1. How many First Time Out (FTO) race winners were there in each season?
2. How does time of season affect FTO race win percentages?
3. How does race distance affect FTO race win Percentages?
4. What is the overall distribution of wins to run number?
5. What is the percentage of wins to runs for each run number?
6. What is the distribution of wins to run number for Maiden Races?
7. What finishing position had STO/3TO first time winners achieved in their previous run?
8. What percentage of winners achieve a 70+ performance rating?
9. What standard of performance is needed to win the average maiden at each course?

• 15-19% of 2yo races during the turf season are won by runners making their debuts.
• Around 6% of runners won on their debuts.

On average during the whole season 15-18% of races are won by runners making their debut. The following table and graph shows how the percentage of races won by first time out runners varies with month during the 2yo season.
 

Season	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
2002	5  (71%)	13  (35%)	23  (28%)	19  (15%)	29  (16%)	25  (14%)	19  (12%)	13  (9%)	1  (9%)
2003	9  (75%)	17  (35%)	29  (28%)	25  (15%)	26  (16%)	22  (14%)	21  (12%)	19  (12%)	1  (3%)
2004	10  (100%)	17  (38%)	34  (37%)	36  (28%)	35  (19%)	14   (8%)	16  (8%)	20  (14%)	2  (12%)
2005	7  (78%)	14  (29%)	29  (33%)	30  (24%)	27  (15%)	26  (14%)	23  (12%)	15  (10%)	2  (12%)
2006	5  (71%)	20  (51%)	25  (31%)	27  (22%)	29  (17%)	22  (11%)	28  (15%)	23  (16%)	1  (6%)

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On average during the whole season 15-18% of races are won by runners making their debut. The following table and graph shows how the percentage of races won by first time out runners varies with race distance for the 2yo season.
 

Season	5f - 5.5f	5.6f - 6.5f	6.6f - 7.5f	7.6f - 8.5f	> 8.6f
2002	15.7%	18.2%	15.4%	8.9%	0%
2003	18.5%	16.9%	17.1%	13.6%	12.5%
2004	24.6%	19.2%	16.9%	7.3%	0%
2005	16.7%	21.2%	14.5%	16.1%	0%
2006	21.9%	18.2%	19.3%	12.9%	5.6%

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The table below shows the number of races in the season that were won by 2yos on a particular outing. In 2006 there were 960 races and 180 were won by runners on their debut (FTO) for example.
 

Season	FTO	STO	3TO	4TO	5TO	6TO	7TO	8TO	9TO	10TO	11TO	12TO+
2002	147 (16%)	273 (29%)	192 (20%)	115 (12%)	76    (8%)	64    (7%)	28    (3%)	21    (2%)	8      (1%)	7	5	6
2003	169 (17%)	269 (27%)	213 (21%)	125 (13%)	90    (9%)	44    (4%)	22    (2%)	23    (2%)	13    (1%)	14	4	10
2004	184 (18%)	272 (27%)	190 (19%)	140 (14%)	74    (7%)	52    (5%)	34    (3%)	20    (2%)	19    (2%)	7	3	3
2005	173 (17%)	270 (27%)	193 (19%)	137 (14%)	83   (8%)	64   (6%)	37   (4%)	20    (2%)	7     (1%)	9	4	3
2006	180 (19%)	267 (28%)	175 (18%)	130 (14%)	73   (8%)	52   (5%)	44   (5%)	19    (2%)	4	6	6	5

Note two main points from the table and the graph:-

• The high percentage of races won by F-3TO runners. Around 65% of all races fall to F-3TO winners. Note that there are around 130 Nursery races each season so that the same group win around 75% of non-handicap races. More than 50% of non-handicaps are won by runners on either their first or second run.
• Note how consistent the pattern is across the four seasons. This suggests that it is worth investigating further the reasons for the STO 'peak' and the high percentage of 'early run' winners.

The previous section dealt with the number of races that were won by runners on a particular outing in their 2yo career. This section covers the number of wins by run number across all outings by 2yos in the season.
 

		2003 Season				2004 Season				2005 Season
	Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %		Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %		Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %
FTO	2647	169	6.4%	FTO	2912	184	6.3%	FTO	2904	173	6.0%
STO	2167	269	12.4%	STO	2362	272	11.5%	STO	2356	270	11.5%
3TO	1640	213	13%	3TO	1821	190	10.4%	3TO	1834	193	10.5%
4TO	1083	126	11.6%	4TO	1258	140	11.1%	4TO	1199	137	11.4%
5TO	766	90	11.7%	5TO	809	74	9.1%	5TO	801	83	10.4%
6TO	504	44	8.7%	6TO	548	52	9.5%	6TO	562	64	11.4%
7TO	352	22	6.3%	7TO	347	34	9.8%	7TO	359	37	10.3%
8TO	233	23	9.9%	8TO	217	20	9.2%	8TO	218	20	9.2%
9TO	153	13	8.5%	9TO	128	19	14.8%	9TO	148	7	4.7%
10TO	104	14	13.5%	10TO	80	7	8.8%	10TO	95	9	9.5%
11TO	73	4	5.5%	11TO	42	3	7.1%	11TO	62	4	6.4%
12TO	47	6	12.8%	12TO	22	1	4.5%	12TO	30	2	6.7%
13TO	25	3	12%	13TO	14	1	7.1%	13TO	15	0	0%
14TO	18	1	5.6%	14TO	3	0	0%	14TO	9	1	11.1%
	9,812 runs		Ave = 10%		10,567 runs		Ave = 9.4%		10,601 runs		Ave = 9.4%

 

		2006 Season				2007 Season
	Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %		Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %
FTO	2696	180	6.7%	FTO
STO	2166	267	12.3%	STO
3TO	1617	175	10.8%	3TO
4TO	1032	130	12.6%	4TO
5TO	689	73	10.6%	5TO
6TO	473	52	11.0%	6TO
7TO	323	44	13.6%	7TO
8TO	195	19	9.7%	8TO
9TO	116	4	3.4%	9TO
10TO	65	6	9.2%	10TO
11TO	39	6	15.4%	11TO
12TO	25	3	12.0%	12TO
13TO	15	1	6.7%	13TO
14TO	8	0	0%	14TO
	9,466runs		Ave = 10.1%

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Maiden races which are won by runners after a high number of previous starts are usually at lesser courses and require moderate winning performances. The three wins by runners on their tenth, or later, start in 2005 were at Catterick, Nottingham & Wolverhampton and rated only 63, 61 & 55. In 2006 the two wins were at Catterick & Bath rating 56 and 62.

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The table covers all horses who had their first win on either their second or third run, i.e. previous winners who won again on their second and/or third run are not included.

Season	S-3TO FT winners	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth	Sixth	Seventh+
2002	365	97   (27%)	75  (21%)	70  (19%)	33   (9%)	30  (8%)	60  (16%)
2003	375	96   (26%)	85  (23%)	48  (13%)	37  (10%)	31   (8%)	78  (21%)
2004	375	101  (27%)	63  (17%)	60  (16%)	43  (12%)	36  (10%)	72  (19%)
2005	396	100  (25%)	72  (18%)	60  (15%)	44  (11%)	38  (10%)	82  (21%)
2006	363	99  (27%)	59  (16%)	60  (17%)	37  (10%)	23  (6%)	85  (23%)

The following table splits the totals for finishing position on previous run for first time winners on second outings (STO) and third time out.
 

Second TO Winners	Total First time winners	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth	Sixth	Seventh+
2002	234	59  (25%)	45  (19%)	42  (18%)	24  (10%)	23  (10%)	41  (18%)
2003	232	50  (22%)	51  (22%)	30  (13%)	26  (11%)	19   (8%)	56  (24%)
2004	234	64  (27%)	39  (17%)	32  (14%)	31  (13%)	23  (10%)	45  (19%)
2005	247	56  (23%)	41  (17%)	38  (15%)	31  (13%)	27  (11%)	54  (22%)
2006	236	56  (24%)	35  (15%)	38  (16%)	22  (9%)	18  (8%)	67  (28%)
Third TO Winners	Total First Time winners	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth	Sixth	Seventh+
2002	131	38  (29%)	30  (23%)	28  (21%)	9  (7%)	7  (5%)	19  (15%)
2003	143	46  (32%)	34  (24%)	18  (13%)	11 (8%)	12  (8%)	22  (15%)
2004	141	37  (26%)	24  (17%)	28  (20%)	12  (9%)	13  (9%)	27  (19%)
2005	149	44  (30%)	31  (21%)	22  (15%)	13  (9%)	11  (7%)	28  (19%)
2006	127	43  (34%)	24  (19%)	22  (17%)	15  (12%)	5  (4%)	18  (14%)

Note from the table that, as would be expected, first time 3TO winners are more likely to have made the first four on their last outing that first time STO winners. Typically just over 50% of first time 3TO winners will have placed second or third on their previous outing.

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The tables below cover the 2005-6 seasons and use the B2yoR ratings which are assigned during the season.
 

Season	Total Races	Number of Winners rated 80+	Number of Winners rated 70+	Number of Winners rated 60+	Number of Winners rated 50+
2005	998	129  (12.9%)	457  (45.8%)	806  (80.1%)	936  (93.8%)
2006	960	67  (7.0%)	260  (27.1%)	604  (62.9%)	874  (91.0%)

 

2005 Season Race Type	Total Races	Number of Winners rated 80+	Number of Winners rated 70+	Number of Winners rated 60+
Group/Listed	62	57  (92%)	62  (100%)	-
Conditions	44	16  (36.4%)	39  (88.6%)	44  (100%)
Novice	64	12  (18.8%)	45  (70.3%)	62  (97%)
Maidens	478	32  (6.7%)	219  (45.8%)	436  (91.2%)
Auctions	137	1  (0.7%)	25  (18.2%)	86  (62.8%)
Claimer/Seller	80	0	1  (1.3%)	7  (8.8%)

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The tables below cover the 2005-6 seasons and use the B2yoR ratings which are assigned during the season.
 

Season	Maiden Races	Average Rating for Winner
2005	478	68.5
2006	458	63.1

2005 Season	Number of	Average Rating		Course Ranked	Average Rating
Course	Maiden Races	for Winner		by Average Rating	for Winner 2005	2006 Average
AYR	11	67.5		NEWMARKET JULY	73.5	65.3
BATH	18	67.7		YORK	73.4	71.8
BRIGHTON	11	65.5		DONCASTER	73.3	N/A
BEVERLEY	9	67.4		GOODWOOD	71.9	68.1
CARLISLE	8	66.4		NEWBURY	71.6	67.9
CATTERICK	9	64.0		WINDSOR	71.2	63.1
CHEPSTOW	7	67.6		CHESTER	70.8	69.6
CHESTER	5	70.8		EPSOM	70.8	66.3
DONCASTER	11	73.3		RIPON	70.8	62.9
EDINBURGH	10	61.8		LINGFIELD	70.4	64.0
EPSOM	9	70.8		NEWMARKET ROWLEY	70.4	66.6
FOLKESTONE	13	68.2		HAYDOCK	70.3	61.3
GOODWOOD	14	71.9		SALISBURY	70.2	66.3
HAMILTON	11	69.4		PONTEFRACT	70.1	59.5
HAYDOCK	16	70.3		KEMPTON	69.7	62.6
KEMPTON	3	69.7		SANDOWN	69.6	64.4
LEICESTER	21	67.5		HAMILTON	69.4	61.7
LINGFIELD	8	70.4		FOLKESTONE	68.2	61.6
LINGFIELD (AW)	26	67.0		BATH	67.7	61.7
NEWCASTLE	13	67.5		THIRSK	67.7	60.5
NEWMARKET JULY	24	73.5		CHEPSTOW	67.6	63.0
NEWMARKET ROWLEY	21	70.4		AYR	67.5	59.2
NOTTINGHAM	27	65.4		LEICESTER	67.5	65.1
NEWBURY	25	71.6		NEWCASTLE	67.5	60.6
PONTEFRACT	11	70.1		BEVERLEY	67.4	67.6
REDCAR	14	66.7		LINGFIELD (AW)	67.0	62.2
RIPON	8	70.8		REDCAR	66.7	63.1
SALISBURY	13	70.2		CARLISLE	66.4	59.8
SANDOWN	12	69.6		YARMOUTH	66.4	60.9
SOUTHWELL (AW)	7	59.4		BRIGHTON	65.5	59.5
THIRSK	12	67.7		NOTTINGHAM	65.4	62.5
WARWICK	10	63.8		WOLVERHAMPTON	64.7	61.3
WINDSOR	22	71.2		CATTERICK	64.0	60.9
WOLVERHAMPTON	14	64.7		WARWICK	63.8	59.2
YARMOUTH	16	66.4		EDINBURGH	61.8	55.0
YORK	9	73.4		SOUTHWELL	59.4	57.3
				ASCOT	N/A	69.7

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