British 2yo Racing - 2014 Race Result :- 752 : Sat, September 20th - Newbury 2:20, 6f Group 2 (1), "Mill Reef Stakes"

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2014 Season Race Result

Race 752 : Sat, September 20th
Newbury 2:20, 6f Group 2 (1), "Mill Reef Stakes"

2014 Season Home
2014 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	Video	VP
S	74.35 [Compare]		None	None

	Horse	SP	[EST]	LB	Run	Wnr	Trainer	Dw	Hf	LBL	Run Notes
1	Toocoolforschool (p)	4	76.0	-	5	m	K. R. Burke	6		0.0	Supp 13/2, , SEnq = Jk Banned for Whip Use
2	Growl	11	55.0	7.0	3	m	B. J. Meehan	1		0.0	Drift 9/1,
3	Kibaar	16	53.5	7.5	9	m	J. W. Hills	4		0.0	Drift 12/1,
4	Strath Burn	1.38	44.5	10.5	3	m	C. B. Hills	2		0.0	Supp 6/4, , WTRB = Trnr's Rep said Hrs unsuited to Soft
5	Jungle Cat	3.33	37.0	13.0	7	m	M. Johnston	8		0.0	Supp 4/1, , WTRB = Trnr's Rep said Hrs unsuited to Soft
6	Baitha Alga	7.5	39.7	13.1	6	g	R. Hannon (Jnr)	7		0.0	Drift 5/1, , WTRB = Jk said Hrs Lost Action
NR	Limato					l/L	H. Candy	3			NR = Going. Declared 08:32am.
NR	Mubtaghaa					v	W. J. Haggas	5			NR = Going. Declared 17.22pm the Previous Day.

SUMMARY

Soft from GF on Decs. 12mm rain Thu night & 6mm on Friday.

Good Example of whether you can have "too much information" on the day before the race. Trainer Candy reported widely as saying Limato had been through a stop/start training programme since his last run. He had been on 2 separate courses of antibiotics in that period and the hold-ups had meant he missed the Gimcrack in August. But, what do you do with that information? We rarely get much of the 'back story' from trainers and most that comes to light is in post race interviews folowing a win. Perhaps some trainer saying "...he was at death's door after his last run and scoped a very sick horse. But he's been back to his old self in the last fortnight...". Since there is no orderly catalogue of the information to be tested for whether it carries any worthwhile 'signal' then ignoring it seems the best approach. If Candy is running him then he isn't 'ill'. An area where Classical Paddock Review is truly useful to be able to judge how ready a horse is for the Day by looking at it, against a background of how it has looked before previous runs, Rather than worrying how to 'weight' some words from a trainer when you have no idea how what value to place on them.

=== Post Race ===

On first look the decision to not risk Limato on Soft going seemed a good one. All 3 of Baitha Alga, Strath Burn & Jungle Cat running poorly on the suface. SB looking very bulky and taking time to get going (need to dev to carry his bulk better?). BA looking uncomfortable and not getting his footing when asked for an effort. JC getting going well enough to race prominently but folding tamely and perhaps over-the-top to some extent.

Toocoolforschool handling the going well and looking in good condition to pull away for a comfortable win. Trainer Burke in a tremendously good run with his horses (to the extent you it is so good you wonder about how it is being achieved). This win bringing his record to 17 wins from 48 runs since August 1 (large ROI profit). 34 of 48 have made the first 3. A good number pulling away and finding more than you would