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Newcastle 5:10, 5f Novice (4) |
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| Horse | SP | [EST] | LB | Run | Wnr | Trainer | Dw | Hf | LBL | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Ravenhoe | 2.5 | 30.0 | - | 3 | d | M. Johnston | 2 | -0.3 | Supp 11/4, B1 Cent, Ld Erl Sttld, SttlPc+0.5f, CmfLd, Ngl-2f+ Jnd, Dv-2f Po, poLt | ||||
| 2 | Gin In The Inn | 0.73 | 27.0 | 1.0 | 2 | m | R. A. Fahey | 4 | 0.3 | Drift 4/6, BOk RL, 2nd+0.5f, SFreOv, TvBest-2f JkWait, Eff-1.5f STTR HgR, Po, Sunbal-1f, Po, SHdUp-0.5f+, po ins-0.5f, Uncmf Gng? | ||||
| 3 | Island Flame | 9 | 14.8 | 1.8 | 1 | R. A. Fahey | 3 | 2.0 | Supp 10/1, BOk, H-1 Erl 2R, SFre+0.5f Hld for 1f, SFlyJmp+1f, Unbal-2f+ SLsGrnd, Dv ins-2f po SUnbalOv, Po ins-1f, poLtr | |||||
| 4 | Krystallite | 7 | -277.0 | 99.0 | 2 | S. P. J. Dixon | 1 | 1.0 | Supp 8/1, QFit, AP SBuzzy, BLh Wdst NL, QFre+0.5f, QFFH for 1.5f, HgL Hf, Stop-2f, WTRB = Jk said Hrs Lost its Action but returned sound. Vet found No Problem | |||||
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GF on early AM as on Decs. Watering but no details given other than water was still being applied in early AM and due to complete during the morning. GStick reading from 15:00pm. Cold. Strong to Stiff Westerly Wind = 3/4 Headwind from the Left. Stalls Centre. =========== Interesting race to watch on the First View and try to pick out from it what was really going on and not just look for excuses because you are sure Gin In The Inn is a better horse than Ravenhoe. A perfectly reasonable question from anyone looking at this result on the page is how that can be? Ravenhoe won with GITI having an A5 riding in a simple race where that was mostly weight-for-free. At points throught he race you would be happy with your take on GITI's superiority starting off with being bigger than Ravenhoe as expected. Into the final 2f he also appeared to be going better. Start by proposing an 'Excuse Model' for the result then see whether it can survive the barbed questioning. In general an interesting day's racing with form lines being pulled together and tests of whether the PRev & VRev is up-to-speed yet and properly calibrated for items like relative size. EXCUSE Point 1 = more questioning of WTF CoCs are doing watering so much on firm ground? A constant refrain over the past week with time judges saying some meetings have been run on GS when the official statement has been GF and so on. Here the CoC was still watering through the Morning and the Going Stick reading came in at 15:00pm. The reading was 7.0. If you look at the Time Comparison page linked to from this result it gives the GStick reading for the meetings 2012-14. This is the 14th reading noted and only 3 have been easier going. Those in the range 5.8 to 6.8 and officially S/GS/GGS in order. The last time NEWC returned a 7.0 reading the official going was GGS. Something is very wrong here. Watch the race and you get the usual thing in these circumstances with the horses kicking up slim divots which are presumably the 1+ inch of wet soil sitting on top of a much firmer base. To humans walking it will fell firm as it will if you stick a probe deep enough in. To a horse it feels like you have coated a wooden floor with sticky grease and feel loose to them. Gin In The Inn is a larger and less natural runner than Ravenhoe and struggled to put down his full power and rolled around a bit. The inefficiency meaning he got tired and was fading later on with the more stable Ravenhoe just plugging on and not going away from Island Flame. EXCUSE Point 2 = A slow point and partly because the going was not GF but mainly because of the slow pace. This turned the race into 1.5f sprint and the nippier, ready type in Ravenhoe given a better chance in that set-up. Especially on loose ground. GITI still the better horse and the better scope and put this down to a learning process for a horse who is still a bit green and raw. GITI in the (in)famous Fahey Vine Tweet video getting run away from late uphill by a nippier model in Paddy Power and perhaps needs a different Power Output test. Note that PP entered by Fahey for the important 5f maiden at the Guineas meeting. Time to think of any other excuses and whether the two prime ones make any sense on a full VRev. === Post VRev === After VRev inclined to view of a Messy race and neither of the Fahey horses handling the loose surface. Ravenhoe a neat and ready type, smaller than GITI & Kyrstallite and less build than IF. Got a comfortable lead and race turn into a 1.5f+ sprint against GITI and handled the going better. Willing and 'Now' type and believe this is Ravehoe's peak and he will will struggling off too high ORs in later seasons (unless he finds a weak Northern one). Slight niggle with Gin In The Inn ridden by the A5 with Hamilton on IF. Fahey think that GITI needed a 5lbs 'help'? Never fully settled and with his head braced against the Jk for the first half of the race without looking visibll too bad. Travelled best into the last 2f but hung right a bit when asked to up it and make his final effort. Never looking fully balanced and losing ground on Ravenhoe close to the line. Inclined to give him another chance on less loose ground and with a better pace to show he is 80+ and a better prospect than Ravenhoe longer term. Island Flame ridden by Hamilton. Only cost €6k but looked well bought just on the yearling picture on Fahey's website (still with the Sale Hip Number sticker attached). Not a typical compact and deep Kodiac. Lengthier body and neck perhaps too long. But, an ok size for the money. Perhaps the shortest here and still looking lengthy. But, better build than Ravenhoe. Held back to 2R and did a bit of Fly Leaping when held early on from running free. Looked green int he second half of the race and having more trouble than GITI handling the going. Unbalanced, part stumbling and the odd slight Fly Jump again. Despite that only losing about 2L+ to the leading pair and closing back towards them late on. A niggle that her lengthy body causing some of the movement problems and Front to Back not well timed and a bit 'weak' in the core to hold both ends together. But, ok promise for 70+ here although the niggle about how messy the race was. Check how she moves STO on better going. Would expect her to be better 6f given the set up. Krystallite a STO for Dixon having run well on debut. Trainer's 2yos often show most of whatthey have FTO and do not progress. Looking at Krystallite here you would say the reason was a bit of the old 'Godolpin' problem. Krystallite looking tauit and muscled and bigger than Ravenhoe with more snap to the movement. But, looking a bit too too tightly wired and buzzy overall. Held in the stalls and broke left handing. Then pulling fiercely and fighting for her head. Seemed to have settled down by Halfway and with the others but then started hanging left and came to a near stop around 2f out on the Far Side alone and looking unbalanced. Vet found no problems. Worth noting she was bandaged behind again. Ok size and ought to be 75 but the niggle over the trainer's MO not helped by this run. |