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The 6f races at Goodwood & Haydock have representatives from
the major 2yo stables & a chance to revisit how the early 6f debuts
have gone. The Goodwood race has a mixed history but has been used
to start off good 2yos and Richard Hannon is to the fore as usual. No apology
repeating the following text from the Preview for the first Goodwood meeting
of the year in early May :-
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"In both 2007 & 2008 there have been three debut winners. Looking
at those debut wins they indicate a number of useful themes for thinking
about maidens at the course. The debut wins have been in two specific periods.
The first of those is the 6f maidens towards the end of May and
in early June. These are ideally positioned to attract better types from
major stables as a pre-Royal Ascot outing. Richard Hannon had two debut
winners in this period in 2008 with the colt Versaki (tried in Group races
but non-progressive) and the filly Elusive Wave (sold to race in France
and a leading Classic contender there). In 2007 the two 6f FTO wins in
this period were both useful types tried at Royal Ascot. Go back over previous
years and debut winners in this timeframe include names like Sir Percy
(2006) & Dubawi (2004). The second time to look for debut wins because
of superior horses is in the 7f maidens at the Glorious Goodwood meeting.
In 2008 the colts' race was won by Group 2 winner Jukebox Jury and in 2007
by Listed placed Latin Lad.
Outside of those times the maidens can be moderate with little worthwhile
in them. Typically they will have at least an average (OR75) winner and
occasionally a useful type included but lacking real depth. A few
trainers have very good records at the course with Richard Hannon most
important of late with 11 maiden wins out of the 36 in 2007-8."
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Hannon won the maiden yesterday to improve his record and won this event
last year with a STO colt. In recent years he has started Group winning
2yo Scintillo & the useful Berbice in the race but neither won FTO.
A small number of other trainers have used the race with Sir Percy declared
for the abandoned edition in 2005, Group winner Caldra beaten into 2nd
FTO in 2006 & Dream Eater was placed in 2007. Only Hannon and Sylvester
Kirk have runners in this race.
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Looking at the profile for this race it has a peculiar shape. The five
horses that have already run have shown form levels ranging from poor to
moderate. Which means that either one of those experienced horses needs
to step forward markedly or an above average debut is required to stop
this needing a low quality performance to win. We saw how volatile the
'Market' was yesterday, in the Goodwood fillies' race, with many horses
backed & nibbled at without some strong contenders to exert some strong
influence. This race should be a bit more solid but still with a few 'Movers'
marketwise.
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Of those with form you would probably discount Welsh Legacy who
showed some pace on debut on soft but a low OR60s if he develops well.
Master
Mylo has probably shown us what he can do and that will no be good
enough. Kings Aphrodite looked a shell of a horse on debut with
development potential but still needing to fill out. He ran too freely
and then was held up STO at Brighton but faded anyway finishing behind
horses beaten in sellers since. Which leaves the only feasible STO runners
to stop a debut winner would be Footstepsofspring & Timelord.
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The former ran in a good Newmarket maiden that has produced two winners
this week. But he was last and behind a filly well beaten at Yarmouth.
A chunky and powerful type but looking to lack fitness first time and not
an obviously athletic mover. Wearing boots behind and dropping back so
easily FTO looked an issue. He should improve here but it has to be more
of a transformation to win & probably more a development run. Added
to that his trainer runs Big Audio on debut and Richard Hughes has
parked himself on that one. Former Hannon assistant & still son-in-law
of Hannon Sylvester Kirk has used the race twice recently for the Group
class Caldra and the development nursery winner Fathsta. The stable rarely
has wins before July and these early runners are gaining some experience
for later runners and preparing for nurseries. Timelord made an invisible
debut in a solid Bath race and looks the development type. Which means
a win here would be a surprise.
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So, unlike La Pantera in the fillies' race yesterday there does not appear
to be a strongish experienced runner as a barrier to a FTO win. The best
two possibilities for a better class debut are Hannon's Big Audio &
Channon's Aattash. Hannon is an interesting case in that we should
remember that his debut winners are nearly always high-class horses
and not highly prepared ones. Remember that Scintillo & Berbice were
both beaten FTO in the race. But, looking at the horses that beat them
they were either solid STOs or strong debut profiles from the 'right' trainers.
Scintillo was also an 8f horse starting at a shorter distance. Looking
at Hannon's 4 x debut winners at the course since 2002 none has beaten
a strong field. [He has not turned into a 'FTO Trainer' in recent years
and started doing something different this year as the ATR pundit suggested
today. He has done the same thing with debuts for, probably, decades and
the different numbers of FTO winners each year reflect the quality he has
and, in 2008, the sheer number of horses he runs.]
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Big Audio Big Audio is by new sire Oratorio who has not had a British 2yo
winner yet and only a few runners. The best has been Beethoven placed at
York last week over 6f. If he is a real 6f horse he may well be good enough
to win this FTO given the quality of the field. If he is actually a better
7-8f horse he would be more vulnerable.
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Mick Channon has not shown us a strong debut winner recently of the type
we would expect although Tawaabb won well STO and was probably the high
class debut type (but ran into a solid Hannon one with experience). He
runs the other strong FTO runner on profile here with Aattash for
the same owner as Tawaabb. An expensive son of Clodovil (a favourite of
the trainer) out of an ordinary dam side given the money paid. In general
terms if this one is starting out now for these connections he is above
average and might be trying out his Ascot credentials. Channon has toned
down his FTO preparations in recent years and is even less of a FTO trainer
than Hannon. He gets his debut successes mostly with the very good ones
at identifiable times.
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Which means we have a set-up with experienced horses who do not appeal
and FTO horses who are likely to be very good but not hard trained. If
La Pantera had not been in the fillies' race here yesterday the two best
newcomers would have won from the limited Anjomarba who possessed better
form than any of those in this race. So one of the Hannon & Channon
pair should win unless there is a lurking stronger debut from a readier
FTO trainer. The usual possibility with Winkworth's Foxtrot Foxtrot
and this one has Jim Crowley back riding for him. A more interesting one
is Stef And Stelio for Gerard Butler. He prepares his horses well
for debut and the earliest debuts are the 2yo winners he has for the most
part. He gets debut places and odd wins on solid preparation without winding
horses up and this sort of set-up is right for that sort to show up well.
This one has just a solid pedigree and in line with the reduced string
the trainer has. The days when he was ironing out fields at Lingfield with
expensive juveniles for Thoroughbred Corp. on FTO are past.
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Worth mentioning the first runner of the season for John Dunlop at a typical
time of the year. His record with juveniles has declined markedly in recent
years and has the feel of a stable winding down. He still gets odd winners
for Hamdan Al Maktoum but few otherwise. The one major exception would
be for the Goodwood Racegoers' Club and Goodwood Maestro runs for
them. He bred this one and has passed it onto them so he presumably thinks
he can win with it. But probably STO unless it is OR84+ quality. He has
his debut runners fitter than nearly any other trainer so the odd accidental
FTO win can occur.
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In summary, a motley bunch with experience make little appeal although
Timelord should be watched for development promise & Footstepsofspring
for better fitness, movement and perseverance. One of Aattash or Big Audio
should win if they are as good as their profiles with preference for the
Channon horse overall. A reasonable each-way FTO lurker with Stef And Stelio.
Oh, and watch Imperial Warrior for STO promise and probably do not
worry if he is clueless and lapped because he will still win STO. Probably
at Bath and at 20/1 if he flunks this test.
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The Haydock Auction race has changed to be a 6f distance from 5f
this year and attracted a bigger field and made into two divisions. Neither
look strong on profile with 4-5 in each race which would not be surprise
winners given the low level and compressed nature of the rating levels.
If you just looked at the races in terms of 'Stories' and what tends to
happen you could pull out these three strands and see how they go :-
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Mark Johnston has a runner in each division with the expensive Nave
in
the first race and the owner bred retained Pallantes Cross in the
second. Remember that he has had just three debut wins at 6f before
Royal Ascot in the last 4 seasons. He chooses his York (lost debut by the
very big galloper Original Dancer) & Ripon (none this year) maiden
runners in May carefully and the end of the month tends to be variable
stock just getting going. A lot of the Maktoum owned ones (neither of these
are) starting in late may are OR60s to low 70s 'Surplus Stock'. Given that
background you could work on the basis that this pair are beatable and
likely to be poor value. Nave has the easier assignment on paper and the
pedigree.
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Kevin Ryan has had a slow start so far and just one winner (of two
races). Other than the suspect Gillburg there has hardly been a worthwhile
debut of any promise from the others. He must have some better ones and
he runs them in batches and the best of them win FTO. late May and into
June is a good time to be looking if they have not run earlier. He did
not run anything at York which is often the starting point. Either he is
behind schedule or lacks a strong team but that seems unlikely. Which means
that that is a solid chance that one of Whelkeen Rock & Sejanus
is a better one and these sort of soft races just the type his better FTO
juveniles can win. On profile a preference for Sejanus.
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Tim Easterby's declining record with 2yos has been noted before but he
still regularly shows us a couple of old tricks each year. One is the debut
wins attempt(s) by his best sprint filly in early season. The old dog has
had a go at that already with Saucy Girl & Little Scotland. The other
regular is the surprise STO win from something that show nothing FTO in
an early season debut. A couple of possibles here in a race he has won
with a similar one before (Captain Dunne). The filly Brinscall makes
less appeal and made a poor debut in a race the trainer often runs limited
ones in. A possible improver but a pass overall. Because we all like a
flawed underdog, more interest in Flaneur who was pretty wild FTO
in the preliminaries and looked a handful in attitude. But, a positive
to get above OR70 at 2yo and to be competitive here after a break and hopefully
at long odds.
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Division I looks a test between the best of the three STO runners and three
possible FTO winners. Brinscall is dealt with above and Ingleby Spirit
was one of a rash of duff 5f debuts for Richard Fahey before he got on
normal course last week. The race he ran in featured a strong pace but
he never got involved by either trying to stick with it or by trundling
into the folders late on. Too low a performance level overall from a trainer
of his methods to want to support it STO. More interest in Johnnyleary
for David Nicholls. He has varied his approach again this year and the
early debuts have been well short in fitness, condition and nous. Three
of his 2yos to date have shown around a 20 points rating improvement STO.
This one ran in the Class 3 Chester maiden where he normally starts a good
one but predictably blew his rail draw with a bad break and trundled along
out the back. He really will improve STO and come out best of the STOs.
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Two of the better debuts are dealt with above with Nave having to be unusually
good or lucky (in having found a weak race) to be an unusually early Johnston
debut win at 6f. Whelkeen Rock might well be a winner if he is a better
one because the Ryan preparation is more solid. Karl Burke's approach to
2yos is fascinating and each year he runs a few in early season and they
never (to a good approximation) win. Then the stables comes into form to
late May and those early horses start winning and he throws in the odd
useful one to win FTO and he gets his first set of winners before things
go quiet for a bit. Two STO wins in the last 5 days for two of those early
runners confirms the stable is now 'open for business' and time to watch
for a good debut. Merseyside Star is a breeze-up purchase for one
of his most important owners (30+ 2yos with him) and has an ok sprint 2yo
pedigree. But, giving weight a pass as a possible debut winner.
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In summary for Division I, oppose the Johnston runner as a long
term call and nervously pass on the Fahey 'improver' too. Do not really
believe that Brinscall is Easterby's 'card trick' for the day or that Burke's
newcomer will be quite primed enough. Most interest in Johnnyleary as the
STO improver and Whelkeen Rock as the best newcomer (unfortunately the
Market is not a fully reliable indicator of the better Ryan debuts unless
they are really high class individuals).
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In Division II the filly Daniella De Bruijn is likely to
be close to favourite after two bouts of eyecatching in low quality races.
Left behind on debut and trundling into the faders then blocked on the
rail when making similar progress late on at Yarmouth. On the plus side
she finished the race off well at Yarmouth and 6f will give her more time
to unwind but she has looked limited and the performances she has put up
so far would barely win a low level seller. With the trainer coming up
to his second anniversary of his last juvenile winner a simple pass. The
points above note Flaneur as the left field improver that B2yoR is most
interested in and Sejanus as the possible Ryan better newcomer. Since this
is Division II the outcomes of the first race will give further info on
how their other runners fared.
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Pallantes Cross a pass as a Johnston newcomer and a FTO for another major
stable with Gosden's Key Breeze. Think back to the last Haydock
meeting and Johnny G had two 6f debuts for Princess Haya & Hamdan Al
Maktoum. Isdaar looked a woeful waste of money unplaced at 7/1 and Running
Mate poor value when 4th after being punted down to 5/2. Remember he has
a solitary debut win with a 6f runner before Royal Ascot in the last 4
seasons. Which means this one is a pass on Principle and if he wins by
10 lengths and becomes favourite for the Coventry, that's fine. But implausible.
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Tom Dascombe has had 4 debut winners this year but all Kingscote ridden.
Coloursoftheglen
with a 5lb apprentice makes little appeal as another. More general interest
in Keen Bidder because David Simcock gets FTO winners and the first
runners each year, this is the initial 2yo for him, will be competitive
minor winners of some sort.
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In summary for Division II, Daniella De Bruijn will probably make
a solid stab at a win and see the race out and set a modest standard. Reasons
to oppose some of the more prominent debut ones on principle and most interest
in Sejanus & Keen Bidder as a back-up. But, over the cliff with Flaneur
as this year's surprise STO winner for the Maestro of Habton, err, Tim
Easterby.
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A difficult set-up for the 5f maiden at Salisbury with all of the
runners with previous outings having achieved very little to nothing worthwhile
at all. Which means picking out the most likely to improve from poor starts.
The newcomers do not provide much of an alternative with two for the same
trainer as the 'best' of the STOs and two moderate looking ones for smaller
stables.
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A brief recap. Sir Parky made his debut over 6f in a Haydock maiden
on easier going with a frantic multi-way pace. After losing 5 lengths at
the start as most of the others blasted off the jockey decided early to
leave it for STO and just trundle home. He was in 12th of 13 at halfway
and 10 lengths off the lead and the jockey probably felt he had made the
right move. Just one problem, the pacemakers fell in a big heap before
the last furlong and walked home. The winner was the only horse
behind Sir Parky at halfway and fully 5 lengths further back. If the jockey
had been a bit more persistent he should have placed at least. Now,
Richard Hughes has chosen this one to ride over the two newcomers and he
has a good record overall in such positions.
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The other Hannon debuts, in light of those he has run in the race in recent
years, should include one OR70s winner at least and one slightly lesser
quality. A rare ride for Robert Winston for the stable muddies the issue
but Deely Plaza reads as slightly more likely to be better than
Mactrac.
This matters because if Sir Parky comes up a bit light an accidental win
for the best of them is a possibility.
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Radio City ran in a laughably slow race FTO which proved little
about the relative abilities of the runners in what amounted to little
more than a single furlong sprint. The second and 6th have been beaten
since & the poor effort by Knightfire (& long SP) at Leicester
this week a bit odd. Which means you are relying again on a sound trainer
in Ralph Beckett when he says this is a usable OR70s type 2yo. Seb Sanders
is riding which increases the belief but still not a strong profile.
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Strike Shot was another 'No Show' on debut with a slow break followed
by floundering about and an inert jockey. The trainer is less sure with
2yos than the other two which is about the only angle into separating this
bunch until you have seen them in the paddock. Similar stories with the
others who have run with vague hints of promise from Tuckers Law
& Hachi but at a very low level.
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In summary, a difficult race to sum up and the lazy option is to
assume the Hannon STO horse Sir Parky will be good enough. Looking at the
trainer's record trial debuts are pretty common. In 2008 he had 47 debuts
that finished 7th or worse FTO and as many as 20 of them managed to win
later although a 25% metamorphosis rate is more usual. A similar profile
alternative with Radio City and probably a value choice between these two
but neither a strong profile. The sort of set-up which is not strongly
defended for a longer priced winner of the likes of Tucker's Law.
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A very different set-up at Sandown with Above Limits bringing
a very strong profile into the race. The Market said she was a better Dascombe
FTO attempt but she had landed in a very tough race. She ran really well
at Wolverhampton to get to second one off the rail around the bend against
experienced fillies. [This is actually entirely the wrong place to get
to at the track with the last 60 horses to go around the bend in that position
around 2/60 overall in wins. Go around in the lead on the rail or drop
back a bit to a tracking 3rd-4th but do not press in 2nd, it's woefully
inefficient use of power]. She kept going well in the straight until
dropping back in the final furlong. The winner went on to be 4th in the
Marygate while pressing a strong pace to confirm the view she was in a
tougher than average AW affair. She has a wide draw again but has shown
she can get across towards the rail with her early effort.
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She would be a much better prospect than Hannon's Deal anyway but
that one is likely to be a non-runner. Deal is very small and limited by
her size. If Fleeting Echo was the stable's second string to her
then it does not suggest she will be the Listed+ type filly who can win
FTO for the trainer. Clive Brittain runs yet another Saeed Manana owned
2yo with She's Ok (the 9th). Two debut wins and two places suggests
he has a better bunch this year but this one is a cheap one by the sire
Xaar. The name and Dettori riding might mean she is another better one
but the Market is going to be of limited help with the Dettori factor added
in. A pass overall.
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John Hills runs Itwasonlyakiss who made a perfectly good debut at
Windsor. Smooth early progress to cross over to second early and fade inside
1.5 furlongs out. If that was a Hannon runner on a Hughes trial ride you
would be pretty sure she would go well. But Mr Hills is not one to trust
with the development and consistent running of 2yos. You could not even
be certain of it running to a similar level let along improving. Over the
years opposing his runners and swallowing the odd surprise, to all, winner
a minor embuggerance.
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Come on Mick..., where are these strong debuts we are expecting? Tawaabb
was one we now see and Aattash might be another today. What about Exotic
Beauty? A good 2yo pedigree out of a 5f winning dam who won a Group
3 sprint at 3yo and has produced a Marygate Stakes victress in Janina.
Given that background and a solid sire in Barathea you wonder why she only
cost €75,000. Perhaps a bit small.
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In summary, try not to over-complicate this one and Above Limits
ought to win unless there is a remarkably strong newcomer. Exotic Beauty
the most interesting newcomer and watch for strong support (say 4/1 and
under) for She's Ok, just in case.
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