British 2yo Racing - 2014 Race Result :- 87 : Tue, May 20th

BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2014 Season Race Result

Race 87 : Tue, May 20th
Bath 2:10, 5.7f Maiden (5)

2014 Season Home
2014 Results

[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.

GOING	TIME	RcPc	Video	VP
F	70.88 [Compare]	-1	None	Link

	Horse	SP	[EST]	LB	Run	Wnr	Shp	Trainer	Dw	Hf	LBL	Run Notes
1	Brown Velvet (v)	5	40.0	-	3			H. B. R. Palmer	1	2	2.2	Drift 9/2, BOk RL, LdgPr Erl Sttld, Clear 2nd+2f for free, SPrg-2.5f, -1.5L-2f, po OwnPc, Eff-1.5f, po, LdLn
2	Arlecchino's Leap (v)	16	44.9	0.1	3	N		M. D. I. Usher	4	1	-2.2	BkWL, LdgPr Erl Sttld, Ld+1f on SlowPc, 2L+ Clear+2f for free, po-2f RL OwnPc, Eff-1.5f po, FdLt, HddLn
3	Kassbaan	2.75	38.9	2.0	2			M. Botti	8	6	7.0	Drift 5/2, BkWL Wd Held Immed, Fre+0.5f Hld HgR, Hld for 2f Wdst by A5, JkQt-2f, Eff-1.5f, po, Whip-0.5f+, po, SMvAwk Ln
4	Kibaar	0.5	37.4	2.5	3	M		J. W. Hills	6	3	4.7	Supp 8/13, B1 QHeld Immed, FFH+0.5f Hld HgR, H-4+1f, SFFH & Hld for 2f, -3L-2f JkWait, SwcR-1.5f Eff Po, -1L-1f, po, Stall-0.5f, FdLt
5	Verchild Lad	40	19.4	8.6	2			P. D. Evans	9	8	8.0	B-1 Wdst PResp, Hld Erl, H-6+1f XB Last, SFre & Hld for 1.5f, Eff-1.5f Cent po, Fd-0.5f
6	Invincible Zeb	16	17.9	9.1	2			R. Harris	7	5	6.5	B-1 PBmpRh-2, Resp Erl, Blckd+1f Hld, SFre+1.5f SwcR & Pull to Prg, Whip2f po, HgL-1.5f, Fd ins-1f
7	Sculptured	33	7.6	10.8	2			Joanna Hughes	5	7	7.2	B-1, Hld Erl, Hmp+1f -2L X to RL, DvHf TTR. Dv-2f+, po, Fd-0.5f+, Small
8	Saphira Silver	66	-49.4	29.8	2			N. S. Evans	2	4	6.0	BOk ins, Ngl Erl Resp, 3rd+0.5f 1Wd SHeld, SBmp+1f SwcL to RL+1.5f Sttld, Outpcd-2.5f, Last-2f, Fd-1.5f, Tiny
NR	Endislie							J. S. Moore	3			NR = Vet's Cert (Other). Declared 10:39am.
NR	Hell Of A Lord							W. G. M. Turner	10			NR = Going. Declared 08:59am.

SUMMARY

F from GFF on Decs despite 37mm of rain since the last Meeting on May 5th and 2mm in the previous 24hrs to early am.

Messy race with a Slow Pace despite the Final Time and a Medium+ part Tailwind making fast conditions. Dawdle for the first 1F with nothing wanting to lead. Lower drawn pair of Arlecchino's Leap and Brown Velvet then taking the iniative and going to 1st & 2nd and getting easy leads over the rest of the field with Kibaar held back when starting to pull and Kassbaan racing wide with his A5. ALeap slightly keen in FT Visor and 2L+ clear of BV after 2F with 3rd+ at that point the best part of 5L back. With fast conditions and a usable pace the chances of getting 5-8L back on upper 60s horses that don't stop is going to require a high class horse.

Looking at the final result and working from the back then the pace was enough to drop the tiny Saphira Silver who is useless as a racehorse. The small filly Sculptured who is come sort of 50s got behind and made a mild effort before fading. She finished with a pair of, say, lower 60s Nursery types who were also held back and got behind and so-so efforts before fading. The real interest in the race is then what you make of the front 4 home and whether they finished in the order reflecting their abilities. Brown Velvet looks a later 60s type lacking scope and will struggle in solid Nurseries (not necessarily in early ones versus her own over-rated type) off the inflated OR she gets as a winner. She made a laboured effort and got to the lead by fading less than AL. Arlecchino's Leap perhaps a 69-71 sort and got a soft lead and maybe raced a tad too free. Even so, he was overhauled by BV at 5lbs weight difference and she had to make 1.5L on his in the last 2f. Which seems like two similar level horses, AL with a bit more frame to grow into scope, running a believable shape race here.

Kibaar has looked a 75+ one with his bulk having to make up for some lack of height & frame. Say he is a 76-77 one which means he has little in hand of BV with her rxg 5lbs. He certainly doesn't have enough in hand to overcome being hauled back out of the race early and then fighting the jockey for 2F, He made 2L back of the 2-3L head start AL & BV had 2f out but then faded earlier than those two. Even if he is an 82 horse it wasn't enough. The other other lurking issue here is that this sort of struggling to convert a 'Kibaar' to a winner is trainer typical. As his recent season Strike Rates of between 2% & 8% would suggest. Average SR would be around 10% and having gone above 10% in the last 2-3 years with less runners per race, on average.

Kassbaan looks an ok 75+ one on his NMKT debut picture but he is perhaps smaller than the picture suggested. An A5 jockey here a surprise as if he is a lesser one the trainer needs to give some 'help' to compete to get a win. Perhaps the lad rides him at home. Whatever, the A5 had clearly been told to hold Kassbaan up and make him settle with meant the jk spent most of the race doing that. Meanwhile he was racing too far off the pace, too wide on the track as well as wasting energy fighting with the horse. But, like Kibaar, you then have to judge whether the laboured effort in the last 1.5f towards AL/BV means a sub-75 one or was ok for a horse trying to run down a pair that got a soft lead. Staying on ok at the finish.