-
Virtual Paddock = Pontefract (Little
Perisher, Maidtorun, Roi De Vitesse & Walkingonthemoon)
-
==============
-
The Pontefract Conditions race has a much bigger field than usual
with 4-5 runners typical in recent years. This has led to the draw having
no effect and some intermittent paces in the races. Between 2002-6 the
5 editions included some very good juveniles that rated OR100+ during the
season. German Group 2 winner Checkit won in 2002, Gimcrack winner Tony
James in 2004, Listed winner & Coventry Stakes 4th Sir Xaar in 2005
and Coventry Stakes victor Helvellyn in 2006. Added to that Listed race
winner Parkview Love was runner-up in 2003. That set did not beat fields
full of similar quality horses but typically won as comfortably as the
pace would allow from OR80s types. A big point to note is that the list
of good horses come from the usual Major Southern (Channon & Clive
Brittain) & Major Northern (Johnston & particularly Bryan Smart)
stables. None of those have a runner this year.
-
The last two years have been thinner fields with the winner given the normal
OR94-5 BHA rating that a Conditions race winner will get as a minimum.
The 2008 winner Burnwynd Boy failed in better races and his mark was back
down below OR90 by season end (i.e. the OR88 point for a top end handicapper
that can look better on precociousness). Last year's winner was Shampagne,
a much bigger model, who managed to win off OR96 in a Southwell nursery.
Shampagne is the Major Southern source & Burnwynd Boy the one surprise
and the rating suggest he was lucky to find a weak edition to win.
-
Looking at this year's ten runners for those likely OR100+ types or even
the OR95 ones (whether inflated or not as time would prove) you do not
come to a long list. The 'Major Southern' line is represented by Barry
Hills Be Invincible who was a debut winner in a Windsor race. The
14 horses that finished behind him have not managed a single success since
and the race looks poor. The one major chance of a better subsequent run
came from Monsieur Joe, the runner-up at Windsor, at Ascot recently but
he was thrashed by Little Perisher while looking unsuited by the
Ascot concrete, err, going. Well drawn in 3 and from the 'right' type of
source he appears the likely better on in the field. But, the niggle about
the form is added to by the hold up Run Style he showed first time. If
he runs like that he will get shuffled back and need to make ground in
the straight. He showed a round action at Windsor rather than being a straight
speed horse so the ground remaining with some 'Soft' in it would be an
advantage. An incomplete profile.
-
The other winners look more OR80s types unless Little Perisher really is
improving as much as his Ascot romp suggested. That race was run in a moderate
time and you suspect that the ones he beat were less good & ready than
the sources they came from would suggest. The Noseda representative - Key
Art - has been beaten in a low level race this week while looking less
than willing, for example. On the plus side he is in form and seems to
be likely to stay the 6f well. On the downside he ran less well on a more
technical course at Brighton & on softer going and has improved for
a straight blast on GF. He does not look the OR90+ type on review but this
race may not need that level to win if Be Invincible is not a high class
one. He has a high draw so will have to work early to get across to a tracking
position.
-
Shark Man has looked too slow for 5f despite blagging a win and
ran better stepped up to 6f last time. He also looked in great condition
and thriving. On the other side he was beaten by a newcomer last time and
the form level not strong. Short of quality probably and more trouble with
him drawn wide. Similar comments for Maidtorun & Roi De Vitesse
who owed wins to outlasting speedier rivals, who had blown themselves out
front-running, over 5f. The latter is not up to the normal class to in
this and almost certainly not to the upper OR80s that might win this one.
-
Walkingonthemoon was very ready for debut and got an easy lead on
soft ground and won well. As with Be Invincible the horses close behind
him have not won in later efforts. One exception is Little Perisher who
improved notably later and beat Walkingonthemoon when he ran poorly at
Ascot. Urban Clubber never got involved in a ragged Haydock race
FTO at 2/1 and not looking a better type for the connections. The only
previous runner for the trainer in this event had a similar profile and
finished 3rd of 4 and proved an OR80 winner with development.
-
Without the normal 'Major Northern' sources with a runner there are two
from Karl Burke's stable which is getting stronger and has had a juvenile
Group winner in each of the last two years. His link up with the Gittins
family has led to more 2yos and some very expensive ones. Two of them are
here and both on debut. Both were bough at the Keeneland sales in the US.
Silenceofthewind
($330,000) looks the first string and is a sibling of the useful 2yo Francesca
D'Gorgio who made the first 4 at Royal Ascot in her year. Irish Jugger
($220,000) has another solid profile but on jockeys looks the lesser of
the pair. Now, Mr Burke's stable has just come into 2yo form with two STO
wins this week. Sometime soon we should expect him to run some better ones,
in a short batch, that can win maidens in the North FTO. That is a key
point because these two are in a high class maiden, at least, with several
other winners. Mr Burke will treble his number of Conditions debuts with
these two so he is changing his approach as the quality improves.
-
The other newcomer is Music Of The Moor for Tom Tate who gets regular
FTO winners but not in conditions races and usually from a bit later in
the year. He has said in interview that he has his best group of 2yos this
year and the first to run was 4th on debut and won well STO. If this one
is much better than that one he could be an OR90+ type.
-
In summary, an unusual edition which you can turn around to the
light in various ways and the usual ways of looking at these races do not
really work. The previous winners do not look proven high class horses
on their way to better races nor with obvious great amounts of improvement.
The one exception is Be Invincible from a typical producer of that type.
But, he did not convince FTO that the likely hurly burly of this race will
be best for him or that he is that high class enough to win anyway. Little
Perisher comes out best of the other previous runners but the sort of horse
supporting may well leave you cursing for falling into the trap as a bigger
one leans on by in the last furlong. Debut runners rarely win these type
of races but they are normally higher class than this one might be. Music
Of The Moor to prove better on the day than the two Burke US breds
although one of them may be well above average in the long term.
-
==================
-
Two 6f Maiden fillies races on the day with the one at Newmarket
looking a thin affair. The maidens at the course can often cut up and be
weaker than you would think. How many hundreds of fillies are trained near
the course but will be going around country to make their debuts? Two of
them have gone to Haydock rather than 15 minutes across the Heath today.
Ad to that the fact that many stables will avoid these sort of maidens
because they will attract higher BHA ratings because of the 'Race Standardisation'
mindset. Finish 3 lengths behind the 'Cecil thing' in this race because
of a slow pace and it ends up winning a Listed race and you will spend
the rest of the season trying to get your OR67 filly down to something
like it's true rating.
-
This race has one of those 'something has to win it' feels but by being
in front as the music stops rather than being here to seize the opportunity.
If Bell's Ocean had not run in the 6f maiden here last week she
would be a good favourite. A sound debut and the 3rd who was well behind
her has won at Goodwood this week. But, there did not seem to be any excuse
for her defeat. Drawn a bit wide but got an ok position in 5th at halfway
but could produce nothing for the final 2 furlong effort and lost ground
and ended up fifth as two went by and two faded back past her. Damaged
goods that might win by just returning to her debut form but can not be
relied on.
-
Marco Botti runs Fasilight here on STO having sent the better profiled
Ambrogina
up to Haydock. Fasilight drifted from 7/1 to 12/1 FTO and looked too green
to compete in a moderate race. The trainer seems more of a 'Peak STO' operator
now but this one showed little first go. The other runner with previous
experience is Gulf Punch who is the Hannon second string and an
unlikely winner.
-
A set-up where an OR79 filly and reasonably prepare could win. But the
three newcomers come from more relaxed debuts trainers. Using that phrase
about Henry Cecil would be ridiculous to contemplate in past years but
he has become more of a develop-with-racing trainer as he has had less
horses and less quality. The debut wins these days seem to come in later
season with high class ones rather than being the highly prepared wins
of the past. Walk On Water is his first runner of the year and at
a typical time in the last few seasons. The trainer has run his first or
second runner of the year in the equivalent race in each of the last four
years. In 2005 the non-winner Isis was 3rd at 11/4 when the Market still
though he was a strong FTO handler. In 2006 Lady Lily was 6th at 12/1 and
won two races 4-5TO (Cecil and starting winning fourth time out, mindboggling
in the past). Next year it was the non-winner Dea Celestis 3rd at 9/2 and
last year Honest Quality was 3rd at 5/2 (beaten by a surprise FTO winner)
on her way to winning up to Listed level.
-
Which means that Walk On Water has been chosen because she is ready to
run rather than for definite quality and will not be wound up. She's an
owner bred by a good sire in Exceed And Excel out of a miling dam. A solid
profile but likely to be short priced in this field and beatable. Richard
Hannon also rarely has 6f debut winners and when he does they are high
class runners at certain times of the year. He has just entered a period
towards the end of May when he will run a batch of 6f debuts. They will
be of variable quality but rarely win. Hidden in the batch will be a high
class one that can win but the Market often misses it. Tarita is
just an average profile and a start out debut that would win by accident
rather than being better class.
-
David Elsworth also rarely gets debut winners although the FTO runners
are often competent and I'mneverwrong is a breeze-up purchase so
may well be more forward than his average. By a solid sprint 2yo sire but
a cheap purchase so likely to be light on quality.
-
In summary, a difficult race where the Market may be quite close
between 2-3 of them unless there is a strong word for one of them. The
sort of set-up where form & trends fail to come up with a strong possible
and the paddock can be very important to strip out the obvious non-winners.
The Cecil filly may well end up favourite on his reputation but will probably
come up short.
-
==============
-
The other fillies' 6f race is at Haydock and has an interesting
setup. Mark Johnston has run debut fillies in the last two years with one
placed and one unplaced. This year he runs Baileys Vision who was
a plugging on second in a weak Warwick race on debut. That race was run
in a slow time with a heap of moderate fillies together at the finish.
Not the exciting promise that a Johnston runner with a '2' next to it's
name can lazily instil. The trainer would typically start a lower OR70s
type in that sort of race and she did not look any better than that. In
general you would hope that she would be a short price and go looking for
an alternative. But, a word of caution follows.....
-
What on earth was going on in the 6f maidens run at Haydock yesterday??
The first division saw horses finishing remarkably tired and the free running
newcomer Whelkeen Rock literally reduced to a rolling walk. The first three
home had three things in common. All were on STO and probably had a fitness
advantage that was required in such tough conditions (soft ground and?
a stiff headwind). They were drawn 9-11 in an 11 runner field but that
was not any real reason for the result. Most important was that
they were 9th to 11th through halfway well off the stiff pace and out of
the wind. The only horse that actually approximated staying 6f - Ingleby
Spirit - won by some way but in a time going on towards a quick 7f time.
After seeing that the chances of slow starting & trundle through at
the finish Daniella De Bruijn in Division II looked a lot more appealing.
An attritional race beckoned rather than a test of quality.
-
Which means that Baileys Vision may have a key advantage in staying 6f
unless the conditions have improved a lot by being on STO. But, she has
a chance of chucking that away if she starts pacemaking in typical Johnson
juvenile style.
-
If that complication did not exist you could pick out an alternates list
of Ambrogina, Refuse To Wait, Sweet Mirasol &
Just
The Tonic as possible alternatives to a beatable Baileys Vision. A
brief summary because they represent well known themes. Refuse To Wait
is on STO and a typically non competitive debut for a Tim Easterby horse
FTO. On the plus side she plugged on late to record a low level of form
but unpressed to achieve it. A more each-way alternative to a short priced
Johnston horse. The two Easterby runners in the 6f Divisions yesterday
finished 3rd (similar filly who was held up) and 5th (Flaneur always going
to be beaten after steaming off in from in first time blinkers in the conditions
& ran quite well considering that).
-
The others are debut runners and on the evidence of racing yesterday that
will make it difficult for them. The Kevin Ryan debuts yesterday ran poorly
and drifted in the Market. For about 4 furlongs Whelkeen Rock looked to
be going best but folded hideously having set a strong pace. Sweet Mirasol
is another debut in a period when he should slip in a couple of good ones
but Ted Durcan riding rather than Neil Callan a concern. Mick Channon may
not have the better types to show us on the recent evidence but as soon
as you start thinking that the next one wins. Just The Tonic is a strong
looking profile in a race he has had placed debuts in before. Marco Botti
ships Ambrogina here rather than the Newmarket race and you wonder
why. He has been complimentary about her in comments made and this ought
to be one of his better debuts rather than the educational debuts he does
more of these days.
-
In summary, conditions yesterday made the 6f events look like NH
races at the finish. In that set-up Baileys Vision has some advantage but
is overall a filly to oppose. Refuse To Wait the preferred alternative
being on STO and a good improvement expected. Some interesting newcomers
from stables who should be showing us the odd 'Ascot' style debut although
recent efforts have not been encouraging.
-
=========================
-
Another 6f at Brighton and remember that debut winners are relatively
rare at the track. But, also worth considering that a good part of the
reason for this is that few trainers send FTO 2yos there and certainly
not higher class ones. When they do send quality then can win FTO as Mick
Channon has proved this season with Grand Zafeen. The field here feature
two with previous runs and Midnight Uno looks light on quality overall
although will be competent.
-
Barzan is a STO runner for Tom Dascombe and among the things that
impress about this trainer is that he knows a lot of wrinkles and uses
them. If a certain part of the track at a course is preferred he and his
jockey will use it. If front running will confer an advantage they will
often front run. If there are weak races at Pattern level here and abroad
they seem to find a solid number of them. The drop-the-average-to-moderate-one
to Brighton STO to try to get a win is well known and here we all are with
Barzan. A 5lb apprentice on and all reminiscent of the Neville Callaghan
approach.
-
Barzan was the most thoroughly prepared at Newbury where he made his debut
in wet conditions. He tried to lead and make the most of his fitness advantage
but was brushed aside by the high class Canford Hills and faded back a
little tamely. The notes B2yoR got back had the number "OR70" on it which
is about right for a horse dropped to Brighton STO. Consider that OR75-6
would be an 'Average' maiden and up to around OR85 if you win at better
courses, or by extended distances or beat Stoute/bin Suroor/Gosden second
strings with expensive credentials even though they are garbage. OR70 means
you have more oomph than an average seller or claimer winner but will struggle
to win an open maiden without getting lucky. The 'Eternal Placer' type
that has three places from four runs in maidens by which time even the
dullest pundit will feel emboldened to suggest he "..is looking a little
exposed...." but without being able to explain in any concrete way
what that means.
-
So, the Dascombe horse with a 5lb apprentice is just the sort of barrier
a newcomer should expect to run into at Brighton. If a trainer sends another
OR70 horse who is 10-15 points short of his best rating because of lack
of race fitness & nous he will not win. Everyone can then stand around
blaming the undulations and turns at Brighton as the reason when it is
a quality issue probably. If you send an OR85 horse he might well get past
a competent Barzan type. It will not be pretty to watch but one of those
finishes you watch where you know that one horse will 'let go' two strides
before the line.
-
In that context any chance of a better debut? Wearing the patch bare to
Mick Channon one possibility is Hairspray. He really must have at
least one good one to show us and this one has been talked up a bit over
the months. Perhaps she has not develop as well as they hoped but she should
go well. The other interesting one is for David Simcock. He is one of a
rash of young trainers with 'Dubai Tentacles' background who have worked
around the Godolphin set up at times. Like many of them he turns out better
than the normal amount of fizzy and taut 2yos. When he first started this
meant that he got debut winners and places with good ones. He now has more
horses and many relatively expensive for Arab owners from his previous
contacts.
-
He has just started running 2yos this year with a moderate debut yesterday,
for non Arab owners, at the Haydock endurance trials. Today he runs Dubawi
Phantom here & Arabian Pride at Newcastle for Arab owners.
As you would expect this one is a son of new sire Dubawi who ought to have
a good year if his sales results last year mean he can produce racehorses
(not a 100% correlation, just ask Hawk Wing). The trainer has not run a
FTO horse at the course before but has a strong record otherwise with 3
wins and 4 places from 7 runners. This one will probably be a smaller model
and neat if he is at the course but a possible for an OR80+ type to trouble
Barzan.
-
Worth also noting D'Urberville who is relatively expensive by Roger
Ingram standards. The trainer has few 2yos but the debuts are competent
and he used to get FTO wins when he had an OR78+ type. Running this early
and has his first runner he is likely to be a competitive 2yo to assess
for the future.
-
In summary, watching Barzan plugging along (I'm bowling, no you're
not) would not be a pretty conveyance for your money. 6f allows the time
for a better type to get to the front if the quality is there. Dubawi Phantom
a solid possible and Hairspray would be if the over prepared FTO attempt
for Channon.
-
=====================
-
The 6f maiden at Newcastle brings together the 3rd placers from
both Divisions of the first 6f races of the season at Haydock. The races
were run in similar times but with entirely different shapes. Reeds
Bay ran in the more conventional affair where Kingdom Of Light was
allowed to set an even pace which he wound up after halfway. He pulled
clear and the horses who tried to go with him paid for it to some extent.
This allowed the placed horses to make places late on without getting involved.
Reeds Bay was 20/1 which for a John Fretwell runner suggests little was
expected. A positive for the 4th having won since but just an ok
debut and not a strong profile for this race. Preference for Lucky Rave
who was helped by being 5 lengths off the lead at halfway and made ground
as the leaders collapsed. But he appeared to make a real forward move to
lead into the final furlong before fading late. He achieved a little more
than Reeds Bay and has a similar amount of scope to improve.
-
The others with form do not greatly appeal unless Hairs Vital is
actually a solid runner. His trainer has always seemed a very thoughtful
operator & placer so the debut in a conditions race over 5f seemed
odd. When the run was so incompetent and the fade so bad followed by a
step up to 6f on an entirely different track you wonder what was going
on. Perhaps the owner wanted a day out at Goodwood. The Market should be
useful in this regard and he ought to be in single figures if he is actually
a solid 6f runner.
-
Two interesting debuts including the one from David Simcock's Arabian
Pride as covered above. The most interesting though is another from
trainer Tom Tate. Count Bertoni is another bigger type by the sire
Bertolini that the trainer likes and he has said he has solid talent. A
better debut s possibility at longer odds.
-
In summary the better of the Haydock STOs should set a reasonable
standard but not unreachable by a good debut type. Count Bertoni preferred
to Arabian Pride in that respect.
|