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No 2yo race today so time for a brief look
back at the Brocklesby result and try to fit it to the earlier discussion
on 'Race Result Shapes'. The following - Link
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goes to the result for the Race. Remember that the working hypothesis is
that a race with a solid pace, on a straight course, will spread the horses
out in a good approximation to their absolute ability at the finish.
In that situation horses can underperform for some reason and finish further
back that they ought to but we should be able to make an educated guess
about which they are. Given a solid pace the reverse should not happen
with poorer athletes finishing further forward that they ought to. It can
occasionally happen but is usually a clue that an external factor has affected
the result. For example, the huge stands' rail bias on the turf course
at Lingfield.
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Now, the Brocklesby saw four horses making
forward moves from two furlongs and pulling clear of the others. Aside
from them there was none of the notable finishers further back that can
often catch the (unwary) eye. The race was run in a slow time on some of
the softest going the revamped Doncaster course has provided. A half headwind
added to the taxing nature but overall these sort of tests still reduce
to showing you which horses have the largest power reserves to use. One
caveat being that some horses may not have acted on the softer going and
might show up as much more efficient movers (users of their available)
power on firmer ground. The pace seemed solid and the pressers on the stands'
side faded by inside the final furlong but without collapsing entirely.
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Looking at the result remember we are looking
where to stick the winner of the 0-140 Official Rating Scale then seeing
how the gaps back to the others indicate their probably ability level.
The next step being to see if we can place the 'Changeover Point' (CP)
and the 'Garbage Gap' (GG). The winner seems a certain OR85+ rater and
the three who followed him a highly believeable group to make up the OR75+
Open Maiden winners. The race shape then presents us with a gap back to
a pretty small filly who was 66/1 and looked her stable's second string.
The starting point is that for this race the CP & the GG are at the
same place between 4th & 5th & the set of OR64-74 usable types
either were not present or did not make themselves apparent.
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With that background let us canter through
the Pictures of the 2yos and see what we can say about future prospects.
We shall stick real Numbers on the thoughts so that we can analyse
how well they stand up in future. We shall not follow the traditional pundits'
path of talking about "Nice Types" & "Should come on for the run.."
type nonsense because this is pointless and gets no-one anywhere. It is
actually worse than that useless because it holds back people trying new
things and improving race review. British racing is suffocated by a self
elected crust of 'Experts' circulating around the same hackneyed and unproven
phrases. They may be unsaveable but the biggest harm is the next generation
growing up see this balderdash as the repertoire to aspire to and parrot
learn.
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Some of the numbers will prove wrong but no
progress occurs without an amount of foolishness so we will live with it
and try to learn the lessons. Who knows what makes you wake up in a cold
sweat in the middle of the night but B2yoR knows people for whom the thought
of Star Rover being rated OR100+ and Fratellino OR95 can do it to them.
How can horses so relatively slight produce that much power? A small number
of early 2yos be will under-rated and make you look daft but time to learn
the lessons. Star Rover was on parade at Doncaster on his 3yo debut and
the pictures below show him on the first day of the season in 2009 and
on Saturday :-
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A bit bulkier than memory recalls if still
small and still with the rangy movement within his frame. His full brother,
Jamesway, starts his career tomorrow and interesting the see how he compares.
Anyway, with a nod to the caveats (excuses) of paddock types that it was
cold, and the horses were all rugged up, and some did not get to the parade
ring at all and anyway it takes some races to get your 'eye in' lets us
move one.
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The two Fahey horses came in together and
both wearing big rugs which makes it difficult. Chiswick Bey is
notably shorter than Las Verglas Star and much quieter in attitude.
The immediate reaction was that if this was the best of the two then he
was another 'Mister Hardy' and a smaller model but strong and an absolute
natural racehorse. Here are the pair unveiled :-
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Chiswick Bey is shorter by strongly built
with a good length to the body and a deeper chest and strong in that area.
He carries his head down but the whole seems balanced and he moves fluently.
His attitude could make you think he was cowed by the experience but the
eyes show he is relaxed and taking it all in. A quiet professional. Mister
Hardy was there in the Lincoln as a 5yo still running off OR92 and you
presume on size and strength and the ability he showed that this one can
match that and perhaps a little higher. But likely to come up short in
better races as Miser Hardy did. Las Verglas Star is a different type -
taller, narrower in the body and shorter bodied and less neatly put together.
He was also one of the group of fizzy attitudes on display. This showed
up in the race where he was pressing the pace while Chiswick Bey was settled
in second rank listening for instructions from his jockey. But LVS seems
a sold size and ought to be able to rate OR68-73 and perhaps finished behind
the GG because of the free running and a fade. No surprise to see him compete
well to win in a minor race next time.
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The other three who pulled clear with Chiswick
Bey are pictured below as Lady Brookie and the Barry Hills pair
of Squires Gate and Diamond Geezah :-
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Lady Brookie is a good size and a rangy mover
and bigger than a typical Makbul and a bit bigger than Phantom Whisper
(Picture Link)
by the same sire who won the Brocklesby in 2005 and ended up rated OR90+.
A lighter build than the colts and tapers off a bit in the hindquarters.
Probably a longer term OR78 to 80 type but will rate higher than that at
2yo. A good prospect to win the Salisbury Fillies' Conditions race in early
May.
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The Hills pair are what you would expect from
him in being medium sized, or a little bigger, neatly made and with solid
build. Squires Gate is likeable and masculine with a strong neck and chest.
Diamond Geezah is smaller and more compact but deep bodied and strongly
made. SG is a notably better type than Swilly Ferry whom the trainer had
finish third in the race in 2009 and ended up rated 90+ after failing in
nurseries off OR80 marks. Squires Gate ought to be able to get to OR90+
and compete with Chiswick bey to be the best of the group. In the race
jockey Hills made at least two forward moves with him as he fiddled about
with track and race position. Diamond Geezah is probably a low OR80s type
overall but would have no problem rating OR75+.
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With the OR75+ types filling the first four
home let us look at the David Evans pair to see why the 5th in Little Libretto
suggests the Garbage Gap came after the 4th. The filly Little Libretto
is on the left below and the colt The Best Mode on the right :-
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Now, neither jockey Gannon nor Ahern are large
even by jockey standards but they are looking pretty big on this pair of
horses. David Evans buys lot of these little ones and you can spot the
usable ones each year when they win on debut and the others will be wound
up taught to win something along the way. As soon as The Best Mode appeared,
even rugged, the paddock reviewer knew he was in the wrong place in the
profile. He would need to be an OR79 type and well prepared, like Lady
Brookie, to get involved. This is an OR60s type at best. Interesting to
see what Evans can do with them given the early start but no 'Star Rover'
here.
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Ok, so the first four are the OR80+ and better
and the open maiden winners is there anything in behind the GG we should
take notice of? Some of interest and let us start with James Given's Sky
Diamond and Clive Brittain's Mayhab :-
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The one on the left cost €20,000 and
the one one the right 80,000 guineas. Sky Diamond gets the reviewer excited
for a moment at the thought that he is 33/1 and comes from a trainer who
gets early FTO winners. Despite the guff in the Racing Post about Given
having a poor strike rate with debut 2yos which is just wrong. He has two
types of 2yos - competitive out first and a tail of 3yo set-ups. The strike
rate with first type is fine. Do some proper thinking, Carter, and stop
averaging across different populations.
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Sky Diamond vies with Squires Gate for being
the bigger, masculine strong type in the field but is a certain OR75+ rater
on looks. The excitement settles down quickly when it soon becomes clear
that this one is not just 'Fizzy' but wild and mentally unfocussed. They
never win in that state. As the jockey tries to get on he steams off and
leaves the jockey, cartoon style, in mid-air legs paddling and drags the
stable lad over as he tries to hold him. Jockey lands on top of handler
as he descends and the horse is loose. Loose again as they persist and
the jockey eventually clambers on on the exit walk and nearly gets put
over the rails before the horse goes off. A nutcase at present but obviously
one to check next time because he is much better than the form suggests.
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The only reason the Brittain pair of horses
got to the Parade Ring at all before the others had gone to the start was
Sky Diamond's antics on top of a general lateness. Poor effort from that
stable. Mayhab may have cost a lot but on a quick look he is unexciting.
Below medium size and just an ordinary build, Say OR71 unless he is one
of those smaller, well-made ones who surprise. Not one obviously to follow
though.
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How about this pair for the future? Below
are Channon's Saucy Buck and Mirror Lad who was supposed
to be Dascombe's fast starter for his new operation.
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Saucy Buck was one of the quiet ones to the
point of lethargy. Small, compact body and deep enough but lacking range
and overall quality. OR65 say. Mirror Lad cost 9,000 guineas to retain
but the fact he had been punted off to 'The Mirror' for their Racing Club
and the trainer's record might have you thinking he must be better than
that price. But he's another small one in review and underpowered behind
and walks stiffly behind to add to the negative effect. Forget him for
the day and OR69? Another not obvious to follow but the type that can win
an early race.
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Next are the other three than ran in the race
with, from the left, Stan Moore's Sir Lunchalott, Majestic Style
a filly for Alan Jarvis and Brittain's second string with the entirely
gormless Diplomasi :-
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Sir Lunchalott looks quite neatly made in
the picture and a medium size. The side-on picture hides how narrow he
is and underpowered because of it. Trainer Moore seems to get a lot of
these cheap ones who are an ok size and look plausible. But he never seems
to get the best out of them. 2009 gave a good example with Glen Lass being
a similarly cheap one of good size. He couldn't win with her in lots of
goes (sound familiar) and then she was claimed by another trainer and started
winning claimers and is rated OR64 now. This one ought to be low OR60s
but looked very slow on the day.
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Majestic Style came across as a solid prospect
at her level and that ought to be into the low OR70s at least. Medium size with
a solid build and good length to her body. She used this well showing a
rangy movement and if she can shift herself well she could rate higher.
Soft going wasn't going to show her off well given that fluent movement
rather than raw power looked her better side. Like to see her on the Polytrack
next and what sort of price she is.
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The picture shows Diplomasi getting to the
parade ring late with Mayhab and looking startled, He continuing this right
through the race as he floundered around at the back. Another below medium
size and lightly built and OR64 say. Not one to follow even when he wises
up. Brittain runs two more at Southwell tomorrow and he must have a good,
natural one, to surprise us with somewhere but the pair here did not obviously
stand up his claim to have his strongest group of 2yos in number and quality.
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A lot of fizziness on display and two of those
noted for it managed to get withdrawn at the start for panicking in the
stalls ot refusing to go in. Below are the filly Lexi's Princess
and the Channon colt Sarandjam :-
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Lexi's Princess is by Verglas and a, smaller,
version of Las Verglas Star by the same sire. Ought to be ok for OR64 overall.
Sarandjam looks a ready, early type and as lightly made as any in the field.
OR62 and need to win early.
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In summary, behind the Garbage gap there actually
was not a long tail of full-on garbage but a lot of OR55-69 types lacking
devlopment potential for the most part. The majority have the potential
to compete in weaker early races. Might well pick out Sky Diamond and Majestic
Style as interesting types for less fashionable stables who might be value
for their next two outing. Las Verglas Star probably do much better next
time. Inclined to leave the Brittain pair and Mirror Lad to win unsupported
as unlikely to be value and do not really feel like ones to follow. Squires
Gate appeals as the best of them by season end and Chiswick Bey ought to
be able to win a later Conditions race and place in Listed races. What
about the others?
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