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Seven races today and mostly moderate to average level with a few
possibles for better debuts and horses for the future. The most interesting
race looks to be the 5f maiden at Carlisle. A lot of the interest
depends upon unproven potential and profiles but the connections involved
increase the belief there might be a good 2yo or two in the event. Of those
with form the least appealing is Mr Smithson despite his third place
at Catterick last time in a race producing winners. He looked OR60s on
preview and has not show real pace for 5f in any run. Reliable to run to
his level and still be trundling on at the finish on a stiff course but
not good enough.
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Two more interesting runners who have not made the first 3 yet with Mal
And Dave & Olympic Ceremony. The first of those was typically
uncompetitive for a trainer debut so far this year (likely to change in
later season) and was in a good race with a strong pace anyway. A brief
effort before fading late on. A less good effort overall STO at Haydock
but still with some promise. 6th through halfway over 6f he again showed
the ability to back a brief effort to get to fourth entering the final
furlong. He then faded back to 6th and drops to 5f here. Two of the horses
ahead of him have won since with another disappointing. Looking at both
his races he looks to be the 'Changeover Point' horse in both. Which means
he is probably an OR68-73 type & a bit too slow for a fast 5f while
not staying 6f yet. Stick him on a stiff track over 5f in a Northern maiden
& take your chances. An ok proposition but something should come up
a bit better and he would normally finish 3rd or 4th.
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Olympic Ceremony made his 5f debut for '5f FTO Master' Richard Fahey in
earlier May when he was having a run on duff kick-offs. The later 5f debuts
have finished 2nd (twice) & then the first debut success. On profile
he can improve to above Mal And Dave's level if he can put a complete race
together. The first race he ran in is misleading in form terms which the
better horses going too hard early on on sticky ground which did not suit
some of the field. The winner was a 66/1 shot already proven poor and beaten
in a weak seller since to confirm the view. She was well off the pace duel
at Hamilton and trundled into a win past dead horses. One of those beaten
- Rock Of Love - has run better since on a flat track on firmer going and
you would hope Olympic Ceremony could do the same. He raced freely downhill
in centre track and faded early on the uphill stretch. A positive on size
& range and should do much better here from an inside draw.
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There are five newcomers with profiles to be winners at some level during
the year & all have some positives to reach a competitive level for
the day with the 'Form' level beatable unless Olympic Ceremony is OR79+
& the Market would probably indicate that with support to under 3/1.
The obvious place to start is with the filly Ceedwell with recent
Previews musing on where the Bryan Smart 2yos are. Remember that he normally
produces a batch of competitive debuts during May and the best of them
will go to Royal Ascot. One early debut win in April and one drifting debut
4th so far this month. This one is a reasonably expensive one by a good
sire out of a 5f 2yo winning dam for owners whom he does get FTO wins for.
A solid profile but the trainer has not started his best ones at the course
and as a filly against colts a bit suspect.
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Mark Johnston's debuts this season have been variable and it looked like
they were improving in early May with a debut win and two second places.
The most recent debuts have been over 6f and well beaten. The two second
placers have both won STO probably indicating that they placed on ability
as much as improved preparation. Mandrake is the second runner for
one of Sheikh Mohammed's sons after the first was The Hermitage (supported
& second on debut and won at Newmarket since). This one a half brother
to a high class 5f 2yo for the Sheikh who placed second FTO out of a solid
sire who has two debut wins this year. This ought to be a better debut
for the trainer.
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Kevin Ryan's had a slow start with his 2yos and just 1 winner (of two race)
to date. He runs Haltela here with an apprentice riding. The horse
is a sibling of two sprint 2yo winners for the trainer in 2007-8 with Kersaint
and early FTO winner and Sweet Smile fourth in a tough maiden. A possible
for the higher class type to compete for the win off a normal trainer preparation
but short overall. Anne Duffield has a good record at the course and prepares
debut runners well. With an increase in string quality recently she has
made a slow start with just one runner to date. That one a good third on
the first effort. Cian Rooney has just a middling pedigree &
profile and probably more one to watch for promise.
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Oh, and a possible Lurker in the rest and a bit more 'visible' than the
likes of Ananda Kanda & Mon Brav (ok, the Market knew a bit about that
one). Benny The Bear anyone? An owner bred so one to judge on size
in the preliminaries but the trainer and pedigree can get surprise debut
wins and places. Mr Moffatt does not run many 2yos but when they have ability
it does show FTO. This one is by minor sire Rambling Bear who had an April
FTO winner in 2005 with The Bear trained by Moffatt. This one is the first
foal of a dam who was fourth in the Brocklesby and won STO in early April,
again for the same trainer. So, if this one has any ability it should show
here.
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In summary, a fascinating race on set-up which, if living up to
the best potential, could produce a range of later winners. Mal And Dave
& Mr Smithson set an OR65-73 level on profile and beatable by a better
newcomer or improver. Olympic Ceremony the most likely STO step forward
and the Market some assistance. Most interest in Mandrake & Ceedwell
to provide the best debut effort & the Johnston horse may well be the
better quality one. Some chance of that ritual of looking down the racecard
after the race to see what that big thing finishing up the outside was,
What Bear?
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Trainers often target particular races and David Evans seems to have set
his heart on the claimer at Chepstow and has five of the ten runners.
He has won the equivalent race in 2005 & 2008 & been second in
2006-7. Go back to the 2002-4 period and his four runners have all made
the first four. Now, it probably isn't the race as such as the type of
string he has and the fact the course is the nearest to his stables. He
buys a lot of cheap yearlings and has them ready and fit for early season
and a few prove solid winners. Most prove to be moderate and worst and
this sort of race the best they can hope for. Time to drop the lesser types
to the right sort of race.
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A couple of his runners make appeal with the obvious one Transfixed
who has proved very reliable at this level. She does not have the physical
scope to improve but will run a solid race. The other one is Southern
Goddess who is well drawn near the stands' rail. Put in on the lowest
weight and with a good apprentice he has all the signs fo being teed up
to win this. Just a reasonable run on debut after a slow start but should
improve for 6f on pedigree overall.
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A couple of other trainers who do not wait to drop horses to this level
if the ability is not there seem to have the two possible improvers. Mick
Channon runs Alphacino who has looked to lack the pace for 5f in
two early runs steps up to 6f after a break. Her first run was up to competing
to win at this level but the last run was less good. A return to a straight
track should help but the undulations here a worry seeing as she got unbalanced
last time. One poor run at maiden level for Underworld Dandy and
Tom Dascombe puts him in a claimer. He did not look up to beating reliable
types at this level on the evidence of the first run but you tend to trust
the trainer to pitch him at the right level.
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In summary, Transfixed the yardstick to judge the others against.
True Red well drawn and up to 6f should get closer to that filly &
the best of the 'Class Dropper' from bigger stables should compete well.
On profile though Southern Goddess presents a solid case to scrape a value
win.
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The Leicester 5f maiden looks to be an average event at best (say
OR74 to win) and the runners with placed form not proven at that level.
Absolute Music ran in an Ascot maiden which featured a moderate
early pace and a later race sprint. Having been outpaced as the sprint
started she plugged on to get 2nd as the colt Monsieur Joe hung left. She
went ok through the race but not looking like a high class 'Ascot' dropper
for STO. The colt Key Art who recorded a similar form level was beaten
at Nottingham last week in a similar low 70s profile race. He trainer has
the debuts competent and she was so just limited improvement. Overall,
a solid standard but vulnerable to a better newcomer.
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Reddy To Star has had two goes and never got going on debut when
strongly supported. A better run last time but OR60s form overall and beaten
by a newcomer when the race went well for him. In general the trainer's
juveniles show most of what they have in the first two runs and not a review
positive either. Could win this if it is a moderate race not not one you
would be looking to support on achievements so far.
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Similar comments about Duke Of Rainford, Prettiest Star &
Ever So Bold. Difficult to know what to make of the first of those.
He was supported on debut like a good horse and then declared for the Lily
Agnes along with the connections My Mandy (the owner is based in the North
West & has many Chester & Haydock runners). Until he was a non-runner
the jockey that rides for the owner appeared to be going to ride him in
preference to My Mandy. That one had already shown solid placed form so
that seemed a surprise. If he really has been showing better form than
her he has a solid chance in this race. On preview on his Nottingham debut
he is a plus for bulk but compact & not that athletic in the way he
carried it. A possible improver & winner but need to see him prove
he can shift himself adequately on the way to the post.
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Prettiest Star got support late from 8/1 to 5/2 on debut and got left behind
in one of those Ripon tear-ups where a lot of little fillies belted off
as fast as they could. No progress back to the backwash from that unlike
the winner and just a little filly herself. A pass even in this lower level
field. Trainer Willie Muir is right on track at present having run a few
who have not been 'disgraced' but have not got competitive either. Probably
2 of the early 3 to run will win during the season but probably from July
onwards (as has been the case in 3 of the last 4 seasons). Ever So Bold
showed some promise in a tough race on debut when he would not have been
that ready (the first three in that race have won 5 races since including
three Novice races & interesting to track where the 4th appears next).
STO he blasted off in the lead taking a small group on a suicide mission
on the wrong (far) side at Folkestone so that run can be ignored. We should
see better from Ever So Bold here & a place confirm he is coming along.
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One interesting newcomer with Reg Hollinshead's Flaxen Lake. The
trainer would compete with John Dunlop for having his runners most fit
on debut and they can often compete well on that alone. Last year his first
two runners managed to place FTO at 40/1 & 20/1 and were OR60s types
overall and developed little from the first run. This readiness means that
when he has a 2yo with a bit more bulk and ability the FTO wins will come.
This one is a sibling to a number of winners for the trainer and by a little
used but competent sprint juvenile sire.
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In summary, a low level race unless one of the one with form steps forward
greatly. Reddy To Star less likely to do that than Absolute Music been
neither have a full profile. Some interest in Duke Of Rainford to prove
he is better than My Mandy if the athleticism is ok. In a lower level set-up
like this and OR60s debut run from Flaxen Lake may well place & if
he is a little better than that in preview a solid each-way type.
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On of those low level Auction races at Redcar where anything capable
of long-term OR60s may well be 'Royalty' in a low class profile. In some
ways an easy Paddock Review to do because of the range on show and with
many just not usable at any level. But, can be tricky if you end up having
to choose between a lot of limited little ones. The sort of field where
anything with a bit of size & bulk needs to be taken seriously amongst
the rabbits even if it looks Committee designed. Oh, and the sort of field
to look at, in all probability, which explains why northern paddock types
are still talking about Desert Phantom days later.
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Try this. The following links go to pictures of Gower
Sophia & Oondiri
who come out top on profile in the adjusted weights. This is Desert
Phantom from one of his 2008 appearances in the south. If you are at
Redcar tomorrow and there is something like him in the field then forget
about form, pedigrees & the like you have seen the winner. The problem
is that it is pretty unlikely but a bigger one even though crudely put
together still has a power advantage. The picture of Gower Sophia actually
makes her look a bit better than the notes but the guy leading her is pretty
short and she is small. But, a reliable type but with moderate form. My
find this 5f a bit fast but give you a solid run for your money.
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Oondiri looks weaker & crudely made by comparison & you wonder
how she has shown even the minor zip she has to date. The answer is probably
movement based and this - Picture
- shows that she does stretch out and use her length properly. But, not
the sort of physical type that betting on will get you very far with overall.
A fair chance that a previous runner such as Regardless can improve
to her level so not much of a standard barrier.
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So, the sort of field where you try to dig out a newcomer to beat Gower
Sophia or perhaps take her on with Social Grace. A Newmarket 'Class
Dropper' but actually showed lesser form on his debut. But that was in
a slow race and he did show enough to outpace three other little ones FTO
although left behind by The Hermitage. A similar profile level to Gower
Sophia & might be that bit bigger but a pass onto the next race rather
than support.
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Several newcomers from likely sources and time to give the 'Fratellino
lady' a ring to see which of Sands Of Dee, Itsthursdayalready
& the pick of the Barron trained pair (probably Tsar Bomber
over Melody In The Mist). Now that the Fahey debuts are up
to full force Sands Of Dee comes out tip on profile but need to check the
'physicals' as he only cost £14,000 as a 2yo.
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In summary, one of those difficult big field Redcar races lacking
strong form where the whole field spreads across the track and the long
distance camera angle makes it impossible to tell who is in front. Previous
form types look limited and vulnerable although Gower Sophia & Social
Grace look solid sorts in this level. The Fahey debut strength means Sands
Of Dee to be taken seriously and James Given can still do strong debuts
although FTO winners are rarer these days. The Market seems to see support
regularly for Barron runners, notably at this track, to the point where
the moves are unreadable which makes picking between his pair unseen a
crap-shoot, so to speak.
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Meanwhile at Goodwood we have a Class 4 Seller. What was the plan
here? A race of this type with a better than normal prize fund might be
trying to do something that other sellers are not. They are normally poor
affairs with limited horses that cannot win outside of the level and the
connections are happy to see them go. Is this an attempt to get some better
horses into the grade perhaps. If so, it has not worked. All five with
previous runs have already run in sellers or claimers and three of them
ran in the same seller at Bath to make the point forcibly that you do not
need to offer higher prize money to get them to attend.
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Boga beat Kate Skate & Safari Camp at Bath but
by a staying performance as the other two appeared to have more basic pace.
Safari Camp travelled best of the three through halfway but seems not to
stay much over 4 furlongs and faded badly in the final furlong as he had
before. Kate Skate got to the lead as Safari Camp went backwards but then
got overhauled by the slightly fuller figure of Boga. That filly then went
to Newcastle and travelled well in a 6f race with a below average pace.
She seemed to travel well at 6f pace on a stiff track and looked like she
might win. But, she faded into the final furlong and steps back to 5f on
a slicker test here. Boga is probably the best of the three but this test
does not look best suited to her Run Style. Safari Camp is on a more suitable
5f and should last longer but still a risky type to support.. You wonder
whether Kate Skate can hold Boga off this time receiving a bit of weight.
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Lady Lion has run presentably once but badly on the other outings
and not one to trust overall. On The Ring has his first run for
a new stable and seemed to try a little harder last time but in a slow
time and still could not win despite the problems Six Wives had getting
a clear run at him. With those five all proven as limited a good debut
from Do More Business could be enough and trainer Phelan does produce
competent debuts overall.
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In summary, despite the Class level we have the usual crew with
the best of the Bath trio preferred of those with previous runs. But none
have strong profiles and the only newcomer proving that bit better than
any of them would be a reasonable expectation.
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Division I of the Auction race at Goodwood allows a link back to
that 'Experts Eyecatchers' list from the 'Racing Post'. Remember that because
Master Of Dance was the youngest in the field for the Ascot race
he ran in FTO he would be very hard to beat in an 'ordinary Maiden' next
time. That was the central part of the argument. So, here he is in an Auction
race and Topweight and giving up to 11lbs to the others. Will the Expert
let us consider this as ordinary maiden? He showed nothing much on debut
is a race which was a 2 furlong sprint and allowed to drift back to last.
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You wonder, first off, whether he is even the stable's first string. Hannon
has two in the race and Richard Hughes rides Captain Cool. As with
the filly Crown, who has blossomed to win twice, the races that Captain
Cool ran in early season would suggest he was an OR80+ type and perhaps
even better. He was too inexperienced to get into a fast pace race with
previous winners FTO but did not show much. Next time he got Hughes riding
and an attacking ride at Windsor which would be typical if the jockey thought
he was ok and worth testing out. That went poorly with a bad fade in what
has proved a weak race. So, what quality is he?
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On balance you would expect that they are both ok but that the Hannon team
think they have fixed whatever was loose in Captain Cool. He should improve
and be closer to his full potential and a hold-up ride over 6f better designed
to let him show it. When Jimmy Fortune rides for the stable the horse is
usually ok which would suggest Master Of Dance will be ok in time but perhaps
not best today. But, he may not be far behind Captain Cool & the trainer
declared three for the race and he probably hoped they would be kept apart
and one of them paired with the moderate filly Flapjack who runs in Division
II alone. Hughes could then have ridden both of them. But, if we follow
the RP Expert we just have to back Master Of Dance because he is a bit
older than he was two weeks ago.
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Toga Tiger represents the solid alternative to the better Hannon
runner but the value is unlikely to be in is price and he was comfortably
beaten last time. On debut he ran well from the widest draw in a solid
race at Bath. Back at the same track he was given a hold up ride on firm
going again failed to make any ground on the newcomer filly Don't Tell
Mary. When he had gathered himself he managed to shake off the more limited
newcomers but never looked able to get back tot he filly and the jockey
accepted that. Stepping up to 6f should help and probably better for being
closer to the pace than being ridden for an ability to make 2-3 lengths
expressly which he may not own.
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Of the others respect for Super Duplex who made a competent and
anonymous (in the good sense of not notably good or bad but ok) for Pat
Phelan who has a newcomer in the later Seller today. That was in a better
race than this on profile and some improvement has him not far behind what
Toga Tiger has achieved. Bryan Meehan's whole stable is apparently 'not
firing' and he is behind schedule with the 2yos. He has been selective
about the ones he has run and they have done quite well with Radiohead
looking a strong contender for the National Stakes this week. He runs Hold
Your Colour on debut and that is a key point. Debut wins for the trainer
are rare and this not really the type of race, or time of year, to look
for one unless the stable issues have shifted his planning. So, a 'pleasing'
3rd-5th effort would be fine but hard to imagine him being superior enough
to beat a these first up. Some interest in seeing how Queens Hawk
develops from a midfield debut in the Bath race that Toga Tiger started
in. In general that race has produced more than the usual number of later
solid runs.
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In summary, Toga Tiger a perfectly reasonable favourite granted
a sound pace and less of a end-of-race-sprint set-up. But, value would
perhaps be 3/1 with some likely improvers against him and that seems unlikely.
Preference for Captain Cool to be readier for the day than Master Of Dance
and respect for Super Duplex on his debut form. But, perhaps the RP expert
will have the final say with some age related clairvoyance.
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