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A typically interesting field for the 6f maiden at Windsor
which has been won by some good horses in recent years and had some good
horses further back. Looking through the winners since 2002 the seven split
as three on debut and four on S-3TO. The winners with experience
have typically been high class horses for trainers who do not aim for strong
debuts. Richard Hannon has won it twice with Pinkerton (5TO, OR90+ juvenile)
and Assertive (3TO after being taking off his feet twice over 5f) who eventually
got his Group win as an older horse. John Gosden won it with Privy Seal
(STO) who then went to the Coventry Stakes on the back of a comfortable
success. The other winner with previous form was the filly Scarlet Runner
for John Dunlop. she went on to win at Group 3 level at 2yo & 3yo.
So the template says look first for a runner with strong form who
can win
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The three runners who won FTO were from trainers who do professional debuts
and get fairly regular wins of that type. In 2004 Rod Millman won with
Happy Event at 20/1 in the period when FTO wins were commonplace for the
stable. That horse was a sibling of three other debut winners for
the yard in case any other hint was needed. He beat a moderate field with
the previous form horses claiming level class. 2007-8 saw debut wins for
Michael Jarvis & Henry Candy with OR80ish types who were more ready,
due to the stable's more prepared debuts, than the similar types in opposition
(including for Hannon & Michael Bell).
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Which gives a reasonable starting point to assess this year's field. Are
the 'Form' horses any good? It not, then do we have good debut types from
a 'Professional on Debut' trainer? If the answer to both of those in 'No'
then you have an open race with a wider range of possible outcomes. A lesser
type with form might scuffle to a win beating horses they never will again,
for example.
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Nina Rose made a perfectly good debut at a low level at Bath and
was competent for the day. Helped by a slower early pace she led early
before allowing 3TO Flyinflyout to take over. She went with that filly
but got outpaced by her later although positive marks for attitude &
sticking at it. But, a smaller one and probably limited scope to develop
from that debut. On profile the sort that might get a win if allowed an
easy lead on the rail on firmer ground. But, the ground is likely to be
Good, at best, and the course is railed out by between 14 yards down to
7 yards. Add in the fact that she is drawn 4 & the run-the-rail option
is not open to her. Given the draw she is actually well placed if we assume
the field race off the rail & might even go far side if the ground
is softer than Good. But, not a profile B2yoR would generally support and
rather 'Leave it' if a suitable alternative is not available.
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Similar comments apply to Ba Jetstream who was soon dusted off in
a Novice race at the course when the pace increased. While he was beaten
by different horses he did not show anything to suggest he he is much over
OR70 if he is at all and recorded a low rating. He should be better here
but certainly not the 'Superior STO' type of the recent renewals. Tony
Culhane rides the stable newcomer The Human League but appears to
have an agreement to ride the Findlay horses so that is probably not just
an 'ability' choice, as such. Catherine Gannon would not figure up that
high in the stable jockey list either. Overall another profile to pass
one.
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Which brings us to the newcomers and, of course, the fascination and hope
of what might be lurking is a big part of the enjoyment of 2yo racing.
If you turn up to watch a 61-75 handicap at Southwell 'Hope' for Group
class horses is going to take a lifetime to provide but a handful. The
equivalent version of this race has probably produced more in the last
10 years. Go back twelve months - Picture
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& French Group 3 winner Soul City on his FTO for Hannon. The picture
showed him before he flip-flopped into his sweaty & taut mode while
showing off how endowed he was. He finished 4th with some 'Nina Rose' types
around him to make the point about the interplay between ability, readiness
& focus.
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When Hannon runs newcomers in the race they typically are one 'Good' one
(OR78+ & STO Peak win aim) and one lesser type (OR65-72) who will need
time to find something. He has not won this with a newcomer and you can
add a second by Baronovici in 2007 and two unplaced runs by the 'Lesser'
ones to Soul City's return in the last two seasons. Market respect for
anything Hannon runs at Windsor means that SP levels are very difficult
to read. 3TO winner Baronovici was obviously the 'Bigger' one but was 11/1
while the 'Lesser' one was Follow The Band who ended the season getting
beaten off OR62 (seller stuff) in a Nursery. That one was 6/1. Go Figure,
Frank.
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Which means that it is likely one of Dick Turpin & Bridge
Valley is an OR80ish one and the other is less than that to some degree.
Unless they are real high class they are unlikely to win a normally strong
edition of this event anyway. Hannon has shown us a number of strong 6f
debuts recently in the normal Newbury & Goodwood haunts with Canford
Cliffs, Fremont & Sabii Sands. One of those would win this but you
suspect this pair are not that grade. Jockey Hughes usually rides the better
one these days & is on Dick Turpin who is a cheapish son of new sire
Arakan who has not given us much so far. The dam can produce sprinters
but not of any strong quality & up to OR77 ish as older horses. Just
a so-so profile & put blinkers on to the Market because it can mislead
you. Real strong support might tell you it is an 'Aeroplane' but that would
need to get down to 3/ & under as they went down. 5/1 is about what
the Market will settle at whatever it is.
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Pat Dobbs is an interesting jockey. For the most part those riding do not
make a great impact on B2yoR & adequate anonymity is a good thing.
Spencer doing his MOAS bit is an obvious exception & occasionally others
show something a bit different. Years of watching Dobbs on Hannon second,
even third, string juveniles means he comes more to the fore. Seeing him,
reasonably regularly, get the longer priced one's home while Hughes was
doing his 'Trial Ride' routine gets you interested. When on the first string
or trusted with a good one in a high class race he usually gets the best
out of them. All done with no fuss or panic. Just quietly get them in the
right place, efficiently. Terrific.
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He is on Bridge Place for the owner breeder Deers whom he often
rides for. Which perhaps means he is not on the second string. This one
was retained relatively cheaply considering he is a brother to 2008 debut
winner Go Nani Go (for a Ready FTO' trainer). A niggle he might be ok and
a draw in 16 on the rail would be an extra niggle but for the going &
rail out items above. Overall, the need to be an aeroplane to win FTO rules
him out. Both Hannon ones obviously there to be assessed for what level
they might win at.
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Putting together a Shortlist of debut runners for trainers who get regular
FTO winners & places who might win a race with this type of set-up
would come out as Missionaire, Stay On Track & The
Human League. The first of those is a $320,000 yearling out of US sire
El Corredor who can get sprinters. An ordinary dam side for the money to
suggest a better physical type. The sire's two juvenile winners to date
in Britain have finished 1st & 2nd on their debuts in later season.
He is trained by William Knight who is in his fourth season with a licence.
A solid record overall to date and of the 11 winners he has had over the
seasons two have won FTO (50/1 & 16/1) & three others have made
the first 4 FTO at longer SPs. The places & wins have typically been
in the first batch on runners and this will be the third runner this year
after running a pair of fillies 10 days ago. The better of those
finished third at 33/1 to hint that the trend is real rather than just
an artefact of a small sample size. A strong profile in the context of
this race & top of the review list for the day.
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Ed Vaughan is another of those young trainers who learnt part of his trade
with Godolphin in the days when they did fizzy, fit & mentally taut
debuts. They often won FTO but did not develop much. Mr Vaughan is now
in his 6th season with his own licence and is another whose 2yos show a
lot of the ability they have on debut. Only ten individual 2yos winners
in the five seasons with as many as four winning FTO and none of them winning
again & very few subsequent runs from them. Sounds a bit Godolphinesque.
His four season winners last year all won or placed FTO.
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If Stay On Track is any good he ought to show a lot of that here with that
background. On pedigree he does not sound precocious enough for this early
run nor that well suited to 6f. By Refuse To Bend out of a Machiavellian
dam who is a full sister to Best Of The Bests. Owner bred by, presumably,
one of the Dubai associates he trains for. The sort of pedigree for an
Arab owner that has you wondering why this one is running now. He might
be here because he is good and you would perhaps think they might wait
if he was a small one. Given that he is likely to be fit FTO another interesting
one.
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Mick Channon does not get a lot of debut wins although places are common
enough. The three horses he has started in this race in the last three
years have all been unplaced & the better ones more 7f+ development
types. He runs two here with STO Ba Jetstream joined by newcomer The Human
League for Findlay & co. (having worked through famous footballers
& greyhounds for names we are now onto Harry's record collection it
seems). Now, Channon get debut winners at certain times of the season for
a small coterie of special 'mates' and himself. We have just come out of
the May period when he shows us some over-prepared better ones in many
years but nothing much to report in 2009. A couple of minor debut wins
by fillies for Jaber Abdullah, a big mate, but nothing in the 'Orizaba'
mould. Nothing of the 'Cerito' for Findlay either. Perhaps he did not have
the right horses this year.
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The Human League is an expensive son of Tobougg whom Channon trained and
was more precocious than his own pedigree suggested & assisted by the
Channon approach. The sire has not had a winner yet this season from a
few runners but we should expect them to start anytime. The dam of this
one was by a good sprint sire in Green Desert but a moderate runner. A
good physical specimen you would hope given the cost versus pedigree balance.
If he is a good one & ready the Market will obviously be aware so one
to check for strong vibes. If he is an ok one but perhaps better for 7f
STO then perhaps more the 7/1+ type. But still quite likely to make the
first 4 on this set-up.
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A strongish midfield of times that might make future winners in the field
and the race has a good record in that way. The last three years have produced
7-4-7 later winners & this bunch producing 7 during the season, on
profile, seems entirely plausible. Michael Bell's two recent runners in
the race have been 2nd (Spritza, limited STO filly of the Nina Rose type)
and 4th (Artsu, FTO in a race with a similar template to this one). Jessica
Hayllar is by the US sire Arch and you have to take his progeny seriously
as a general rule. He produces high strike rates and enough good quality
ones that win FTO. This filly is out of a moderate dam and just a middling
sales price. On profile a solid debut of the 4th to 6th type the trainer
does so well & peak STO.
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Of the others Astonishment looked a usable 2yo in review before
his intended debut at Leicester & a believable OR70+ type with racing.
Nut, Sylvester Kirk gets his rare debut winners with really high class
ones like Sri Diamond & Elhamri & he did not look that good. Meehan's
Fantastic Pick has just a moderate pedigree and a 5lb apprentice
on. Another to watch for ability rather than to expect a strong run today.
To make the point he has had two debut winners at Windsor in the last 8
years. One was the filly Buy The Sport who ended up winning Grade 1 races
on turf in the US and the other was dual Listed winner Sharp Nephew with
Dettori on.
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Also worth checking out Kyllusty Fancy before the race, not in the
Market because it will not tell you anything. The trainer does not get
many 2yos, nor winners, and the last success was back in 2006. But, when
he has a competitive one they make the first 4 on debut. This one's dam
was an example who finished 3rd at 20/1 for the same trainer before going
on win her next two races at Windsor including a fillies' conditions event.
This one might be ok and only the race or the paddock will tell you, not
the SP.
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In summary, the recent editions of the race have included some high
class horses who have won whether on debut or STO. When the higher class
horse has not been present an OR80s debut runner for a 'Competent &
fit enough FTO' trainer tends to succeed. The STO runners here do not appeal
as strong barriers to a better newcomer. Hannon has a very good Windsor
record but debut wins usually need a better type and his pair are not obviously
that. CHannon is similar and the Market & vibes should be informative
for The Human League. Most interest for the FTO win type at some value
with Missionaire & Stay On Track (if he is the bigger owner bred type).
A race to take seriously for future winners seems likely so studying the
result for 'Changeover Points' & 'Garbage Gaps' ought to be worthwhile.
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