British 2yo Racing - 2013 Race Result :- 818 : Fri, September 27th - Newmarket Rowley 3:15, 8f Group 1 (Fillies') (1), "Fillies' Mile"

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2013 Season Race Result

Race 818 : Fri, September 27th
Newmarket Rowley 3:15, 8f Group 1 (Fillies') (1), "Fillies' Mile"

2013 Season Home
2013 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	Video	VP
GFG	100 [Compare]		None	None

	Horse	SP	[EST]	Run	Wnr	Trainer	Dw	Hf	Run Notes
1	Chriselliam	28	65.0	5	m	C. B. Hills	1		Drift 25/1,
2	Rizeena	1.75	63.0	8	g	C. E. Brittain	5		3rd in (Fr) Gp1 6TO, won (Ir) Fils 6f Gp1 6TO,
3	Ihtimal	2.5	59.0	6	g	S. B. Suroor	4		Drift 2/1, 1stCols,
4	Wonderfully	5	56.5	5		A. P. O'Brien	3		Supp 6/1,
5	Avenue Gabriel	9	56.3	5		P. D. Deegan	7		Supp 14/1,
6	Sound Reflection	7	52.8	3	d	C. Appleby	2		2ndCols,
7	Uchenna	66	46.3	3	m	D. M. Simcock	8
8	Ballybacka Queen	25	34.3	5		P. A. Fahy	6

SUMMARY

GFG from G on decs and GGF for Meeting on Previous Day. GStick 10:30am as 8.2 Cent & Stds, 8.4 FrSd (Check where stalls are).

Stalls ?? of Far Side Course.

17DegC. Medium Easterly Wind = 3/4 Headwind from Left.

Another interesting input to the list of where the Market makers fall down when assessing Prices. This the reverse of the usual which is to overvalue 'Potential', expecially when backed up by the 'right' connections, such as Radiator in the previous Gp3 race. Chriselliam appears 'exposed' so allowed to be 33/1 area. But, she came into the race with OR95 and that a jump from 85 after 3TO. Minor improvement made her competitive and the Ratings area between, say, OR92 and 112 is about the most misunderstood part in 2yo races. The perceived 'chasm' & 'jump in class' for profiles like Chriselliam's often isn't there or really just a minor step.

Richard Hughes riding Chriselliam said he knew he had a 'Squeak' because he thought he had been "lucky to beat her" at HYDK on 3-time winner Chief Barker. She had since run at Deauville in a Listed race and neither trainer not jockey had any reason for that underperformance. On STO she beat another solid OR80s Hannon colt in a Course Record at WWCK (owed a lot to conds). Put all of that together and make her a progressive filly who was unlucky in LSTD 3TO & ignore French run and she should be 10/1 or 12/1.

Race a slower pace and first three home having to use their efforts to get to the lead. As ever Rizeena took time to get going and a bit head up and laboured but got clear lead but run down by a similar size fully (by the same sire who cost 40k to her 50k). Rizeena again giving the impression a stiffer test would see her look better. Despite being a Queen Mary winner and possibly beaten by horse with better kick here and delivered well by Hughes (who said it was a 'Stop-Start race' where he took 0.5f to get cover but felt by Halfway he would probably win}.

Ihtimal held up near the other two but, as Saeed bin Suroor hinted at LTO, she needed to grow for her lack of scope not to limit her against bigger fillies.