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Virtual Paddock = Bath (Carries
Lass, Fly Silca Fly & Ishipink)
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A small field for the Bath fillies' maiden which is a Class 6 level
and limited to stallions whose progeny achieved less than the set level
for the Median (not the Mean) of their stock's sales prices. An attempt
to stop big stables farming maidens with royalty. Although a small field
it probably has as much depth as last year's which had twice the number
of runners. The winner was a Channon trained filly that ended the season
getting thumped in nurseries off OR80 7 her size always made OR80s seem
unlikely. The second was the best filly in the race and went clear into
the last furlong on debut and then folded late to allow the STO terrier
to get to her. The third managed to win a seller seventh go. Mostly wastelands
behind. The 15 who assembled in 2007 went on to amass just the one
later win. That was in a similar Yarmouth fillies' race that never produced
a winner at all. Good luck with the 'Eyecatching' there.
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After the downbeat intro things actually look a bit better here despite
just the 8 girls in attendance. Mick Channon runs two and both have run
respectably in low quality races like this and both appear to have a bit
of size if not masses of quality. Difficult to pick which is the better
in the stable's eyes and the Market may be a help there. Quite likely there
is little difference and this intermediate 5.7f trip ok for both of them.
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Fly Silca Fly ran in a conditions race FTO but that was sponsored
by her owner's Kingwood Stud operation so nothing much to be drawn from
that. That race was on soft and in general the form has not worked out
well on firmer going. The 2nd, 3rd & 6th have all been well beaten
since. In that context her second over 6f at Newcastle last week was a
good effort. On debut she had taken time to get going but the preliminaries
showed her to be mentally wound up and not that fit anyway. On the plus
side a medium size and athletic enough. At Newcastle she got outpaced as
the leader kicked after halfway and again needed a furlong to get going
but plugged on well enough through the final 1.5 furlongs. She got herself
well clear of the seller class filly Cassidy K and was beaten by a better
filly it seemed. The slight drop in trip does not seem a positive and she
is not going to deal with a filly with more basic speed but a solid plugger
for this type of race.
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Channon bred Flyinflyout and passed her onto the Racegoers' Club
partnership presumably thinking, perhaps knowing, he could win something
with her. A debut in a Goodwood maiden to give the owners a day out prior
to going 'Up North' to find something to win. That Goodwood maiden was
not strong but she was competent and attended the pacemaking until fading.
She lacks quality but is a solid size and probably has some scope to improve.
At Goodwood she finished just ahead of the much smaller Anjomarba who has
won a seller since. Putting her somewhere around OR73 as an estimate on
circumstantials seems ok. At Redcar last week she was held up in 10th through
halfway and stumbled just as the leading pair kicked after halfway. That
pair finished 1st & 2nd so making ground was not easy and she made
just an average job of it to get to 6th. A shorter distance here but on
stiffer track and probably better if she sits closer to the pace or even
makes it. A similar profile to Fly Silca Fly but appeared to achieve a
bit less STO.
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Who leads and what the pace is might depend on what Ishipink does
STO. Her trainer seems to prepare 2yos quite well for debut and they can
place with ability. But, he has not had a 2yo winner in the period 2002-8
and the five debuts that made the first 6 places have all failed to show
better form. As the picture shows she is a big enough girl and was much
larger than the other filly Ragsta who finished second in her debut race.
That one ran at Lingfield yesterday as favourite in a fillies' event and
anyone watching should have been muttering 'oh dear, she's not very
big is she...' as she trundled up the middle of the track off the 'Carpet'.
The smallish Hairspray won & looked bigger.
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Now, if Ishipink had run a vaguely competent debut and was trained by Hannon
then, with her size, she would be close to favourite here. But, that is
three 'Ifs' and she actually only owns a bit of size. FTO she tore off
into the lead to be a pointless 5 lengths clear early and still 3 lengths
up at halfway. Predictably she faded badly. Having not got home well over
5f she steps up to 5.7f and you would hope she gets held up. If she does
then she will probably hang around longer than the Market would suggest.
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Carries Lass ran just 5 days ago and was 66/1 despite being in excellent
condition. On firmer going she lost ground early on the downhill section
and trundled home after being 6 lengths back at halfway. She steps up in
trip but with no obvious reason to improve. Looking at her picture she
is an ok size although narrow bodied and leggy. Might be OR60s if the set-up
works efficiently. But, why would she be running again so soon? More likely
to be that she is flawed and either three quick runs to get a handicap
mark to see if she can compete in nurseries.
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By the standards of the race a solid enough set of runners with previous
ability to make things difficult for a newcomer. Richard Hannon rarely
gets debut winners except at certain periods of the year with his higher
class 2yos. He is exactly on schedule this year which means that Perle
D'Amour is going to have to be a better one to win this. A cheap purchase
out of a stout dam does not really read as that. One to pass over unless
the Market really strongly says she is 'Expected' which would mean 3/1
& under as an estimate. [The following - Link
- goes to the list of Hannon debuts this year up to Friday. The wins are
in Bold and his debuts yesterday produced one win with the useful Fremont
at Goodwood. What are the most likely reasons for the 16/1 debut win by
the cheap filly Reach For The Sky at 16/1? The other four, including Fremont,
have been by high class colts with Monsieur Chevalier already having emphasised
the quality of the normal Hannon debut winner.]
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Malcolm Saunders buys a few cheap fillies each year and the best of them
can develop with racing to win sprints. Avonvalley has been the example
of that this year but was not competitive in a lesser race on the course
on debut. Madam Isshe has a very good 2yo pedigree in theory with
her dam having produced a number of nippy 2yos. But, she will need the
debut run to develop from even if she has ability.
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Which means the best debut is likely to come from Secret Queen who
was supposed to start for the trainer at Newmarket two weeks ago but was
a non-runner. His debut runners there include a high percentage of the
better ones and this filly counts as a 'Special Case' to set against the
general rule that the trainer's debuts are normally uncompetitive. This
one is owned by Jaber Abdullah who seems to like strong debuts. He accounts
for a good percentage of the ones Mick Channon gets, for example, with
both of this year's FTO successes for that trainer owner breds for Mr Abdullah.
Earlier this week Meehan had a backed FTO winner for, you can guess, Jaber
Abdullah with the home bred Lady Of The Desert. So, Secret Queen is an
Abdullah home bred by his own sire Zafeen. She was supposed to start at
Newmarket where the trainer sends his zippier debuts often. Watch for support
you would think.
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Clive Cox had a poor 2008 when his string never seemed in full health.
Since the problem seems to have been solved he has had a really good start
to 2009. The two juveniles he has run have both been supported strongly
& gone off at 5/2 FTO. One ran poorly but has run 2nd places since
included just a week after debut so presumably he was supposed to do that
FTO. The other won at Goodwood two days ago. He is probably is going to
start out a few duff ones after the selective start and Nina Rose
reads as as minor sprint winner if she has ability. But, obviously a check
of the Market should be very useful in this instance.
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In summary, two solid Channon STOs who may not be pretty, nor that
fast, but progress from A to B in a predictable manner & probably present
a low OR70s barrier. Ishipink may be able to do that on size ground but
has nothing else to recommend her. A couple of newcomers who might reach
that level with Secret Queen the most interesting because a similar effort
to the one the connections Lady Of The Desert produced in the week would
be close to good enough to win. Check the Hannon & Cox horses in the
Market but they do not look the better types that would be needed for an
OR70 debut on profile.
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The following Virtual Paddocks show the runners for the two maidens at
Leicester on Tuesday 26th May.
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They are presented in finishing order so one might look through the pictures
to see if any bigger 'Powerballs' are hidden in the also rans, for example.
The results for each race are also linked to. The summary text at the bottom
of each result notes a few review points about the horses that those interested
might like to check out. The fillies were less 'Sharp' in the sense of
'Small' than expected with La Fortunata the smallest and a bit more size
elsewhere. [Hmm, imagine a 'Form Book' with VPs, Paddock Notes with 'Numbers'
& 'Race Shape' summaries and never a mention of 'Nice Types' &
horses "Not being knocked about..". Like the old "When did you stop beating
your horse?" accusational question.]
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