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Virtual Paddock = Ascot (Monsieur Chevalier,
Radiohead
& Star Rover)
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The Norfolk Stakes field looks a good one in quality terms
with a range of horses with the potential to be competitive in better races
later in the season. In the last three years the race has produced Dutch
Art, Winker Watson & Hoh Mike along with a couple of Richmond Stakes
winners over 6f at Glorious Goodwood who were not that good. Outside of
that group you are quickly into just useful horses who were handicappers.
Last year's race just produced a Richmond Stakes winner in a thin version
of that event and not much else in a bunch finish. You could look at 3-4
of the British horses in this field and feel they are better than the general
standard last year.
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However, before getting to that the races on the straight course yesterday
made analysing this race pointless without putting it into context. The
first main thing we learned was a positive one. The US trained filly Jealous
Again put up a striking performance to burst clear of the field early,
put them under pace pressure that none of the others could handle, and
then have the preparation and fitness to last home. Looking at the way
the British fillies like Lady Of The Desert & Ceedwell, who ran on
the same strip, were left behind was very informative, perhaps a little
embarrassing. But, we learnt that the US has better sprinters than we have,
with more pace over a short distance. The way that stock are trained and
prepared early in their juvenile seasons is different to what we do over
here. Jealous Again was just too good for the opposition and better prepared
for the day. It is good thing to have people come over and remind us that
there are other ways of doing things.
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That was the good side of the day with the International opposition asking
us questions about whether we are happy with the way we prepare horses.
The answer might be 'Yes' because the US way risks more early burnouts
and Jealous Again might be over-the-top by August. But, the question and
issues, including breeding aims, are worth facing. The bad side of the
day was the horrible stands' side bias which showed up in all of the races.
If you were drawn in the middle, and on the far side in the big field handicap,
you has no chance. There is no other way of putting it than the bias ruins
the racing and makes the Meeting a farce. More than 50% of the runners
on the day had as much chance of winning if they had not bothered making
the declaration. The amount of time and effort that has been put in by
hundreds of people to get runners to the meeting is huge. All pointless
in the majority of cases.
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For those trying to analyse races afterwards it is difficult because you
have to spend a lot of time looking where horses actually ran. The draw
will tell some of the story but not all. If you are trying to write a sensible
Preview of the Norfolk Stakes you are wasting your time if it does not
make the draw the main point to cover. The Queen Mary had many of the better
British prospects drawn in the centre track and apart from Capercailie
in later race none of them ever got anywhere near the Magic Carpet on the
stands' side (a wide strip off the rail). With the US filly Jealous again
breaking well and setting a strong pace on the best strip the race just
got broken up. The fillies that placed ran on the same strip, from low
draws, with Ceedwell getting the same sort of late race trundle into a
place. The race told us nothing that useful about How Dont Tell Mary, Capercailie
& Rose Blossom relate to the lower drawn fillies in quality terms.
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A couple of things we did learn was that non speed 5f types like Dont Tell
Mary will not win on this track unless they are drawn low and get fading
horses to close onto via the Magic Carpet. Put them out on the slower centre
strip and things get ugly. We also learnt that Lady Royal Oak is still
fast since she kept up with Jealous Again, for a while, despite being in
the middle but is still difficult to control.
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Which means a brief summary of the Norfolk Stakes could go along the lines
of the winner will be low drawn and probably the best pace horse there
given the way Strike The Tiger, Fratellino & Jealous Again have managed
to keep rolling. Canford Cliffs was over on that strip as well in later
race. Since Yogaroo is drawn 3 and is supposed to be quicker than
Strike The Tiger (who did a slower time than the filly) then he looks the
winner. We can assume that his ability to make a fast break and get up
to speed quickly will be the same as the other two US winners because that
is how he has been prepared. If you watch a lot of videos of juvenile races
like B2yoR does then the 'Keystone Kops' nature of many race starts seems
normal. Another reason why having some foreign opposition is a good thing.
It tells you that the ragged nature of the starts is because of lack of
preparation and not because horses are too stupid to do it properly.
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But, the price has gone on Yogaroo & worth thinking through the others.
Monsieur Chevalier is drawn 2 so is in the right place but has he
got the right Run Style? One pundit before the meeting started said that
he was "the fastest 2yo we have seen this season.." which was baloney
before the US juveniles turned up here. If we take 'fastest' to mean the
top MPH a horse can achieve, over whatever short stretch, then there are
oodles of horses faster than Monsieur Chevalier. After he won the National
Stakes the jockey said he had been 'flat out' most of the way and he went
through halfway in 5th so there were four that were faster over 2.5 furlongs
in that race alone. He has run every one of his four wins in the same manner.
Gone through halfway off the pace & perhaps niggled along at times.
As the speedier horses start to fold he makes progress towards the final
furlong marker and then pulls clear late on in the slowest furlong of the
race.
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Which means that if Yogaroo is 'as advertised' we should have a fascinating
race, Hare & Tortoise. Can Monsieur Chevalier keep close enough to
be able to use his later race staying ability to close up? If he were drawn
in the middle the answer would be an unhesitating 'No'. Since he will be
finishing up the stands' side strip that has enabled lesser horses like
Di Stefano & Ceedwell to finish strongly you would not be so sure.
Looking through the horses he has beaten they are not the best we have
seen and those who have already run at this meeting have not really advanced
his profile. Preference for Yogaroo if he is an ok specimen.
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Kingdom Of Light is drawn 1 and his trainer has an excellent Norfolk
Stakes record. He won it with Masta Plasta in 2005 & South Central
last year. In 2007 Art Advisor was best-of-the-rest as the precocious Winker
Watson became the only horse to make the first two in the last three running
from higher than draw 5. All three of those horse front-ran in their
Norfolks. Kingdom Of Light did not look tuned up on debut and ran too freely
early on over 5f and forced to the rail and the lead. Mister Mannannan,
on STO, then did the same to head him and left him behind with an effort
to the straight. He stepped up to 6f next time and was allowed an easy
lead by OR70s horses and gradually wound the pace up from halfway to win
unpressed.
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Which means he has positives in his profile and should be much fitter here
but you wonder why the stable's Bow Beaver is not here instead having won
the 'South Central' maiden at Carlisle and being the obvious 5f prospect.
Will Kingdom Of Light be fast enough to use his draw here? On what he has
shown then the answer is know. On the way the trainer has tuned up his
previous Norfolk runners than a possibility.
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Diamond Johnny G started over 6f and got outpaced and was a non-runner
over 6f last week. His trainer has sprung some surprises at the meeting
in recent years but this one does not really have the profile that says
a drop back to 5f is what is needed. Drawn well in 4 but has not shown
enough. Reignier gave Capercailie a brief fight last time and that
filly hinted at being better than the draw allowed her to show yesterday.
But he could not beat here and that put him well behind Yogaroo anyway.
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You are then out to draw 6+ and into a difficult area of knowing whether
a horse has enough pace to get across to the preferred strip to compete.
Which is a shame for the race because in Tawaabb, Radiohead
& Nosedive you have three interesting horses who have more to
show. Star Rover is drawn widest and we know what he can do and
that has already come up well short against Monsieur Chevalier. He did
not run that well from a bad draw in the Windsor Castle and no reason to
expect him to do better here. Here Now And Why has good early season
form and the only 2yo winner his stable had when they were making a slow
start. His two wins were comfortable but from lesser opposition including
an underdone Mister Mannannan on that one's debut. We do not know how good
he is but he is a fast starter so has a chance of getting over. He comes
up short in quality terms though.
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If we could ignore the draw and Run Style dimensions B2yoR would be very
interested in taking Monsieur Chevalier on with Tawaabb. The Hannon horse
sits off the pace and has to be niggled and runs on strongly. On the limited
evidence we have Tawaabb could track a pace a little more comfortably than
that and, on the way he strode home at Leicester, has a strong finish as
well. On his win he impressed with how much he had grown up and how professional
he was. A horse with good development potential and up to taking on what
seemed the likely favourite before the meeting. Monsieur Chevalier has
not shown us the 'something different' that Canford Cliffs had and a respectable
case could be made he has been beating up on horses that had run themselves
out. Tawaabb seems a different proposition and a much more weighty horse
than the likes of Star Rover.
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Radiohead is another positive in paddock terms. Big enough and athletic
with it. The most striking thing about him at Bath was his attitude. He
knew he was 'The Boss' and the other horses needed to know it. Since he
was in a field with two fillies and the nutcase Trelawny Wells that did
not really test him. Tawaabb & Monsieur Chevalier will take a bit more
to dominate them. In ability terms he showed a good deal to recover from
a Spencer induced slow start to get back to High Spice. Her two later poor
runs are typical of the way the trainer's debut winners seem to go, unfortunately.
We learnt little at Bath because of the poor quality opposition. But, a
horse to take seriously at Listed level, at least, and interesting to see
how he goes here. Would would be interesting would be to see Spencer perhaps
drop him across to the stands' strip in midfield and see whether he can
produce that effort he showed at Newmarket.
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Nosedive does not have a 5f pedigree but his trainer has worked
hard to get him ready and to this meeting. At Sandown he got outpaced briefly
as the later race efforts went and finished strongly once he got himself
organised. But, that was low level form and he is going to find this much
tougher. If his trainer has him here he will probably be competitive in
Group races down the line but should find this a bit too tough.
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Running Mate is interesting because does Princess Haya really need
a 'Social Runner'? Gosden's overall record says he normally runs better
types at the meeting but he has run Seaway & Bastakiya for this owner
in recent years as well as Donativum. The last of those ran in the Windsor
Castle before flowering in later season over further. When the trainer
thinks he has 'seen something' in a horse in early season it can take him
time to get him to display it. Oasis Dream would be another example who
was always supposed to be an 'aeroplane' but ran two ordinary ones before
winning 3TO. Running Mate ran just ok over 6f FTO in a strong pace race.
STO in a 6f race that turned into a late race he hung in later race in
a manner which looked suspiciously like packing it in. He is dropped to
5f here so perhaps Johnny G. is trying to find the key to a horse he believes
has better ability. But, not one for today overall and more an assessment
exercise.
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In summary, for crying out loud Ascot, stick a rail 20 yards out
from the stands' side, or something, to try to even the bias up. This is
making the racing look daft. Looking to oppose Monsieur Chevalier with
'something' before the meeting started on his Run Style and beaten horses
grounds anyway. That horse seems to have become obvious with Yogaroo but
the value has probably gone there. Keen on Tawaabb but recommending betting
on a horse drawn where he is makes no realistic sense on the evidence of
the first two days. Other horses to be positive about for the future with
Radiohead & Nosedive but the same draw issues linger. If the whole
field goes onto the stands' rail then the thinking has to restart. Overall,
a bit each-way on Kingdom Of Light at the right price to make use of his
draw positive if HoJo has put a bit of his usual 'Norfolk Pep' into him.
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