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This year's field for the male's Conditions race at Beverley looks
typical in that it normally attracts a mix of sub-Listed level performers
in the long term. The bigger ones in the field end up being late OR80s
sprint handicappers in the long term while the more precocious types will
end up on in the lower OR70s and below if they carry on racing. Everymanforhimself
is a former winner and still a good class handicapper and typical of the
better type of winner. He beat a field that included what are now 'old
lags' of varying states of repair like Steelcut & Dickie Le Davoir.
Also in that field was a Fretwell owned horse called Mood Music who is
now in France and winning Group races. The beaten horses have included
Captain Gerrard as well but that is not typical of the quality & a
reminder, after the absence of the Bryan Smart runner in yesterday's Pontefract
conditions race, of just what an important source of quality in the North
that stable has become. Where are all the 2yos this year? Oh, and was that
the same Bolton Hall as beat Tournedos & Joseph Henry in 2004 winning
over hurdles the other day?
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That said this looks a fascinating set-up whatever the quality. The draw
has been kind to four of the five principles and shifted Archers Road,
who arguably has the best form, just far enough out to even things if he
is that much better. That assumes we can discount Ron The Don, Janeiro,
Island Express & Eeny Mac to surprise the more proven
talents. Four of the five best types have front run or pressed in second
place in the past to suggest that nothing is going to get an easy time
in front.
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Which brings us to Fratellino who is best drawn in 9 and got an
easy time leading at York last time. For various reasons he was left to
make his own pace and given 2-3 lengths lead for free there. He also seemed
to be especially well suited to firmer going and moved very well on it.
He won on this course FTO to add to the positives. The poor run are Chester
can probably be put down to getting a slow break and having to make ground
wide against the pace to some extent. No obvious excuse though for his
effort at Ascot where he just seemed to be beaten for ability by a group
that included Archers Road. From his draw he will presumably participate
in the pacemaking.
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At York the only horse to respond after halfway to make any ground on Fratellino
was Ventura Cove who receiving 4lbs then and 2lbs more here. That
was right at the start of the period when trainer Fahey's period of better
runs with juveniles was beginning. He did not look fit enough that day.
On debut he had been outpaced by Dispol Keasha and stayed on in the final
furlong to close up to her. That filly left the Marygate field gasping
for 3.5 furlongs to make the point that failing to match her for basic
early pace is not a great problem. At York he was held up an allowed Fratellino
the easy lead and again took time to respond later in the race before going
on well enough in the final furlong. In this field he is again likely to
be behind the pace. But a fair case can be made that he will be the best
profile to stay on in the final furlong if the pacemakers soften each other
up. This course should suit him better than York on a faster day
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Hearts Of Fire met Archers Road in the first race of the season
and beat him comfortably after they were in the first two places through
halfway. Archers Road faded more to extend the distances and has show improved
form since. Heart Of Fire seemed to run less well and faded tamely when
trying to give weight next time and pressing Iver Bridge Lad & Soccer
for the lead. He has had a break since then and it would be interesting
to wee how he has progressed physically. He did not look a robust model
at Doncaster and the Newmarket run may have come to soon for him.
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In typical trainer style Archers Road will be running his 7th race and
the second in 5 days. He has beaten Fratellino on both occasions he has
met him and his second places recently have been to Monsieur Chevalier,
Star Rover & Red Jazz who would be high on any list of the best performers
seen so far. So he is consistent but comes up short when faced with a better
quality on. He also seemed to have lost his enthusiasm a little in his
last two races and probably not run as well as he can. He is another front-runner
or presser.
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The links between the five principles is completed by the flawed Lees
Anthem. While you like always to be professional B2yoR tends to have
a soft spot for wobbly underdogs like this one. In both races he has run
he has shown a lot of basic pace but it only lasts for about 3.5 to 4 furlongs
before he starts getting wobbly. At Newcastle on debut he was closing up
on an idling Archers Road before wobbling through the rail. At Doncaster
last time he accepted being held up for a short while before taking off
with his jockey and going clear. Those behind included a clear STO winner
at Redcar, the Marygate runner-up and another solid STO placer to again
confirm Lees Anthem has some real ability if he can ever finish a race
off properly.
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In summary, how to break the top five up. Regulars will know that
B2yoR does not really believe in Fratellino for the long term and he is
not going to get an easy time here. His inferiority to a full force
Archers Road before his apparent improvement at York may still be there.
Ventura Cove is a horse B2yoR has a lot of time for and one to follow but
has always looked more of a 6f type. He should be much better in condition
here but even on this stiffer track you tend to think the best of the real
5f types will be a little too quick for him. He would probably need a pace
war to win past faders. Hearts Of Fire could win if back to his debut form
but a relatively tame effort last time and a long break mean the paddock
would have to show strong positives to be interested. Which means that
Archers Road just comes out on top and the hope that he will be held up
second rank from a slightly lower draw. The draw plus the fact that he
has looked less than his best in attitude in his last two runs would mean
he would not be a confident choice. The paddock will be important. And,
finally. Recommending Lees Anthem is not a sensible thing to do on this
stiff course given he has looked, to put it politely, a sort runner and
has a trainer with no record of improving matters. But, a throwaway each-way
type to remind you why you got interested in the game in the first place.
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The 5f maiden at Beverley is a Class 4 affair but looks a weak field
and there have been plenty of Class 5 races, and the odd Class 6, run in
the south which have been stronger. It may well be 'Class Dropping' for
an unplaced runner in this group to go to a Class 5 race in the south but
most likely going up in quality. In general the difference between Paddock
Reviewing fields of 2yos in the North & South is marked and the former
with a much higher proportion of modest athletes and easier to pick out
the competitive ones. For example, one southern Paddock guy turned up at
Ripon in later season and people were still going on about a David Simcock
2yo called Desert Phantom who had won the Listed rae there. Such size,
such muscles and so on like he was a different species. Great fun for the
southern guy to wind them up by telling them that at Newmarket, Newbury,
Salisbury etc. they all look like that and what was the fuss about? Not
quite true, of course, but the Northern Paddocks are an enclosed circuit
of their own in many ways.
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The most expensive runners here cost around £15,000 which is cheap
even in in the current financial climate. No 'Major Southern' reps and
none from the likes of Smart & Johnston. Unlike the conditions race
the draw has been less helpful with the three runners with placed form
drawn 2 & 4-5. Pinnacle Lad has shown the most early pace to
get to the rail if he wants to having done the same last time and shown
early pace at Bath as well. At Ripon he raced too freely early and the
leading pair were three clear at halfway with the field well spread. If
he can relax more in the lead this time then he sets a very good standard
for the others. Orpen Arms & Rio Caribe were both well
behind strong paces in their races where they placed and plugged on past
faders. The filly Orpen Arms is preferred to improve most for the run and
be the best opponent for Pinnacle Lad. But, from a wider draw she will
have to show more early pace to challenge the level of Pinnacle Lad.
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Beyond those three you are quickly into low ranking profiles and more speculative
types. Of the newcomers Mick Easterby really does know how to 'ready
one for debut' and probably did back in the 1960s. He has already had a
66/1 second this year with his fist 2yo runner and his second managed 5th.
Which means that as his 3rd runners Star Ablaze might be usable
at her level and more competent than the average in the field. As a sibling
of two OR60s 5f 2yo winners by Firebreak he could easily be another OR60
type. John Quinn does not go for prepared debut runners by comparison and
his FTO winner this year owed a lot to a weak race and the vagaries of
the Chester track position pottery. The filly Bubbelas is another
cheap one by a new sire and a sibling to a 5f 2yo so might be usable in
time.
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If there is a real lurker then it ought to be Sir Christie who showed
nothing FTO. But, he is well drawn and another sibling to lots of 5f 2yos
who should improve this time. A more believable STO improver than Ananda
Kanda (at Haydock yesterday in a dreadful quality, Northern, affair).
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In summary, Pinnacle Lad presents a strong profile if he can race
with more restraint and get towards the rail without too much effort. Star
Ablaze mos interesting of the newcomers & if a real surprise occurs
the Sir Christie has the best profile to be 'It'.
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When the 6f races started at Haydock in early May the Preview spent a long
time pondering when we might se some better 2yos debut at that distance.
A few key maidens tend to be targeted by the 'Right' sources through May
with a view to Royal Ascot prospects. So far we have not been bowled over
by strong debut efforts but here are probably the best we have seen :-
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York 6f Maiden = No Hubris won from Flying Statesman
& Beethoven. The winner seems likely to be the best of the Cole
early 2yos and likely to go to the Coventry Stakes. Beethoven was an Aiden
O'Brien debut and the question is whether he was a 'sighter' or the high
class development miler who will be back for Royal Ascot? Not proven either
way by the solid, but unexciting, debut.
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Newbury May 6f Maiden Divisions = Canford Cliffs looked the best
of the Hannon newcomers with a taking performance and signs of a real Change-of-Pace
typical of a high class one. Second Division less taking but Alrasm a very
good prospect when beaten by the readier Meglio Ancora who may be more
Conditions level type.
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Goodwood late May maiden = A race which used to be targeted by bigger
stables but less so these days in it's Class 5 guise. A very professional
performance from Goodwood Maestro and a positive view of his prospects
to improve. Big Audio much better than he was able to show in that
race.
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If you were putting together a list of Coventry Stakes possibles now what
else would you add to the best of that group? The obvious ones would be
Monsieur Chevalier (perhaps Norfolk Stakes bound) & Red Jazz.
Some interest in Niran given the fact he is a debut winner for Clive
Brittain but Shark Man's thumping in the Pontefract Conditions race yesterday
puts that debut effort into less good light. As an aside the Pontefract
event has produced a Coventry Stakes in 2006 but these year's edition looked
low quality.
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Looking back to 2008 and the first eight home would split as follows :-
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Art Connoisseur = early season 5f maiden & conditions race winner (Monsieur
Chevalier & Red Jazz this year's equivalents)
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2 x Irish reps = Bolger's Intense Focus & O'Brien's Peter Tchaikovsky
(the limited sighter type not the Oratorio, Rip Van Winkle, Henrythenavigator
model)
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Lord Shanakill = early season 5f runner & blossomer for Karl Burke.
He has shown two solid 5f winners but not obviously this type.
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Himalya & Awinnersgame = better types from high class batch of early
debuts for Jeremy Noseda. The trainer has just run two duff ones to date
so the 'Form Wave' is still to break.
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Orizaba = Typical mid-May over-prepared Debut winner for Mick Channon of
the type we have been waiting for but has not arrived yet. Perhaps he does
not have the horses.
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Shaweel = Best of the Johnston early 6f debuts that started at York in
May & placed. Trainer ran Original Dancer at York who looked a big
galloper rather than a 6f class type.
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Iamthebest = Arab owned try on from occasional trainer. Still trying it
on at Dubai over the Winter.
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Which means we have Hannon, Barry Hills & Cole as regulars but are
missing Johnston, Channon, Noseda & Johnny G possibles. Still time
for those to appear over the next two weeks but perhaps they have already
run in two cases? Which brings us to the Newmarket 6f maiden and
what to make of the runners in it that started at Haydock in the first
6f races - Running Mate & Step In Time. Remember that
both the trainers involved - Gosden & Johnston - will often run a real
good one in their early 6f runners although they seldom win FTO.
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Gosden had two expensive ones in the Haydock Divisions in a race he had
used for Royal Ascot runner-up Seaway in 2008. Isdaar drifted in the Market
before Division I and ran deplorably while just looking moderate. Running
Mate was supported and the vibes were that he was ok. He ran ok in a race
with a strong pace and plugged on as the pacemakers stalled badly late
on. But, the form was poor overall and the horse just behind him - Ginger
Ted - has been beaten at Southwell since. On the plus side he faded less
than Urban Clubber who ran a similar race early on and that one ran well
enough at Pontefract yesterday. Moderate runs by trainer 2yos 'early' in
his season are common and often the early start tells you Gosden saw something
in them even if they show ordinary forms early. Go back to 2008 and Donativum
was beaten miles on debut by Orizaba at 14/1 and then at Leicester. Unplaced
again at Royal Ascot and started his winning & improvement from August
onwards but Gosden knew he was good but took time to nail it down. Overall,
Running Mate ought to be a good one and the most probable winner here.
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Step In Time did not get involved in the pace at Haydock in his Division
and trundled through to 2nd late one. The third there - Reeds Bay - who
ran a similar race was thrashed at Newcastle yesterday. The 4th -Kylladie
- has won since but he forced the pace and faded so showed different promise.
He should improve but overall a less taking profile than Running Mate.
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Tiradito was held up FTO to presumably try to get him to settle.
At Salisbury last time he tore off in the lead on the rail to confirm that
view but he faded so early that running a bit free did not seem enough
of an excuse. A solid size but you would need to see him put a full race
together to support him. Fantastic Prince is a medium size and neat
but looked mentally very immature at Newbury and ran poorly in difficult
conditions. An OR70+ type with development but not likely to snap together
STO on the evidence from Newbury.
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Bryan Meehan has made a slow start to the season but tends to choose his
Newmarket debuts with care. The expensive He's Invincible has one
of those unbalanced pedigrees where the dam's side is all OR50s quality
which makes you wonder what he must look like to have made €120,000.
The trainer rarely has debut winners this early unless they are close
to Group class so a good type for the future but an unlikely winner on
the day. Rumool is yet another Clive Brittain debut for owner Saeed
Manana and a brother to Young Pretender - a later season 2yo FTO winner
for Gosden. He would have cost more than 40,000gns to retain (or sell)
if he had been a high class model you would think. Another solid debut
although an unlikely winner.
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In summary, a first chance to directly compare the Haydock Divisions
that was denied when Lucky Rave was a non-runner yesterday. Either, or
both, of Running Mate & Step In Time could be better class horses on
their early 6f debuts for their stables. On balance, preference for Running
Mate to prove that today.
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