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What did we learn from the first day's racing at Ascot that might
help with analysing the Queen Mary Stakes? Regular readers of these
Previews will no doubt be able to spot when a summary is based on little
extra insight and just 'picking between three' similar profiles without
any real angle. As a punter you should be able to recognise when you are
really on to something and when you no strong 'feel' for race. The Queen
Mary field is a tricky choice between a set of three Northern trained fillies
who have looked useful without showing anything strongly different at first
pass. Rose Blossom supporters will be jumping up and down about
'All aged track records' at that point, no doubt. But, you could turn that
around and ask when did beating Dazeen by between 4-5 lengths make you
Group class? Whatever time you did it in.
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Given the niggles about draw and track bias it would have been nice if
the first day at Ascot had been more helpful in nailing down what was going
on. The races on the straight course seemed inconclusive but we did learn
a few things. The one horse to win in centre track was Australian sprinter
Scenic Blast who just looked different class to the British representatives.
Held up early he floated past them and comfortably held Fleeting Spirit
who appeared the rally just off the stands' rail. That rally probably hinted
at a 'live' strip near the stands'. In the straight mile race the whole
field worked across to the stands' rail side so nothing much showed up.
The sprint race also reminded us that both America & Australia have
much bigger breeding industries than Britain & Ireland combined and,
on the evidence, a better pool of sprint genes. We should remember that
the American thoroughbred producing figures dwarf ours and the only country
to get anywhere near them in numbers is Australia (several times the size
of the combined 'Home' breeding population). We should not be surprised
they have a wider pool of better horses given that breeding owes a lot
to being a 'Numbers Game'.
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The Coventry Stakes did not tell us much about the draw & track because
of the way it was run. Canford Cliffs broke well and got the jump on Richard
Hughes and led early. The other better fancied horses joined him and the
field got taken along at too strong a pace. The speed broke the field up
and allowed the placed horses to come from well back having been unable
to travel with the pace the leading pack set. Thankfully, Canford Cliffs
is exceptional or we should be looking at a Coventry result with Xtension
beating Rakaan.
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To the list of things that should alert us to better class horses started
yesterday we should add being able to survive a pace war and then being
able to kick off the front of it as the other, good horses, fade away having
been broken by it. Richard Hughes said after the race that it was the first
time he has been "run away with..." by a horse but still finished
a race off strongly. He followed that up by suggesting that Canford Cliffs
was the best horse he had ever ridden and had done something on the day
he had not experienced before.
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It was that strong pace between a close up pack of horses that allowed
Xtension & Rakaan to place. They were making ground late on past dead
horses. Rakaan did it more quickly coming from behind Xtension and wider
on the track to get to second before fading late on as he had at Goodwood.
He has real turn of foot which will look devastating at Conditions &
perhaps Listed level in the right spot. Xtension did not show that and
trundled on late along the better strip just off the stands' rail. You
would not think at this point that he is the second best horse in
the field. Perhaps not even in the top 5. We shall see how that works out.
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So, the Coventry provided few draw clues because of the shape of the pace
in the race. Then along comes the Windsor Castle to deliver, entirely typically,
a result which has you thinking "What was going on there?". If you ran
the same race tomorrow with, for argument's sake, the horses in exactly
the same physical state as today and turned the draw around how
much would you want to bet the first four would read the same? If they
were the four best horses and the draw did not matter they would be the
same. B2yoR would not be prepared to let a fiver see the light of day to
bet on that outcome.
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The first thing we learnt is that the US sprinters, 2yos included, need
to be taken seriously with Strike The Tiger looking like the best horse.
He might well win whatever the draw. The second thing is that was more
evidence that there is a strip on the stands' side that was an advantage
to run along. The three British trained horses in 2nd to 4th were drawn
2-4-5 with the strongest finish from Di Stefano along that preferred stands'
side strip in the last 2 furlongs. The strongest finish from well back
was by Desert Auction, outpaced early over 5f as usual, who was drawn 3
and ran down the same furrow as Di Stefano. Fratellino pinged the start
and was a length clear immediately and ran down that stands' side strip.
With nothing else getting established as a pace leader in the centre both
Strike The Tiger & Mister Mannannan cut over to join Fratellino and
run down the same strip.
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Yesterday's preview noted that a number of Group winners have been beaten
in the race and surprise results not really surprising. The bulk of this
field fit into a narrow OR85-94 ratings band and the few lengths difference
that any track bias implements can be decisive. In this race, with the
exception of Hearts Of Fire, the pace makers who survived best ran up the
same strip and the outpaced closers trundled up the same strip later. Angel's
Pursuit migth still be the best development horse in the race but found
this too 'quick' both physically & mentally. When the, say, Mill Reef
Stakes is in view in August who is more likely to be in the reckoning between
Fratellino & Angel's Pursuit.
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To summarise that was here are a few points we might have learnt to feed
into the Queen Mary thinking :-
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The American horses need to be taken seriously if they are the right physical
types because the preparation appears to have been good. The same trainer
has Jealous Again in the race and she appears to have a good draw
in stall 1. She made the pace the last time she race so has some chance
of getting involved and staying there.
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The Windsor Castle saw The Hermitage fade tamely in centre track. Since
she is presuambly the trainer's second string to Capercailie that
is not a positive. Little Scotland had finished behind The Hermitage at
Beverley after her later race trundle on was interrupted. Here she was
trundling down the right strip and go past her. That might be read as a
compliment to Misheer although Dont Tell Mary beat both The Hermitage &
Little Scotland much more comfortably.
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A working theory that a low draw is better unless you have a fast horse
that can get across towards the stands side. Three of the better fancied
horses are drawn high (Dont Tell Mary, Capercailie & Rose Blossom)
along with Lady Royal Oak who looked fast but uncontrollable when frontrunning
FTO. Most of the field have raced prominently in previous races, with the
exception of Lady Of The Desert, although none seem fully confirmed frontrunners.
You would expect Crown to be held up to finish the race off and Ceedwell
unlikely to be nippy enough to get involved early.
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Not that helpful because it adds to the possible trouble makers from lower
down the profile ratings and puts a question mark against the better ones
on draw grounds. On the 'something different' basis Rose Blossom
did show an ability to jump from a strong pace that broke the other pacemakers
to win comfortably first time out. The course record owing more to the
ground & environemntal conditions. But, she did it unpressed and here
trainer has called her a 'Freak' which is the same word Hughes used about
Canford Cliffs yesterday. After her debut win he reported he had worked
her with older male sprinters and she had beaten them comfortably in a
manner he had never seen any 2yo do. A strong profile and she seems able
to take a lead but a niggle over the draw.
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Capercailie has not shown that bit of extra sparkle in her wins
but completed a second victory well last time. She was going away at the
end from Reignier having idled a little. Her form was not franked by Dancing
Freddy's effort in the Windsor Castle although Reignier has been declared
for the Norfolk Stakes. Also drawn in the centre and perhaps Dettori will
try to work over to the stands' side. Dont Tell Mary finished strongly
in the Hilary Needler on a stiff track and looked more of 'staying' 5f
than a straight speedball. Granted a fast paced race that sort of profile
would see her closing up late on well.
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Misheer is a smaller physical type but has shown something a bit
different with a wide margin win FTO and an extended effort to win the
Marygate. But that form looks limited despite the, apparently, good effort
of Little Scotland and the other placed horse from York - Aalsmeer - was
beaten again on Monday at Warwick. Kieren Fallon put her up as a good prospect
when asked over the weekend and you have to respect that but a smaller
physical type and vulnerable to some of the more substantial ones.
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As with the Coventry Stakes there are not a lot of 'Socials' cluttering
the race up and the rest all look solid fillies worth a run in the race.
High
Spice is better than her unfortunate run at Sandown last time made
her look and looks a reliable type. Her debut form is good and she has
a reasonable profile without anything outstanding. Similar comments for
Crown whose first two runs made her look average, at best. Since
being held up in slower races she has been able to gain wins over useful
colts who were probably below their best. She is not going to get that
shape here although a hold up ride to pick up late in the race may work
reasonably well.
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As regular readers will know B2yoR has a soft spot for bigger & fast,
but flawed, fillies like Lady Royal Oak. On debut she just looked
different class to little ones like Velvet Band & White Daffodil in
review and very ready for the day. But, unlike most of this field, she
could not put a competent race together and tore off in front. The other
fillies with form managed to keep with 5-10 lengths of her at halfway with
the greenery stretched out over 20 lengths. As Richard Hughes would point
out, horses that run away with you never finish races off (except
Canford Cliffs) and LRO predictably folded although lasting longer than
you would expect. Interesting to see whether she can settle here.
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Which leaves a difficult summing up. Leaving out the draw and Jealous
Again you have a tight choice between Dont Tell Mary, Rose Blossom &
Capercailie at the top of the profile. All seem tractable and capable of
finishing the race off well. Misheer comes up short against those three
& as much interest in High Spice. Dont Tell Mary the better stayer
although Rose Blossom probably has more tactical speed and gear change.
Given a stiff pace a small preference for Dont Tell Mary. Oh, and a personal
bit each-way on Lady Royal Oak just in case.
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Put the draw back in and things get much more difficult and Fratellino
showed yesterday just how hard a little one loose on the stands' side strip
can be to get back. But, Strike The Tiger also showed how a better, and
bigger one, who goes across to join them can still win. Not obvious that
any of the high drawn runners are well placed to do that and very hard
to predict whether one will cut across. As ever, if you have the chance,
worth checking how the earlier races go.
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