1. Introduction
2. JL Dunlop's 2006 season debut runs
3. The SP Story
4. Conclusions
5. Appendix A - 2006 Debut Ratings for JL Dunlop 2yos ordered by rating
6. Appendix B - 2006 Debut Ratings for JL Dunlop 2yos ordered by Starting Price (SP)

    A previous article on this site - "B2yoR ratings and spotting potential from debut runs" - covered trainer John Dunlop's approach to 2yo racing and considered how his methods impacted on the ability shown in debut runs by his 2yos. This background was then used to consider the debut runs by his 2yos in 2005 to see how well they matched up with the theory. The article proposed a number of guidelines by which Mr Dunlop's debut runs in 2006 could be assessed to enable a prediction of the likely ability level of each 2yo (and their likely improvement from debut). We can now look back on 2006 to see whether the guidelines were useful.

    Obviously, it is going to be beneficial for you to read that initial article before going on to the later sections of this one because most of the background is not going to be repeated here. However, it is worth listing a summary of the guidelines for judging the 2006 debuts that were in the first article :-

• The standard preparation and high debut fitness levels mean that debut rating level will be a good indicator of overall ability.
• Runners capable of winning in open maidens would be expected to rate 60+ on debut.
• Debut wins come about through a combination of average, or above average, ability coupled with average, or below average, race strength. They are not high-class performances.
• Debut runners rating between 50-59 will include occasional runners which can develop to show winning and/or 70+ form. However, to be considered as likely to show this improvement they would need to have shown some combination of :-
• inexperience on debut which clearly cost them 5+ rating points
• positive support in the market, probably at less than 10/1
• getting into the race at some point and been within 2 lengths of the leaders [at halfway]
• Any horse rated 45 or below on debut is almost certainly a moderate athlete at best and little should be expected from them at 2yo.
• Runners will show peak form on their second runs and are likely to show 5-10 points improvement from a normal debut run. Unless
• they are superior runners who can show some progression after STO.
• there was an identifiable reason for an underperformance on debut.

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    Appendix A below shows the 48 debut runs in 2006 for J.L. Dunlop's 2yos ranked by the debut rating given by B2yoR (i.e. the [Est] column). The table is quite large so it is recommended that you open a COPY of it in a new, and separate, window while you read the remainder of the article.

    These are the ratings given at the time of the run and no later adjustments have been made. Each run is colour coded to give a simple visual guideline to the subsequent performances associated with the debut performance level. The colour coding is :-
 

    Thinking back to the summary in the previous section we would expect the colours in the table to show some pattern. In an ideal world we would expect to see the 'Greens' grouped at the top with the 'Yellow' lines close behind and slightly overlapping, 'Red' at the bottom and the 'Orange' in between with overlap into the red. There is more mixing of reds and greens than in 2005 but still enough evidence of colour banding to suggest some underlying factors which are worth investigating. The bottom of the table is particularly consistent with the lowest raters (say below 35 if we put Maid To Believe to one side for a moment) made up of unplaced runners and single, later season outings, for backward types.

    We will take the guidelines from the Introduction section and go through them to see how well they were confirmed, or otherwise, in 2006.
 

GUIDELINE	MATCHED WELL?	EXCEPTIONS	SUMMARY
Debut rating a good indicator of overall ability	Less consistent than 2005 with more Green/Red mixing, enough colour 'bands' to suggest identifying mixing causes useful	Mostly later winners low on debut - Maid To Believe, Mutadarrej & Eglevski in particular	Reasonable guideline with which to assess most runners. Add techniques to catch exceptions .
Open Maiden winners will rate 52+ (60+ in 2005) on debut?	6 of 11 Open maiden winners rated 52+ on debut. 6 runners rated 52+ on debut and not win in season. 3 showed 65+ placed form, 1 ran only once more and disappointed. Balnagore overated on debut and 33/1 SP FTO a clue to ability. Emaara placed other two runs but at similar rating levels (beaten as odds-on fav both times)	5 below 52 - two only just below and with excuses (Scarlet Runner & Tarteel). Eglevski, Mutadarrej & Maid To Believe well below. [Victory Spirit won an Auction race 4TO, not an open maiden]	Less good fit than 2005 and possible the ratings err too much towards downgrading slow time races for this purpose? Odd race still over-rated despite changes in 2006.
Debut Wins not high class performances	3 debut wins, ranging from 60-74 rating. Highest rater won Listed race STO, middle placed in Novice races, lowest won a fillies' Novice & beaten in Listed class.	None.	Debut wins at 16/1 (twice) & 9/1 in big field maidens. Only Sudoor's run looked above average and she competed best up in class.  * Major point to learn - see Conclusions.
Debut runners rating 46-52 include some later winners if -  Inexperienced noted Some positives in SP Got into race	Examples = Scarlet Runner (first runner of season*, 1 length off lead halfway); Tarteel (pressed leader, jockey reported she ran green & got tired); Spanish Hidalgo (11/1, finished 2nd); Sacre Couer (12/1, missed break, finished 5th beaten <2L from poor draw); Victory Spirit (11/2, challenge 2 out, only rated 60 for later win)	No later winners rating in this range that didn't have some combination of the three factors. Note also Nadawat (7/2f debut, within 2L of leaders, pulled early, poor fade) showed 65+ placed form so fits model. El Dececy an interesting e.g., rated 46, on fringe of positive SP at 16/1, never got into race. Placed STO but probably moderate.	Guideline represent a reasonable way to assess potential in this group. More insight needed into what a 'positive SP' is - see section 3.
Any debut rated 45 (40?) or below, without excuse and/or positive(s), shows moderate runner and discountable as 2yo.	29 of 48 of his 2yos rated 45 or less on debut. Three of these won later and one showed 65+ placed form. But the other 25 nearly all moderate runners or backward types having one late season run.	Winners = Maid To Believe, Mutadarrej & Eglevski. Placed runner with 65+ form - Shmookh.	Identifiable reasons for the four exceptions?

    Overall a solid story with the majority of 2yos able to be categorised quite well from debut performance. The borderlines between ratings can become blurred but careful review of the debuts and surrounding circumstances can often clarify the position. However, the chief issue are the four low rated debuts that produced winners. The video of each of these races was reviewed to see whether these four winners could be classified similar to a debut winner rating 46-52 but with more reason for the low rating. The results were encouraging.

    Mutadarrej at 14/1 was on the borderline for a positive SP. Having broken well in a big field he was hampered twice after 1 furlong as the group came together and dropped to last more than 12 lengths behind the leaders. At halfway he disputed last place and showed a little inexperience when asked to progress later in the race. He responded well enough for his jockey to persist with his urgings and was still going forward at the line although only into 11th (beaten 7 lengths). The hampering cost him at least 8 lengths and took him out of a competitive placing. A solid case can be made that he could have rated into the higher 50s at least.

    Shmookh carried his owner's second colours but was at a shorter price as 4/1jf than Mesbaah (for trainer MA Jarvis) and an obvious positive by SP. Travelled close up behind the leaders and responded to pressure to move up to 3rd just before 1 furlong out but faded badly on the uphill finish at Newmarket's July course. That race was over 7f and he was dropped in distance to run over 6f for his two placed runs and showing better form. Again, a clearly identifiable reason for his low debut rating in that he failed to stay 7f.

    Eglevski again ran as second string, this time for the trainer, and this may have affected the SP at 20/1. The real problem came at the stalls were he reared up once loaded and got his front legs over the side bars and unseated his jockey. All the other horses were installed so when he settled down the jockey got back on and he took part anyway. Given this preliminary he ran a solid debut. Within 2 lengths of the leaders behind a moderate pace he showed inexperience and hung right when the 'sprint' started later in the race and faded back but only to 5th. Given the problems, a slow race and the fact that he needed 10f to win on his 5th outing a solid debut and a good case to be made that he could have rated higher.

    Maid To Believe also ran as second string for the trainer and also on the borderline for a positive SP going to 16/1 from 14/1. Broke well and front rank early before restrained back to 4th a length and a half behind the leaders. Responded after halfway to move to 3rd less than a length off the lead before getting tired, hanging right and fading in the last 2f. Showed similar 'head up' and inexperience when fading as Shmookh and Eglevski did. Another to pass the 'could rate higher' test.

    Before moving on to try to clarify what a 'Positive SP' is for the stable it is worth mentioning the circumstances of Scarlet Runner's debut and STO win at 10/1. She made her debut on May 26th which is unusually early for the stable. His last runners in May had been back in 2002 so a good question was why she was running so early. She ran a solid debut being close up for a long way before fading in a peculiar event where the runner-up never won and Sander Camillo only got to fourth late. The stable didn't have another runner for two weeks when normally he starts with a batch at the same time (6 in a week in that 2002 May period for example). This suggested she had been a natural 2yo and a 'sighter' for the stable. When she ran below expectations he probably backed off and gave his string another two weeks to improve fitness. If you could have known she was a Group class 2yo then her SP of 10/1 when winning at Windsor from a great draw on her second run was very generous.

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    The previous sections have used the phrase 'Positive SP' and the 2006 guidelines suggested 10/1 or less as a reasonable indicator of 'positive'. This figure came from the 2005 data which showed thirteen of his 2yos with debut SPs of 10/1 or less. The thirteen included 7 of his 12 winners and two others that showed 70+ placed form (i.e. good enough to win many maidens). However, the other winners ranged from 12/1 to 40/1 debut prices. The runners that started at 12/1 to 20/1 were a mix of types - winners, placers and also moderate athletes. Those at longer SPs had a greater proportions of moderate types and anything at 33/1 or more a very likely indicator of a poor type - leaving aside that startling 40/1 debut winner.

    In Appendix B of this document is the list of all Mr Dunlop's debuts in 2006 ordered by Starting Price (shortest first) rather than rating. The same colour coding is used as with the rating ordered list. Again, open a COPY of the Appendix in a new window will aid review of the data with the text follows. The list shows less colour banding than in 2005 and in particular less clustering of the winners below 10/1. There is a general split between winners and better types usually at 20/1 or less and garbage at 25/1+ but still with odd exceptions. In this light we need to reconsider what a 'Positive' SP can mean.

    There are at several factors we should bear in mind :-

• He often runs two horses in the same maiden - the one which appears not to be the first string often starts at a longer SP than it ought to. The market knows that he doesn't target debut wins so his FTO SPs are rarely at short SPs (only 7 of 48 at less than 10/1 in 2006). If the indication is that one runner isn't even expected to beat the other then the price can drift. The 40/1 debut winner in 2005 was an interesting example because he only had one runner in the race. However, she was the second string for a major owner whose retained jockey rode another filly.
• His debuts exclusively in maiden races and the majority at major courses - Newmarket, Newbury and Goodwood. His runners are often in large fields of maidens with plenty of other 2yos with solid potential from the 'right' connections. This can lead to even his better quality runners starting in double figures. When he debuts runners at courses such as Lingfield, Nottingham, Warwick & Salisbury they can be at shorter odds simply because of weaker fields with less potential in them. These runners are often, but not always, of lesser ability.
• Early in the period when he first starts running his 2yos the SPs can be variable - because the way he trains means that he isn't sure how they will compete until the first batch have run.

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    A number of other factors were considered to see whether they could improve the system for 2007. For example, does the date of debut have any predictive value? Many trainers specifically identify their most likely 2yo winners and these will make up the bulk of the early debuts - R. Charlton is a good example and his first 7 runners in 2007 included 5 of his 7 winners and two who placed more than once without progressing. Mr Dunlop does not appear to do this and his batches of debuts will include all types - winners, placers and moderate 2yos.

    There also appears little to be gained from trying to draw conclusions from where his 2yos make their debuts. His method seems to be to debut them when they are ready and usually at a small set of major tracks. The small number that debuted at lesser courses included dual winner Spanish Hidalgo, good maiden winner Sacre Couer (who missed her intended Sandown FTO run and ran at Windsor a month later) and the once placed Turkus Quercus. In line with his plans to have his 2yos showing their peak STO the range of courses used for that run is much wider with runners targeted at appropriate maidens for thier ability. A strong point to note is that there is no evidence he runs better class 2yos at Goodwood (his closest major course) on debut and they are more likely to go to Newbury or Newmarket.

    One major conclusion is that in 2007 we need to back every one of his debuts for owner Hamdan Al Maktoum. He may not target debut wins but he does get them with his better types and they are often at good SPs. He trains mostly owner breds for Hamdan but they include runners out of his better broodmares and usually some above average ones. In recent seasons they have often been pre-trained in Dubai and Mr Dunlop has less knowledge of their abilities before they run. This may be part of the reason that the better ones start at longer SPs when they win.

    Consider that in 2006 he had three debut winners out of 48 juveniles, all for Hamdan and at SPs of 16/1 (twice) & 9/1. He trained 15 for this owner so the profit in backing every runner is clear. It can be improved because the three debuts wins were with 3 of the first 4 debuts for the owner and the latest debuts were mostly ability free. In 2005 he had 6 debut wins from 54 runners and 5 of those were for Hamdan at 40/1, 16/1, 8/1, 5/1 & 9/2. In 2004 he had a poor group of 2yos and no debut wins at all - the lack of a Hamdan winner was probably an early indicator of this. In 2002-3 he had 10 debuts wins with 6 for Hamdan and a profit overall if you ignored the batch of later season debuts.

    The other general conclusion is that the guidelines from 2006, as amended for the the lower average [Est] ratings, can be used in 2007 as the basis to classify each of his debut runners straight after the race. Factoring in video reviews of the performance and paddock review (when available) should allow a good estimation of the expected performance level on the second run and for overall ability. B2yoR analysis published on the site throught he season will highlight this type of analysis, not only for Mr Dunlop but also for other major trainers. The interplay of different trainer's methods in dissecting a maiden race result can be very useful to identify the real ability levels of the runners involved.

[Postscript - having carried out this analysis it is often useful to go back to previous seasons to see whether the patterns show up in the past. Opening a page at random from the 2000 season gave the 'EBF Newbury Maiden' over 7f on July 16th as an example. Mr Dunlop ran two in the race with STO runner Smyslov at 13/2 and newcomer Aquarius (well related as half brother to Sadian, Invincible Spirit, etc) at 11/4f and backed from 4/1. Smyslov ran 4th and easily outpaced by runners with average profiles. Since he was at his STO peak and couldn't win we would conclude that he wasn't up to winning an average maiden (he had finished an uncompetitive 8th FTO). He was beaten as 100/30 favourite next time out and won on his fourth run (as 1/3fav) having been sent up to Hamilton for a content free affair. He couldn't compete off a rating in the 80s in his first nursery. Aquarius finished 5th having shown some inexperience but going forward at the finish and had a clear positive on SP. We would conclude he was the real thing and expect him to be able to win an open maiden. He didn't run again at 2yo but won his maiden first up at 3yo before proving a useful type rating around 100.

    With these two 'pegs' in place to judge the form and knowing a similar amount about the trainer of the debut winner of that race (G.B. Balding, now retired) and the third (S. Dow, whose recent approach with 2yos might kindly be described as enigmatic) it was relatively easy to judge the ability of the other runners in that race and their futures.]

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