-
We are still in that time of the year when many stables are getting
going with their better sprint 2yos and we see a range of high class horses
start their careers. The need to get a pre-Ascot run into those thought
capable of competing there means this week is at the end of the possibilities
for that type of outing. The Royal meeting starts in 15 days time.
-
Now, Carlisle is not the first course you would look for to see
Ascot types & Group winners but the equivalent maiden has included
a subsequent Group or Graded winner in each of the last three years. Last
year South Central stormed up the hill eleven lengths clear on debut on
his way to winning the Norfolk Stakes at Ascot's premier meeting. We never
saw him again as he was sold to race in Hong Kong. In 2007 Philario was
one of those long priced debut winners for Karl Burke in June which he
has not shown us since. He won the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes and is still
competing at a high level this year. Not quite as obvious in 2007 when
Valbenny was anonymous down the field but developed to win twice here before
going onto a Grade 3 win when sold to race in the US. Any prospective international
stars in this year's field?
-
The answer would seem to rest with Howard Johnson who gave us South Central
last year. He runs the US bred Bow Beaver who was bought at the
early season breeze-ups for 35,000 guineas. He is by the Breeders' Cup
juvenile winner Vindication (who won over 6f as a minimum with his Grade
1 success at 8.5f) out of a stouter, unraced, dam. South Central had a
similar background having a US pedigree and then bought at a British breeze-up
sale for £60,000. This one cost more than South Central did when
acquired in the US as a yearling. Regression to the mean would suggest
that Bow Beaver is not as good as South Central but you would expect the
trainer to choose close to the best of what he has ready for the race.
-
He appears to be the only obvious opposition to Yeadon who made
a satisfactory debut over 6f at Ripon without recording a strong performance.
He raced in the smaller group on the far side which included the race winner
and sat third in that group at halfway. He raced freely for at least the
first two furlongs and more towards centre track with no cover. This appeared
to be enthusiasm and a willing attitude because he stuck at it to the line
although fading in the final furlong. Dropped back to 5f on a stiffer track
he looks a trier but not fully proven as a faster 5f type. The others in
the race look limited unless there is strong improvement to come from one
of Silver In The Sand or Stanley Bridge. The more likely
to improve would be the first of those although she did not see a fast
5f out properly on debut. She had to make her way over from a wider draw
to race 4 wide of the stands' rail and 4 of the first 6 home raced on the
rail or 1 lane wide of it. The trainer usually runs close to the best 2yo
he has as the earliest debut so she ought to run better here.
-
In summary, an interesting set-up in review terms with a likely
short priced favourite from a reliable trainer opposed by a strong looking
newcomer and, perhaps, a filly with more potential than the debut suggested.
Yeadon has some niggles over his free running and a stiffer 5f but, as
an enthusiast, should try hard to win. A good chance on profile he might
be just over-matched if Bow Beaver is ok.
-
===========================
-
If you had been at Leicester last year on a quiet Monday you would have
missed seeing South Central. But, in the equivalent maiden you would have
seen the Chesham Stakes victor (Free Agent) win FTO from another of those
underdone early season Gosden runners. That was a grey called Donativum
who could run in a straight line and rolled across the course. Once he
tightened up he ended up winning the Grade 1 juvenile race on Turf at the
Breeders' Cup. Back in Britain as a 3yo and running for Godolphin he was
beaten in a Listed race recently. Which definitely tells you something
about the quality needed to win Grade 1 turf races in the US (Group 3,
better Listed types from Europe can easily perform this 'Transformation')
and perhaps something about where the Godolphin training operation is at
the moment.
-
Difficult to say that this year's race has higher quality individuals in
it but it does have an intriguing shape. A couple of solid enough runners
with previous form taken on by 4-5 debut horses of varying potential and
stories. Warning Song looks a very solid STO runner and a real test
for any newcomer. Trainer Amanda Perrett typically chooses two competitive
2yos who normally fit in the OR75-85 range to run first each year (the
third to run will be a duff one). She looks for 'nice intros' so a place
FTO and some promise is what you would expect. This one made his debut
in what is normally a strong race at Salisbury and bolstered by better
Hannon & Channon representatives (oh, and often a good Portman one
as that trainer improves his record with 2yos). Again, this year's race
seemed mostly 'to the script'. The Hannon rep looked a bit lightweight
and the placed horses had both been running around loose before the start
but ok otherwise.
-
Warning Song was held up in 6th behind a strong pace and produced what
seemed a real effort to close on the leading three in the final furlong.
Not just trundling onto the back of faders but producing a real application
of excess power to shift himself forward relative to the others. The Channon
rep in the race has gone on to win a moderate event at Brighton but did
it comfortably by 15 lengths to enhance the view that Warning Song should
be a solid favourite here.
-
Jira ran in a slowly run race at Ascot and drifted in the Market
beforehand. She got outpaced as the race started and drifted back and not
showing any strong ability. That race has worked out in mixed fashion but
was certainly not a good performance level. As a general rule the trainer
only wins with his very best 2yos and they often show that ability on debut.
He seems to have a good group this year and has produced three debut winners.
Two of those have won STO at higher level to confirm the overall view.
Just a middling profile and in what might be a tough race.
-
The newcomers are a fascinating mix & you could produce a list of possible
strong debuts, in order, of Party Doctor, Go Blue Chip, Dragonessa
& Avongate as possibles to place & perhaps win if better
class. The Mark Johnston trained Capacity perhaps ought to be on
the list but, despite two debuts wins in weaker Northern maidens in recent
days, his FTO runners do not really convince as able to overpower solid
field. This one is well bred and out of a high class dam that Noseda got
to win by 9 lengths FTO but Johnston is not that trainer. More inclined
to have him on the Maktoum 'Surplus Stock' debut list unless the paddock
shows something different.
-
Richard Hannon won the race last year with one of those overprepared debuts
for The Queen. In 2007 he had the third in the same race for the same owner.
We have seen 3 debuts wins from the trainer in the last 10 days of the
type we should expect at this period with pre-Ascot kick-offs. Avongate
is an expensively retained son of Avonbridge bred by the owner of Averti
(Avonbridge's sire) and that line. The dam was a Group 3 winning sprinter
and has a mixed record at stud. A solid profile for a better one but a
place would be typical in this sort of field away from the major meetings
without pressure of royalty.
-
Tom Dascombe's 2yos managed 4 debut wins in the first 9 this season but
later races have shown that three of those were at least competitive in
Listed class. The fourth in Antonius Moris who runs in the Novice
race at Windsor on the day. The latest debuts have not been as strong and
probably a mix of lesser types & stronger races and perhaps failing
to handle the track & going for the odd better one. Party Doctor
has just an ok pedigree by the sire Dr Fong who sired last year's debut
winner. With the Market aware of him the SPs of his FTOs recently have
been poor value and an over-reaction to the early wins and the trainer's
reputation. Difficult to day in that context what 'Market Signal' would
be but less than 5/1 perhaps.
-
A quick mention for Dragonessa who missed her intended debut at
Newbury in mid-May. Here is the text written for that debut - "There
is a possible FTO lurker with the filly Dragonessa. She is the first runner
for Bryn Palling who was in the 2008 FTO P&L tracking for the long-shot
section. He lacked any quality last year with no 2yo winner but still managed
a debut 2nd with his second runner. When he does have quality he can get
them very fit and FTO wins possible on fitness and priming. This filly
is an owner bred for the Clee's who went to €360,000 to buy her dam
because she was a full sister to Titus Livius. Two years of struggling
to find a race she could win for Mr Palling before they gave up and sent
her to stud. They sent the dam to a good sire in Red Ransom so perhaps
the Clee's might start seeing some return for that enormous initial outlay."
-
Henry Candy breaks off from playing croquet now and again to train racehorses
and is very good at it. Over many years supporting his FTO horses would
bring a profit overall. In recent years that stopped as an illness problem
with the string meant he struggled for runners and winners. 2008 saw an
upturn and the better debut runs part returned. He had a FTO winner with
his second runner. What was galling was that his first runner of the year
was beaten at 14/1. That was Amour Propre who went on to win his next three
at 2yo and his first this year. The last two at Group level. If he had
run to even 85% of his full ability FTO he would have won at those longer
odds. Leave it, eh.
-
But, we should be taking Mr Candy's FTO runners seriously and Go Blue
Chip is his first 2yo runner of the season. Since Amour Propre cost
£1,500 and had a 'So What' pedigree it tends to be better to trust
the trainer to be running a competitive one this early regardless of pedigree.
The US sire does get early runners and the dam was a sprint winner so enough
speed for this. The profits following him came because the Market knew
little about his better ones so a double figure price does not mean a duff
one. This is a tough race but might well be each-way value.
-
In summary, another good maiden with a lot of future interest. Backing
Warning Song an entirely sensible approach if the price is right and he
should run well and be at his peak for this. If you prefer a more speculative
newcomer than you have plenty to choose from. Go Blue Chip & Dragonessa
more each-way prospects form trainers featured in last year's FTO P&L
Tracking who have shown profits in many years.
|