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Virtual Paddock = Goodwood (Rakaan,
State Fair & Trelawny Wells)
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VP = Lingfield (Astarta & Ragsta)
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VP = Others (Alrasm & Petrocelli
at Doncaster. Silver Symphony at Newbury).
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Before Monsieur Chevalier's win at Sandown on Thursday Richard Hannon junior
welcomed the fact that the 2yo season was starting to get going properly.
He welcomed the fact that more of the bigger stables were being represented
and the fact that the better 2yos were starting to race against each other.
Friday saw another good debut by the filly Rose Blossom for Richard Fahey
at Hamilton in a quick time, helped by the conditions. That was the sort
of complete 5f debut we have not seen much from the stable his year and
perhaps a reminder that, like any trainer, preparation will only get you
so far. The quality has to be there as well and perhaps some of the others
have lacked that. The trainer was reported to have said after the race
that if she had been beaten he would have retired because he was so certain
she was good. A surprise the Market support stopped at 2/1 given the limited
opposition she faced. Probably at the other end of the speed scale Mark
Johnston had a rare 6f debut winner with Shakespearean & perhaps he
is the Chesham hopeful.
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The Maidens today should improve the situation a good deal in regards of
the range of quality overall. On this day last year with the same mix of
races, with York as a new meeting, the races included :-
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The Coventry Stakes 5th winning at Doncaster from the Chesham Stakes
runner-up (the latter still a maiden & a reminder of what a poor race
the Chesham was last year).
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The later Group 3 7f winner Souters Sister was beaten into third at Newbury.
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The winner of the York fillies' race went on to win a 7f Listed even &
the runner-up won the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes over 6f.
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Today's editions lack obvious stars in the fillies' races but something
normally develops well from the lower profile ones in the field. The maidens
at Doncaster and Goodwood both look to have strong fields which
ought to produce horses which go on to compete well at higher levels. At
Doncaster the profile is headed by a couple of horses who ran well on debut
in maidens that their trainers often use to start high class 6-7f juveniles.
Alrasm was the first runner for Michael Jarvis in the important
mid-May 6f maiden at Newbury since 2006 when Chesham winner Champlain was
third before the Royal Ascot in. The Market before the Division he suggested
he was a better one but the paddock review was not fully positive. As a
type he has a lot going for him with above average size and build. He also
carried himself well to add to his overall balanced make up. On the down
side for the day he was less fit than many FTOs for his trainer and mentally
immature. He had a bit of the fizzy nervousness his trainers debut 2yos
often have (much different to the Hannon 'Happy Sheep' for example) but
that was not allied to laddo assertiveness as tends to be the case. He
seemed still mentally 'young' in attitude.
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Given that he ran really well to pull clear in wet conditions with a much
fitter & more knowing horse to whom he lost out to late on. The race
was run in a slower time than the first division but there had been rain
& other races between the two. The horses he pulled away from were
already proven limited (Lofthouse) & ran just 'alright' STO (Brisbane).
The well beaten 7th was beaten again yesterday at Goodwood. Assuming that
he has improved his fitness and grown up mentally he should set a very
strong standard here. He is not well drawn in 3 but the quality differential
often allows the best horses to get to the front anyway in these mixed
ability races. Last year the two good ones that pulled clear had come from
stalls 2 & 7. Looking at the draw most of the better newcomers at draw
wider as well along with a possible pacemakers like Another Grand,
Island Express & Camacho Flyer. Those lowest drawn look
a lesser group overall.
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Big Audio runs here rather than in the 6f maiden at Goodwood where
he made his debut 9 days ago. You might wonder why he is sent up here and
Hannon relies on the touted Fremont down south. Looking at the video
of his debut might give a clue as to why he has been sent the distance
up to this flat track. Drawn wide at Goodwood he lost ground at the start
and did not looking mentally sharp. When he got over the hill onto the
first downhill bit he did not handle it and lost ground. Add in a bit of
hampering as he was getting balanced again an he is well back in last.
Going back to the early Preview thoughts about 'Eyecatchers' & making
places he seemed to make a real effort in the second half of the
race. Switched out to mid-track he got from 12th to 4th in just over a
furlong before part stalling (having shown a better than average effort)
and jockey Hughes happy he had seen what he needed to and letting him roll
home. Lower level form than Alrasm has shown but not far behind on the
profile today and a big improvement expected. The Market should be interesting
because of which way he goes, below 9/2 a good sign you would think.
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So, two good prospects on STO and you hope at least one shows the ability
to make an Ascot trip worthwhile. With that pair in the race this is clearly
a tougher job for a newcomer than many maidens. There is a strong midfield
of debut runners and five appear to have the profiles to be solid maiden
winners (say OR75-85) but would need to be OR100+ or the top two to underperform
to win. John Gosden runs Key Breeze who missed a Haydock run because
of heavy ground last week. Remember that he rarely has debut winners this
early and he has not shown us a solid 2yo yet with four who have either
done badly on debut or not progressed STO, or both. He must have a good
one to show but a place here would be a very good result.
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Bryan Meehan had a debut winner for owner Jaber Abdullah earlier in the
week but that presumably counts as a special case. He runs Public Service
here who just comes out third on profile and should run well but an
unlikely winner. Tom Tate will get a surprise debut winner during the season
because he prepares his horses quite well for debut and, clever man, he
buys a lot of big ones. Three debuts this year have produced a 2nd and
two 4ths to confirm the overall view. He started a dual winner in that
race last year who was successful in a nursery off OR75. On profile The
Caped Crusader looks a bit better than that and should make the first
4-5 places and look promising.
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A couple of other interesting debuts a bit lower down with Branderburgo
a Marco Botti runner but by the sire High Chaparral who has not had a winner
below 7f yet. The trainer can still prepare debut wins although the only
one this year was punted on with a better type. Howard Johnson often starts
a better type for the Transcend Bloodstock company he has with Mr Wylie
at this time of year. In the past he appeared to have his 2yos strongly
prepared for debut and they did not progress. Either he has stepped back
a bit this year or has not shown us a really good one yet. Desert
Forest is by the underappreciated sire Desert Style out of a stout
dam and the overall profile says more of a development type.
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In summary, two very good 'STO Improver' profiles and the best result
would be the pair of them drawing clear together on the way to better races.
Preference just for Alrasm especially if the paddock confirms he has grown,
& tightened, up. A good midfield of 5 newcomers who have the profiles
to be average maiden winners or better. They would need to be really high
class to win.
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The 6f maiden at Goodwood looks as strong as the Doncaster one on
profile if not a little better in depth. The Virtual Paddock above shows
the three colts who have run previously and all are better than OR75 on
review. State Fair showed promise FTO over 5f at Newbury on softer
ground after getting loose at the start. Time has shown his later race
move was past limited horses but he finished unpressed. He is a tall horse
but not a typical sprinter shape & more narrow bodied. Just on that
you would say he was not a real 5f speed horse. His second run at Leicester
looked to prove that when he was outpaced on firmer going over 5f before
staying on to second late. We saw with Monsieur Chevalier on Thursday that
needing the full 5f to win well does not mean you need to step up to 6f.
But, State Fair was being outpaced by Bebenine not Star Rover & could
not get to the front at the finish. In his defence he was trying to close
on Tawaabb which is probably pretty difficult.
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So, he steps up to 6f here but on a faster track although with a mildly
uphill finish. A solid profile and he should run well. Jamie Spencer has
ridden him in both races but is aboard Rakaan for Meehan & the
'Authorised' owners. Which means either he thinks Rakaan is better or has
some other reason to keep in with the connections. He got a typical held-up-in-last
ride from Spencer FTO at Newbury in the other division of the race Alrasm
ran in. He plugged on to second late on behind an impressive winner without
having to show strong form. Solid promise without looking better class.
A neatly made, medium sized, one by Bahamian Bounty out of a moderate dam
he looks a bit light overall to be high class. Might well be opposable.
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Trelawny Wells is by new sire Pastoral Pursuits who was one of two
Group 1 winners for Bahamian Bounty out of the same dam. He has made a
solid start with his 2yos and this one would be at the high end of his
yearling sales prices. The picture shows a likeable type with some size.
Compact, deep bodied and a shorter, strong, neck. If he develops ok then
stick him in a nursery in later season off OR79 and he would look fine
and might well be able to do a little better. The picture also captures
a bit of just how flabby & mentally unfocussed he was. You need to
hang onto those excuses because he ran appallingly. If he were in a weak
Brighton maiden with his 'Duck Egg' and his form dreadful on paper he would
be worth backing on size grounds. In this tougher race you would expect
to see a much better run but a bit of a stretch to see him win it given
the 'tiers' of defence.
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Richard Hannon has shown us a couple of debut winners in the last week
at a time when we would expect to see the odd one with better types. Angel's
Pursuit's success at Newmarket last weekend was clearly the better end
although quite what the 2,000 guineas, trainer owned, Reach For The Sky,
was is a bit trickier. The 6f maidens at the course around this time of
season are a good place to look for another better debut. Big Audio was
probably supposed to be a good debut her recently but failed for the reasons
described above. Fremont is a full brother to Asset who was another
stable 'Better Debut' failure in his year when beaten FTO as supported
6/4f at Newmarket on May 21st. This one has been talked of positively by
the trainer and jockey Hughes rides it rather than Red Badge. This
is a tough race to win FTO but a strong performance typical.
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That would be a good field on it's own but you then can add in three other
possible strong debut types with Marine Spirit, Orpen Grey
& Extreme Warrior. The first is the initial 6f debut for Godolphin
after a couple of underdone kick-offs by OR75-85 5 types. In the last few
seasons the stable has varied it's approach with 2yos (you would think
they might have settled on something that 'worked' after so long...) and
early 6f debuts (before July) have been rare. For the most part they have
been similar quality to the two 5f types we have already seen. Debut wins
at any distance before July are rare now but look back to 2004 and they
had 7 in June alone to show how things have changed. FTO wins rarely
come from overpowering solid fields, as this is, when they are present.
Marine Spirit has a high class German pedigree and should make a solid
2yo but a win in this looks unlikely and another opposable one for the
stable.
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Tom Dascombe debuts have to be taken seriously overall because this year
the preparation has been allied to the horse ability to mean the good ones
can win ordinary maidens first go. Orpen Grey, by another underappreciated
sire in Orpen, has found himself in a tough maiden though and will need
to be higher class to win. A solid debut although a 4-6th placing a good
start in this group. Similar comments for David Lanigan's Extreme Warrior
who is an expensive son of new sire Dubawi out of a 6f 2yo winning mare
for an arab owner. The trainer has his newcomers mostly competent and can
place on that FTO. His first runner of the season plugged on into third
earlier in the week and you would expect this one to better quality.
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In summary, a strong looking maiden on profile which should produce
at least one horse of higher future significance along with maiden winners.
Rakaan does not fully convince and may not be value anyway. Probably one
to oppose and perhaps Jamie will help by giving up the rail to wrangle
him to the rear. Put Marine Spirit on the opposable list as well. Get the
paddock type to size up State Fair & Fremont against the opposition
to see if they are value for the day. More vague each-way possibles for
them to report on with Trelawny Wells & Orpen Grey & definitely
need to know how the first of those has developed.
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