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The fillies' maiden at Haydock looks an excellent race with
four good newcomers on profile taking on two STO fillies who ran with some
promise on debut. Jeanie Johnson ran in a 6f maiden at the course
on Heavy ground that produced a slow time and suspect form. Even given
the slow race she got outpaced before sticking on slowly to get back to
second late on. The third has improved to win on better going and the fourth
had no chance yesterday when dropped to 5f & given an attacking ride
from a wide draw at Chester. She might will improve for the better going
today but sets a low standard.
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Vanishing Grey looked the Meehan first string on debut with Spencer
riding but the Market said differently as she drifted to 16/1. Her trainer
won the race with a supported filly. In review she clearly was not mentally
ready for the day. A reasonable size although not that fit - Picture-
and a little narrow bodied & not that neatly put together. She was
given a Spencer hold up ride out the back early by design and then allowed
to make ground through the faders. Low level form but you would presume
she will be readier here and put more actively into the race. Just an average
profile and beatable by a better newcomer.
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The debut runners include four which might be 'better' so that Vanishing
Grey does not seem a good favourite profile if she gets to that position.
Marie De Medici is an expensive US purchase by Mark Johnston and
a sibling of Roman Republic who was highly touted on his debut for the
stable last year. He flunked the first test but won well STO & has
looked a progressive handicapper already this season. She is owned by Sheikh
Mohammed's son Hamdan for whom the trainer had his third debut winner since
May 29th yesterday with Marsh Warbler.
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That was the second debut win over 6f and the 11th for the stable so far.
The first 6 from early May included four that finished worse than 6th while
the last 5 have all made the first 4 including yesterday's win (at a short
SP in a small field). The SPs for the other 10 debuts at 6f have been in
the range 2/1 to 9/1 with most between 4/1 to 7/1. The other winner drifted
out to 7/1 and won after getting outpaced and dropping back to 9th af halfway
in typical Johnston 2yo 'flounder when initially put under pressure' mode.
A solid profile to place but difficult to know precisely how she will perform.
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Sand Vixen runs for Godolphin who have essentially had four uncompetitive
debuts with their 2yos so far. All have looked solid 2yo types but have
shown mental inexperience in their races and lost ground at the start as
well. The stable have changed from the thorough preparations they used
to apply to the early 2yos. When someone quotes the fact they have a 25%
Strike Rate with debut runners this year feel free to remind them the one
winner was adrift & clueless at halfway and won by trundling home late
after a lot of average to moderate fillies had blown themselves by over-racing.
Remember, that as a general rule opposing the early stable debuts is the
right call.
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This one is a breeze-up purchase so a lot of the early preparation was
done by another outfit. She is by new sire Dubawi and the 10th runner for
him. Looking at the previous nine you could form the view that they need
the debuts to develop from. 7 & of the 9 have been recorded as losing
ground at the start and not being mentally sharp in some way. A lot have
looked very heavy builds and not carried that bulk through the race fully
as if they need the race to tighten up. The one exception was the small
filly Pherousa who was second in a worthless Salisbury Auction race yesterday
in a slow time. Enough to let Sand Vixen be a pass in the profile.
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Readers will be ware that the 'waiting for Kevin Ryan to have a tuned debut
winner' project is not going well at present. But, as soon as you give
up on these sort of things one will appear and Reallymissgreeley
has a solid profile for the job. Probably retained at the breeze-ups for
a solid price and by the good US sire Mr. Greeley whose earliest debut
runners each year here usually include the better ones. Debut wins are
a bit light though for the sire although places common. This one has the
advantage of being owned by important connections for the stable and Neil
Callan is here which is always a good sign. Haydock is a good place to
look for a better debut with 5 FTO wins here in the last 5 years. Not a
profile to pass up on.
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John Fretwell has not had a 2yo winner yet from a few runners so far. Trainer
Ed McMahon has provided his beat debut and runner with Aalsmeer who was
backed and finished 3rd at this course. The trainer has had other placed
debuts and is up to his usual level of preparation now. Revoltinthedesert
(none of your Miracle Of Dubais stuff in that name) would be of some interest
in a weaker race FTO but this looks stronger. A cheaper purchase and the
trainer has suggested she is perhaps more a 7f+ development type. The Market
might be interesting if she got supported at short prices (say, below 9/2)
but nibbles at longer prices are more difficult tot read with Mr Fretwell
perhaps just having a bit on for 'luck'.
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In summary, a fascinating little race which might be quite useful
at the front and have some solid future significance. Vanishing Grey should
improve notably but not set a strong standard. The Johnston trained Marie
De Medici is probably a better one given the earlier start than her half
brother but a place would still be a good effort and the Market uninformative
unless she gets to 9/4 & under. Pass on the Godolphin filly and expect
to see a solid run but come up short. Most paddock interest in the Ryan
filly Reallymissgreeley.
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An entirely typical 6 runner field of which none have run. The trainers
to have had the winner since 2002 reads Mark Tompkins (rare FTO win with
high class Babodana), Mark Johnston (5/1), Howard Johnson in both 2004-5,
Mick Channon, Mark Johnston (9/1) & Richard Fahey. Which means we have
only one regular here with Johnston who has had a representative most years
in the smaller fields. The SPs of the two winners tell you the Market has
been no real help in spotting the winners. As ever, whether they win depends
how the race plays out and they show the typical stable debut 'waverings'.
The 5/1 winner was adrift and still 3rd one furlong out and only jockey
Dalgleish's persistence got her up late. Spencer would have given up before
halfway and Michael Hills would have finished 4th on her to make the point.
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Which means that Loveinsthesand, yet another Hamdan Bin Mohammed
owned, presents the usual difficulties. A solid 6f debut now the stable
is in better form but will need the race to be a bit soft or be a better
one that gets into stride well to win (9 debut winners at the course for
Johnston since 2002 at all distances from 46 tries).
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On profile you would not expect Irish Jugger, Ask Frank &
Ya Boy Sir to win although after Salisbury yesterday with 66/1 &
12/1 wins for newcomers from unusual sources you might wonder (there were
reasons for both those wins). Irish Jugger was declared for the Pontefract
conditions race in late May as the stable second string but a non-runner.
He is probably an average maiden winner at least but the stables debut
wins tend to come from better types. Markyg was third in the race last
year and Papillio second in a weak edition in 2007 for example. Ya Boy
Sir is a cheap one by a sire with a poor record with 2yos although the
trainer will have him ready to compete to a high level within what ability
he has.
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Ask Frank is the first runner for Alan Swinbank who has had a notable increase
in 2yos runners in the last three years. The high Strike Rates continued
in 2006-7 but a poorer return last year. The approach seems to have varied
a little with FTO wins normally rare but then 4 in 2007. Those debut wins
seemed to be accidents in weak race for the most part with the winners
not going on to higher level. In 2007 the first four to make their debut
were moderate & non-winners while last year he only had three individual
winners and they included two of the first three runners. Ask Frank looks
a bit light on pedigree and an unlikely winner and one to judge on the
day.
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The other two represent trainers who do get debut winners and have shown
solid debut wins already this season. Bryan Smart is behind schedule with
runners but has 2 FTO wins and a second from 6 goes and those three were
the only ones to start in single figures with the two winners supported.
Dahes is a middling price breeze-up purchase and just the second
run for new sire Azamour. He should be competent for the day and a solid
profile to win if there is not a better class one in the field.
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Tom Tate's Leviathan apparently lives up to his name (we have Midget
running in the Beverley claimer today as well) and he has said he is one
of the heaviest 2yos he has had. This links to the points above because
he is by Dubawi who seems to be getting that type. Lots of strength and
power but need to develop with racing perhaps. So, this is likely to be
a good one but a few niggles about how ready he will be FTO and how well
he will see the race out.
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In summary, Dahes is probably not the best horse in the race but
probably the most reliable to run competently. Leviathan should be above
average and competent but overall perhaps need the runs although the trainer
gets a profitable number of debut wins. The usual conundrum with the Johnston
debut and the Market does not know how it will go on the day.
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