 |
|
||||||||||||
Newmarket July 2:20, 6f Listed (Fillies') (1), "Empress Stakes" |
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
| Horse | SP | [EST] | LB | Run | Wnr | Trainer | Dw | Hf | LBL | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Calypso Beat (h) | 25 | 63.0 | - | 3 | m | K. A. Ryan | 5 | -0.3 | Drift 20/1, Ld Erl Sttld, CmfLd, IncrPc-2f+, Po-2f, SStall ins-1f Uphill Chalgd, Po-0.5f, Resp to Ln | ||||
| 2 | Parsley | 9 | 61.5 | 0.5 | 3 | a/V | R. Hannon (Jnr) | 3 | 1.5 | Drift 7/1, TvOk-2f+, Eff-2f Po, 4th-1f+, Resp-1f Po, Chal ins-1f, poLn | ||||
| 3 | Tigrilla | 2.5 | 57.8 | 1.8 | 3 | m | Roger Varian | 1 | 1.0 | Supp 7/2, LdgLn Hf, Po-2f StdsSd of Grp, po ins-0.5f, FdLn | ||||
| 4 | Zeb Un Nisa | 3 | 56.3 | 2.3 | 3 | m | R. Charlton | 8 | 1.5 | Drift 11/4, 2R Hf, TvOk-2f+ SwcL, Eff-2f FrSd of Grp Resp, Po, SChal ins-1f, po-0.5f, FdLt | ||||
| 5 | Accipiter | 5.5 | 54.8 | 2.8 | 2 | m/V | C. F. Wall | 4 | 0.5 | Supp 8/1, LdgLn Hf, TvOk-2f+, Eff-2f, Po, Chal-1.5f, SStall Uphill, SResp-0.5f+ Po, 3rd ins-0.5f po SHmp, FdLt | ||||
| 6 | Bonnie Grey | 12 | 50.3 | 4.3 | 3 | m | B. R Millman | 7 | 3.2 | Supp 16/1, 3R Hf, Dv-2f+ SSTR, Po-1.5f Cent, SwcR ins-1f to StdsSd Po, poins-0.5f | ||||
| 7 | Littlemissblakeney | 5 | 48.0 | 5.0 | 5 | m | H. B. R. Palmer | 2 | 0.3 | Drift 4/1, LdgLn Hf, Dv-2f+ STTR, Po ins-2f, po-1f LsGrnd, Fd-0.5f, Small IC? | ||||
| 8 | Juventas | 16 | 48.0 | 5.0 | 4 | m | M. R. Channon | 6 | 3.5 | B-1 PHmp-2, Last Erl Resp, 3R Hf, Dv-2f+ STTR, Po-1.5f, SwcR-1f to StdsSd of Grp, Po, po ins-0.5f | ||||
| 9 | Cajoling | 80 | 45.7 | 5.8 | 4 | m | J. G. Portman | 9 | 4.2 | Drift 66/1, 3R Hf Wdst, Ngl-2.5f, Dv-2f+, Po-1.5f+, po ins-1f | ||||
|
|
Going Changed to GS after the race. GF as on Decs. 3mm rain Fri into Sat. Charlton on his Website pre-race = "At Newmarket on Saturday Zeb Un Nisa runs in the Empress Stakes a Listed race for two year old fillies over six furlongs. Being only just over a week after Royal Ascot there is always a chance that the better two year olds have run there, but there is plenty of opposition including Littlemissblakeney who ran a stormer for Hugo Palmer in the Queen Mary to be beaten less than three lengths. The form of her maiden at Bath is working out surprisingly well and it would be great to sneak some black type for Hascombe Stud who are experiencing a fantastic season. " A Good point from Charlton about the proxinity of Royal Ascot and also in openly admitting this is a 'Black Type' attempt in a weaker race (getting rid of 'Black Type' as a stand-in for judging quality using plain numbers would benefit horse racing but too many people are entrenched in wanting this flawed method). Baffled by him saying the BATH race ZUN won is 'working out well'. Is that 'Black Type' style of making phrases mean whatever you want them to? Or is he plain confused? Field held at the start because of Thunder & Lightning and raining. Fillies walking around in front of the stalls on basis of they would not put them in stalls with lightning around. Race run around 15 mins late and in Heavy rain with a lot of divots being kicked up as field raced Centre Track. Bunch finish as would befit a 70s to 80s Nursery, which is probably what is was despite all the Hype & piffle about 'Smart' & 'High Class 2yos' on CA & elsewhere. A lot of little homebreds trying to 'Black Type' (Groan) plus some precocious & zippy ones. Last 3 runnings of the race proudced the odd later Listed winners as 2yos (ie against similar precocious fields). Only filly in those 3 runnings you could class as having Listed+ 3yo+ form would be Lily's Angel who won in 2011. She won an AW Gp3 at 4yo and got to OR110 but without ever really running ablove the OR90s. Like 'Black Type' another artefact of letting Race Titles and Class rate the horses. Rather than just rating the horses directly. [Post VRev thoughts] = First point to make is that the coverage of the race is appalling in the video. Whole race covered by a single camera in the Grandstand. With the rain that makes the visibility for the first 3-4f range from as close to Nil as makes no difference to very poor. The Head-on nature of the shots making relative distances hard to judge. Does Britain really sell this quality of Coverage of 'Black Type' races.abroad? Stalls Stands' Side but field quickly moves across to form up in Centre Track but with an 8-10 Lane width. Given the poor visibility Run Notes cover the last 3f other than trying to note the slow starters. Slightly unusual Shape to the race. With an average pace at most to around 2f out with the first 4 through Halfway in a Leading line with Parsley (thats 'The Herbs' NOT the 'Magic Roundabout') travelling well behind and ZUNisa going ok in 2R. Other 3 making up a widespread 3R. Calypso Beat ups the pace 2F out to start the final efforts and a small 'whiplash' effect stretches the field lengthways a bit and the stronger ones go better on the uphill climb into the last 1f. But those efforts never looking relatively 'strong' and the field closing back together on the plateau to the finish line. VTLs not much difference overall Halfway to Final. Only real changes to positions from Hf to Final caused by Parsley converting her going well 2F out into a 2nd place but making no ground on CBeat. Plus fades by Littlemissblakeney before the last 0.5f and by Accipiter in the last 0.5f. Calypso Beat still the biggest as STO and able to roll on again having led and then challenged as she stalled a little uphill. Going away at the finish and staying on as if 7f ok. Probably the most physical scope. Only other strong point of interest is the performane of Littlemissblakeney as the first stronger test of the Royal Ascot race form levels. A consistent theme over many years has been finding the RASCT race rated too highly. This matters less for the real Group quality ones up front who carry on racing against each other. The problem comes with the lesser ones who finish 2R to midfield. The natural reaction, even for someone who knows the pitfalls in rating races by their Names & Class, is to pin the Front of the race too high on the absolute scale. Look back through the field and there will be horses with Estimates that just feel 'wrong' compared to the PRev notes. LMB a small and zippy one and the sort who might run OR80s early through precociousness but will end up OR70s and perhaps below. The type who don't win at 3yo having 'failed to train on' (i.e. not getting bigger and stronger in line with normal growing from a teenager to adulthood) and starting the 3yo on an inflated OR. She was 5th in the Queen Mary behind a gap from 3 x bigger & better looking ones in the 1st three home. The [39] estimate felt too high but she had shown some extra zip in her AW win to leave her at that level with a note to check how that rating worked out. LMB small in this group and did not stay 6f in these conditions. So, not a definite 'No' but 39 probably too high for her & Arabian Queen in finishing 5-6th and best-of-the-rest in the QMary behind the more substantial fillies. Which indcates the overal rating of the race too high? Needs revisiting with some more evidence available but a cautionary note added. |