but when there is nothing in the field of any worthwhile quality
for the day they finish 1st & 2nd because Hannon knows where to place
his horses. It was also a good example of how the second string (Moore
rather than Hughes ridden) can win at times.
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La Pantera did not get supported like a better one on debut although did
end up as the stable's 1st string. She did not go like a better class one
in the race either. But, she was competent under a 3lb apprentice until
hanging left later on but comfortably left behind behind two broader physical
types. A debut that said Mr Hannon would find a race of some sort for her
but not a better class maiden. The horses in 2nd & 4th to her 3rd placing
have both been well beaten in a Newmarket maiden since to support that
view. Which does not mean she cannot win this one with Hughes aboard because
it might only need an OR72 effort to win if all you have to do is beat
Anjomarba. She can probably manage that ok if without the Elusive Wave
authority.
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Although Hannon often starts some expensive and good looking ones in the
race over the years a lot of them have end up maidens at seasons end. To
name a few Swahili (2003), Rubber (2005), Lush (2007) & Straitjacket
last year (Not a solicitor's practice you would be rushing to use). The last of those was actually 2/1 favourite (with Moore rather
than Hughes riding) over Elusive Wave and finished the year scuffling about,
with no success, in nurseries off OR69. Baffling. Perhaps that explains
why they sold Elusive Wave. Perhaps Richard Hughes knew which was the best
one (as he usually does) but Hannon did not?
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So, best of luck with trying to decipher what Baoli is. The B2yoR
trend guess would be that she's a good looking but slightly slow one and
Richard Hughes knows which one to sit on. La Pantera is probably a bit
better than her debut looked and is likely to be an OR76-80 tight.
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And so we are back with the 'Windsor Conundrum'. Before getting to the
course and seeing how slight in build Lutine Lady is & how unprepared
in condition Bramshill Lady was (although an ok development type) you might
be looking to get Hannon's Yer Woman beaten. Having seen the opposition
he Hannon's were going to wangle a win with a moderate to average one as
they often do. Anything is this field that might be that better debut?
Well, the list probably doesn't get much past Velvet Band. Paul
Cole runs two newcomers and this one reads better than Falling Angel.
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The trainer has run two in the race since 2002 with Silver Calling 4th
in 2002 at 6/1 one the way to a good STO win at Pontefract and then evanescing.
In 2005 High Heeled Sneakers was 2nd at 7/1 on the way to a good STO win
at Thirsk and then Group races. So, the best of the pair will be around
6/1 and not wound up for debut but will run well but need to be a bit readier
than normal to win FTO. Watching how No Hubris was backed to 7/2 for the
win for the trainer on debut last week then perhaps the market might be
some pointer. Velvet Band is by Verglas who is building a good record since
he returned out of a Group winning 2yo dam.
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Behind those you have a couple of possible sound debuts from trainers who
get regular debut wins. Ralph Beckett has not had a 2yo winner yet and
well behind in terms of number of runners. Agony And Ecstasy has
said this one is a nippy & precocious ones that should win. Looking
at the previous Goodwood debuts he has run only 1 has won but as a group
they have all been OR75-85 types that could win in their turn. This one
looks similar and if a natural and a but better quality a borderline possible
for a win.
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Peter Winkworth runs It's A Deal and his 5 debuts at Goodwood have
produced one fourth and that was the only OR70 later winner. This one has
a limited pedigree and Jim Crowley rides for Beckett instead when he rode
Winkworth's only debut winner in 2009.
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Difficult to work up much enthusiasm for the others and left-field winners
if they manage it. Mick Channon has started some high class fillies in
the race but also some mild seller types of his own breeding. Flyinflyout
was bred by his Norman Court Stud and passed on in some form to be used
by the Racegoers' Club for one of their partnerships. Reads as a social
runner who will find her level on later runs. Worth noting another debut
runner for Hughie Morrison with Hot Pursuits who is an owner bred
by Pastoral Pursuits whom he trained. Remember that a win or a place on
debut for him normally indicates a Group quality runner. Finishing at the
back for an early debut like this for the stable does not mean it is a
useless one. Overall the trainer has below average record with 2yos because
of lack of strong interest rather than lack of his ability. The early runners
each year contain a high percentage of the few winners he gets each year
so Hot Pursuits may well be usable but more likely to be a STO blossomer
than iron-them-out FTO filly.
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In summary, the two fillies with previous runs are unexciting but
low OR70s can win this race. The type of race where wandering off to look
(hope) for a stronger debut can get you into trouble unless you have seen
the newcomers. Preference for Agony And Ecstasy as knowing enough to compete
FTO but may well not be big enough to deal with a competent and race fit
La Pantera. Velvet Band may well be the best filly in the field for the
long haul but only place FTO (nut watch for her being punted to well below
the 6/1 mark).
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