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Virtual Paddock = Coventry Stakes (Alrasm,
Canford Cliffs, Rakaan & Walkingonthemoon)
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VP = Windsor Castle (Azif, Desert
Auction, Di Stefano, Fratellino, Kirsty's Boy,
Little Perisher, Red Avalanche, Star Rover)
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A solid looking field for the Coventry Stakes with less of the obvious
'social runners' than usual and a smaller field because of that. The race
has a variable record and can range in the depth and quality on show. The
last three years provide a good sample. In 2006 (Result)
the well prepared, and most precocious, Helvellyn won from Hannon's Major
Cadeaux with Tariq getting through to third. Behind that you were into
the handicappers plus a few development types that managed juvenile Listed
wins aside from on major exception.. So, the older Group winners, i.e.
the Class of the race, managed to get to the front but were seen off by
a more precocious horse with less long-term prospects. Aiden O'Brien, to
a good approximation, runs one of two types in the race. The first are
the high class development types who will be competing at Group 1 level
as 3yos like Henrythenavigator. These can fail in the race and still turn
out to be high class and Holy Roman Emperor blew out in 2006 & such
as Rock Of Gibraltar have also got well beaten.
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In 2007 (Result)
the O'Brien long-term Group 1 type in Henrythenavigator won well from just
useful types who managed few later wins of any kind in the season. A field
packed with precocious ones behind the winner. Remember that the Coventry
run is part of the Stallion production mentality for Coolmore (the 'Boys'
as Aiden O'Brien always refers to them as). It is nice to have "Group winner
over 6f at 2yo, Group 1 8-10f at 3yo" on the blurb and if the odd one like
Holy Roman Emperor fails it is not a big deal because it was an add-on
to their main racing career anyway.
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Last year (Result)
was different again with 5 horses pulling clear with three of those later
winning at Group level with another development type who won at Group level
in behind. The winner was another precocious one in the Helvellyn mode
who pulled clear with a taking burst of speed from horses he could not
compete with 2 months later. The clutch of later Group winners was testament
to the fact that we had the top level of British 2yos well formed up by
mid season and nothing much came out later to better them. That left us
with the same bunch beating each other in various Group races and turning
the finish of the Dewhurst Stakes into a good facsimile of a tight-knit
sprint handicap. What that was telling us was that we did not have the
'Tall Poppies' who were better class but a lot of, similar quality, second
tier ones. The Irish horses looked better and the Classic results so far
in 2009 have tended to support that. Back in the field. The O'Brien runner
last year was the 'Listed Quality' one here to make up the number rather
than the 3yo Group winner variety.
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You could pull out a few pointers from the above :-
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First stop assess the O'Brien runner. Which type is it and how ready will
it be? The Market on the day will be useful.
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Since the Class horses get to the front which of this field have shown
something to make us think they are higher class? You would include in
the list of pointers an ability to show a sharp Change-of-Pace, long winning
distances in solid races and the ability to make an extended effort in
races. You would also add in a 'Real Thing' physical type if you have the
review information from a person willing to get beyond 'Nice Big Sort'.
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Is there a medium sized and very precocious one who might be troublesome
on the day to the longer terms ones as in 2006 & 2008? The answer this
year is quite possibly.
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After that you would add in thoughts about draw and Run Styles. Looking
at the draws (in the Results linked to above) it is difficult to get a
handle on where the best place to be is. Looking at the first six places
for the last 3 Coventry & Windsor Castle races you could certainly
suggest a 'middle' draw is best. Say in the 10-15 range although we have
a smaller field here. The issue is complicated by the fact that the fields
race on different strips and a few often stay close to the stands' rail.
getting into the centre or staying near the rail seems to work but getting
between those two areas is probably a bad move.
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Where they race will be in part governed by the horses that will force
the pace. The field has three natural pacemakers on the evidence we have
with No Hubris drawn in 2 and might steam down the rail side. Walkingonthemoon
is drawn 7 and Marsh Warbler (as a Johnston horse although Dettori
may try to hold him up) is out in 13. You would perhaps expect that No
Hubris & WOTM will form up to provide the lead on one side and whether
the rest drop in or spread wider depends on what Marsh Warbler does. Most
of the others in the field are natural Stalk & Pouncers who settle
reasonably well. The occasion and open spaces will turn some of them into
pacemakers but difficult to predict.
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The typical Coventry features a good pace which allows the relative abilities
of the horses to be spread out fully by OR number at the end of the race.
A really frantic pace will occasionally allow an OR80ish horse to get a
remote 3rd place as the second rank fall way & underperform. This does
not look likely to be a really strong pace. Winners coming from a long
way back are rare and a typical one would be travelling well within 1-3
lengths of the lead at halfway and best placed to pounce. Front running
rarely succeeds. Only Raines Cross & Rakaan seem candidates for being
held up to some degree and the rest are stalkers which should mean a close
packed fields lengthwise at halfway and hopefully not too 'wide' across
the course. If they form up on the stands' rail then a rail run is
often an advantage.
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So, what sort of O'Brien is Air Chief Marshal? He has had three
goes and won once although reportedly a little unlucky last time (B2yoR
would not pretend to be an authority on Irish juvenile racing, you need
I2yoR for that). On pedigree he might just be the 8f Group 1 type although
his siblings, including a full brother, have topped out as Listed quality.
Check on the day but the hype usually tells you what you need to know.
O'Brien already knows what he thinks this one is in the long-term.
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Ok, so has anything show us something 'Different' to make us think they
are better class? The obvious answer is Canford Cliffs who was very
impressive in an easy win FTO. He did not look wound up physically nor
mentally at Newbury on wet ground and not a paddock positive on that. As
a physical type he is not the most neatly put together but he is very strong
and deep bodied in front. The sprinter type shape that the trainer buys.
Given all that the performance seemed better. He lobbed along behind Barzan
who was setting a solid pace and was very ready for the day. He accelerated
to order and disappeared away from the others unpressed.
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The vibes from the stable had been that they knew he was the better one
and they run their Coventry horses in that maiden often. Major Cadeaux
was 2nd to Helvellyn (both ran down the stands' side together) in 2006
after a similarly taking win in the same race. The reports since have not
changed the view that they think he is very good. He is drawn 9 so interesting
to see what happens if the field collapses down ono the stands rail.
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Aside from that only one horses has shown something 'different' in Change-of-Pace
terms of which more in a moment. What you then have are good prospects
who have hinted at better and come from reliable trainers who often bring
worthwhile horses to the race. Top of those would be Red Jazz for
Barry Hills who won the York edition of the race in 2005 with Red Clubs
for the same owner. He made a taking, wide margin winning distance, win
FTO. The runner-up has run well twice since including a better class win
over 6f on the all-weather. B2yoR was a little disappointed with his STO
run over 5f at the course. Subsequent events have shown that taking a bit
of time to subdue Archers Road (off an an easy lead) while pulling away
from WOTM (Listed placed since & in this race), Little Perisher &
Fratellino (both in the Windsor Castle) was better than it looked at the
time. He proved he acted on the course and was pulling away from the others
at the end of 5f. A strong profile.
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When Paul Cole has a better one they often front-run on debut and win well
and are supported in the Market. A good example would be Luck Money who
won at Newmarket FTO and ran 3rd in this race to Henrythenavigator STO.
No Hubris has a similar profile and won well at York from Flying Statesman
who is in the field and Beethoven who was entered by O'Brien runs ACM instead.
A bigger type he should run well and assuming he runs prominently give
a good lead to Red Jazz.
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Michael Jarvis has not had a runner in the race since Sabbeeh failed as
favourite in 2002. His last runner in the Newbury maiden that Alrasm
made his debut in went on to win the Chesham Stakes at his meeting. As
with Mr Hannon the path to this meeting tells you how the trainer was thinking
about the horse from an early stage. Alrasm ran in the slower Division
than Canford Cliffs' but there had been rain in the intervening period.
He pulled well clear with the readier and fitter Meglio Ancora but from
moderate horses and not in the class that the Hannon horse ironed out.
But, he was not that fit nor mentally tuned so a good start. STO he won
comfortably at Doncaster without being pressed. A solid profile and if
he has developed well he might be better class but the Doncaster un did
not really say that. A good physical type with the size to grow though.
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With one exception the others in the field do not appeal to beat the best
of Canford Cliffs, Red Jazz, No Hubris & Alrasm. However, they look
a good god and other than Xtension none looked out of place on profile.
Fremont is the Hannon second string but made a high class debut
in a tough race and could well make the first six. Treadwell won
over 5f on debut despite a stouter pedigree and the trainer said he was
much better than horses he has had run well in the race. The likes of Cee
Bargara (6th in 2007 by blasting down the stands' rail), Mount Pleasure
(7th) & Blow It (10th) as the horses he is referring to and they wear
OR75-84 types overall. Treadwell looks a horse to take seriously although
this may be a bit tough for him now. Similar comments about Marsh Warbler
and the trainer tends to get more development types like Shaweel who was
7th last year but won at Group level later.
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The summary would be that Canford Cliffs seems something different and
this is his chance to show it. Red Jazz is a smaller type but will be well
tuned for the race by Mr Hills and a good opponent. The bigger pair of
No Hubris & Alrasm would make acceptable placers and check how well
they have developed because they have the frames to be develop more than
average. Going through profile and seeing Jamie Spencer on Rakaan
kept on bringing flashbacks to 2008 and Art Connoisseur winning by three
lengths. He was a smaller precocious one with a real Change-of-Pace which
suited the Spencer style when he got into a fast-run Coventry. The jockey
always looks at his most assured when able to hold a smooth traveller up
behind a lot of over-racing horses and deliver a late race snap. He can
look less than assured in almost any other circumstance at times.
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Rakaan made his debut in the same maiden as Canford Cliffs but was hauled
back into last by Spencer early on. After Canford Cliffs had shot clear
he made steady progress to get to second in the gap left. STO at Goodwood
on firmer going he showed something a little different. He made smooth
progress to the leaders to 2f out and then showed a short Change-of-Pace
that got him two lengths clear instantly. You wonder whether that took
the jockey by surprise because the horse started to tie up in the final
furlong and got caught by Fremont. Now, if this race has a fast pace and
Spencer holds Rakaan up at the back and uses that brief spurt in the last
furlong (if he can keep close enough without having the ability run-out-of-him)
then where might he get to? Perhaps he is the precocious one who might
be trouble on the day to the longer term prospects.
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In summary, Canford Cliffs much preferred with Red Jazz as a good
alternative. A solid field overall and any horses that manage to put some
distance into this group by the finish ought to have longer terms prospects.
Each-way value in Rakaan to get the sort race shape that will allow him
& his jockey to make a forward move late on.
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A typically large field for the Windsor Castle Stakes and often
a trickier race to get a grip on than the Coventry. The last three winners
have been at 20/1, 9/1 and 100/1 and the placed horses have included runners
at 66/1 and others at 16/1 & 12/1. The fact that it is a Listed race
and an 'out' for horses felt not up to competing for the win in the Norfolk
& Queen Mary Stakes means there is a pack of horses in the OR85-98
range. Given that the field gets spread over the track and the pace can
vary across the width along with any track bias means that oddities can
occur.
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The better horses can get nearer the front but there can be some variability
in the final result. Looking through the recent results is quite surprising.
Last year there were two Group/Grade 1 winners in the field with Bushranger
second and Donativum in 7th. In 2007 the Group 1 winner Kingsgate Native
was the 66/1 placer just in front of 7f Group winner Hatta Fort. Further
back in 10th was Group 1 winner Dark Angel. Just a single later Group winner
in 2006 with Conquest in second. More quality overall than the memory suggested
but none of the Group winners won this race.
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The same hints as with the Coventry in recent years that a draw around
9-15 is good and staying close to the stands' rail can allow later race
progress. Looking at the pace in the race there are three clusters. Most
interesting given the draws are Mister Manannan, Avonvalley,
Red Avalanche & Dancing Freddy in stalls 12 to 9. All
four of them have led or pressed in most of their races although Dancing
Freddy seemed to improve for being held up last time. The first of those
comes second on profile and was performing well when his trainer was well
behind with his 2yos. He looked to show something 'different' when skipping
clear in winning a 5f maiden at Pontefract. The trainer last won that maiden
in 2005 with Strike Up The Band who went on to finish second in this race
and the Norfolk Stakes in 3 days at York. This one is another smaller type
like SUTB (a horse that a 'size matters' reviewer has never fully understood)
and seemed to show that ones athletic & efficient motion at Pontefract.
The trainer is good at peaking horses for target like this and he present
a strong profile.
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Red Avalanche has looked a higher OR80s in his runs and might be better
than that given an easy lead on softer going. He seems unlikely to get
that here but should help to press the pace on here but perhaps come up
a bit short late on. Dancing Freddy looks short of the required standard
but Avonvalley has some each-way prospects given the good draw and being
in amongst some good pacemakers.
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Just above Mister Manannan on pure physical grounds in Angel's Pursuit
who is a much bigger and heavier model and there is the possibility he
will find this race too quick surrounded by a lot of nippy types. On debut
he took time to get himself organised to carry his weight and rolled around
but responded well late on. He is drawn in 8 so has a good chance to drop
in behind the 'Red Avalanche' group and gather himself for a later race
effort on the stands' side.
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Thos drawn low do not look a strong group and are probably relying on Fratellino
to carry them along which he will probably do. Running the rail might help
one of them run above their profile but not a group to support overall.
Which means that unless there is something drawn higher in the centre you
might well be happy to sift through that set drawn 8-12 for the value bet.
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As it happens there is a patch of pacemakers drawn high which should be
able to get involved. Star Rover seems very reliable and has led
in 5 of his 6 races to date. He is in stall 19 and should press the pace
on in the middle and has solid place prospects although there ought to
be one or two with more scope to develop. Either side of him he has the
a much larger filly in The Hermitage & Hearts Of Fire.
The former has look a strong pace presser on all her outings and it will
be interesting to see whether she can settle and take the lead from Star
Rover. She has more to show than her last run suggested when she had to
use a lot of energy early to get across from a low draw in the Hilary Needler.
Another each-way possible. Hearts Of Fire returned from a break to run
well at Beverley but that form looks short of what is required here and
he has not shown the same zip as he did FTO in two later runs. On physical
scope grounds you would like to see him demonstrate that ability again.
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In summary, a tricky race given the large field and the mix of physical
types and precociousness. Mister Manannan presents a strong profile of
draw, Run Style and ability and respect for the way the trainer brings
his sprinter to a peak effort for these races. Angel's Pursuit has more
scope to develop and interesting to see whether he can make the ground
back later in the race. A strong pace duel would perhaps help him by softening
up the leaders. Plenty of each-way prospects with Star Rover & The
Hermitage two solid types and Avonvalley a possible from the longer SPs.
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