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Fuller Previews in the next few days for the Royal Ascot races but the
Warwick
Fillies' Maiden today is an important race to at least cover today.
It brings together a number of important strands and may well prove to
be a stronger race than the first glance would suggest. The following paragraphs
highlight the main points.
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Aalsmeer was punted on debut and was expected to win. She did not
look that ready for the day and ran better than her light frame promised.
One of those lightly made ones with a bigger engine than you think. After
a break she ran in the Listed Marygate Stakes in mid-May and went close
to winning and was just held off by Misheer. Now, if you believe that Misheer
is a good prospect for the Queen Mary (as Kieran Fallon does) you would
want to see Aalsmeer winning this comfortably.
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The subsequent runs of the horses that finished behind Misheer at York
have made the Marygate look suspect as a worthwhile Listed race. That includes
the run of Little Scotland who was well beaten behind Dont Tell Mary, The
Hermitage & co. in the Hilary Needler. That matters because Little
Scotland drew clear with Misheer & Aalsmeer at York having been in
the last three together early on. Misheer is another who clearly has an
engine & extended effort above the promise of her frame but her York
win needs a boost & Aalsmeer has to win this? Doesn't she? The trainer
is in better form now & B2yoR is also interested in the filly he runs
as the second string here. Totally Invincible was a long price on
debut and in review clearly not fit, nor calm, enough to compete. She attended
the pace past halfway showing she had some natural pace but expired soon
after. One to track for development. Since she is here as a Support Act
another development run should be expected but another chance to track
her progress.
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To return to the main question - Aalsmeer has to win this doesn't she?
Well, let us say that she is an OR86 filly in reality and not with much
improvement. That seems fair and the owner has chosen to come here rather
than have a go in the Queen Mary. She has 3-4 lengths in hand of the other
fillies with form but not a huge difference and not as much as 'Placed
at Listed Level' will be talked up as by some pundits. Velvet Band
is a small and neat one who seems consistent but limited to lower OR70s.
She got taken off her feet last time by the bigger tearaway Lady Royal
Oak who is entered for the Queen Mary and the sort of newcomer Aalsmeer
would have to be worried about. But, Velvet Band has not got that pace
and scope and will not beat Aaslmeer for plain ability. You can add Deal
into the same grouping and she is probably less able than Velvet Band &
smaller if a little bulkier.
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The others with previous runs have not shown a lot & Monte Mayor
One probably has little scope to improve. A feature of the season so
far has been how lame the debuts by David Simcock's juveniles have been.
When he started the FTOs were hard fit, prancing, taut ones and those with
ability won FTO and did not progress. He has presumably stepped things
down over the last few years and this year the debuts have been green and
not fit. Exceed Power was typical when being unable to make use
of a good draw at Folkestone and getting unbalanced on the undulations.
On the positive side the STO runs to date have been improvements but when
from a low base like this still uncompetitive. Another to show up better
without thinking she will turn into a favourite beater.
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Val C ran in the Nottingham race which Velvet Band got taken apart
in (for four furlongs anyway). After a slow start, typical for a trainer
who underprepares the 2yos, she was 15 lengths back at halfway. She closed
up to the faders with the rest of the outpaced trundlers but not showing
anything different. On pedigree she would be of interest when going up
to 6f but the trainer has such a poor record with 2yos trying to follow
the improvement and predict where the performance level will go next is
tricky. Another on the 'Check' list.
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If that were the extent of the field then Aalsmeer would need to win well
to compliment the York form. But, two of the newcomers are possibles to
be higher class and could be troublesome for Aalsmeer is an OR85 filly
having a sleepy day. William Haggas does not run many 2yos before Royal
Ascot and when he does they are usually either try-outs to go to Ascot
or strongly competitive & precocious types. Excellent Thought
is clearly too late to be an Ascot try-out but her profile certainly says
she should be a good one. Last week the trainer ran his third 2yo of the
season and Nosedive was a well backed second favourite when winning FTO
at Sandown. Entered for the Norfolk Stakes he clearly was a late Ascot
effort given he missed a May race he was declared for.
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This filly is an expensive breeze-up purchase by good sire Exceed And Excel
who may well add to his Royal Ascot record this week after having a winner
& a second in his first year in 2008. The trainer started Jargelle
in this race last year and she finished third at 8/1 on her way to winning
the Supersprint and placing in the Molecomb Stakes. A lot in the profile
to suggest Excellent Show needs to be taken seriously for the longer term
and if she is a better one she might be troublesome here.
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The other interesting newcomer is Virginia Hall who is important
as Mark Prescott's first 2yo runner of the year. He has an individual style
with juveniles that is consistent and worth studying. His filly here intertwines
lots of 'they all end marrying each other strands'. When Jargelle was third
last year the winner was a filly on STO called Cecily. Virginia Hall is
Cecily's full sister. Their half-sisters include a filly called Resistance
Heroine who is the dam of Nosedive to tie them to Mr Haggas. That trainer
started out as a pupil Assistant with Prescott until he was chased out
by the 'Frying Pan' treatment. What a small world it is.
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Anyway, the first batch of 2yos the trainer runs will normally be competitive
2yos who will win at 2yo. Last year he ran an initial batch of 7 in 10
days and all were winners although only three placed FTO. In general debut
wins are rare except with high class horses. The Market knows which are
the good ones and debut wins are usually under 9/2 and can get punted very
low if they are good. Comic Strip got down to 11/4 for example - that's
Hong Kong star Viva Pataca as he now is. Yet another half-sister to Virginia
Hall is Violette won at 4/6f FTO on her way to becoming a Group winner.
Another sister won FTO for Mick Channon on her way to winning at Group
level. Which means that Virginia Hall is a 2yo winner at least at might
be some trouble today if she is useful. The Market will help with that.
Also important to get a handle on how forward the Prescott horses are given
that he recently closed his stable down for a short period.
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In summary, a race full of interest beyond who will win on the day.
Aalsmeer needs to improve the current view of the Marygate to help the
Misheer supporters with a comfortable. Some possible improvers in those
who have run before but from low bases and the fillies with placed runs
look less troublesome to the favourite. Excellent Thought might be a lot
more difficult to subdue and Virginia Hall will need to be Group class
to compete to win but an important indicator for the stable's prospects.
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