British 2yo Racing - 2005 Season Race Report

BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Race Report

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003: Musselburgh, March 27th : 5f (5) Maiden

RACE SUMMARY

The following table gives the ratings given to the actual race performances ('Estimate') compared to the Profile ratings assigned before the race. A green cell indicates a runner that performed well above pre-race profile and in pink a runner that notably underperformed. In either case it is useful to identify a reason for the difference.


	Wovoka	Soto	Amber Glory	Dusty City	Kung Hei	City For Conquest	Frogmill Prince	Woodwee	Rothesay Dancer	Seallarain
[Estimate] Post Race	61	54	51	47	46	37	40	33	28	0
Pre-race Profile	50	50	58	57	64	63	52	30	18	32

Wovoka attracted some support at a steady 4/1. This was the trainer's second runner and performed entirely differently to his first runner who looked clueless. This runner was very professional, broke well, travelled well in second pressing the leader and went on as the leader faded. On TV evidence looked to be a mature type with some range, notably better than the underpowered and gawky Evanesce to which the profile compared him to. This maturity and professionalism enabled him to perform above expectations by around 10lbs. Another plus for his sire's very good record with 2yos.

Soto was a 'surprise' second at 33/1 and was the trainer's second string by SP and jockeys. However, trainer's debut runners tend to be competent and not progress and its likely he ran to expectations on debut and another hint that the overall form is moderate.

Amber Glory drifted from 3/1 to 11/2. On brief TV evidence she looked to have some build to develop from this run. She was switched to the outside to challenge and probably would have run closer to the pre-race profile without this. A trainer debut run rating over 50 is usually indicative of a runner with the ability to develop into a winner during the season.

Dusty City was steady around 8/1. He was close enough and had a clear run but finished the wrong side of the three length 'garbage gap' in a volunteer fourth. Another poor debut run by the trainer at this course and more notably another uncompetitive run by his 2yos this season. Is he not getting them as ready on debut as he used to or is he saving his better 2yos (if he has them) for something else, like Doncaster?

Kung Hei was the notable disappointment as 11/4f and performed below his rating at Lingfield eight days ago. His trainer had said he would not run if the ground was softer than GS so perhaps the ground was a slight factor in his underperformance. However, worth noting the stables very good 3TO record and this partly caused by runner's rating to a lower level STO with a break less than 14 days, as this one had. Add to that he's small and limited and it was obvious even on TV with the bigger and rangier Wovoka was 'coasting' along next to him that he's not that good.

City For Conquest was the trainer's first runner of the season and was steady around 8/1 although finished 7/1. She looked a neat type on TV pictures but not notable strong. She travelled OK in the first part of the race and was showing some response for pressure when getting slightly cut-off on the rail. She probably wouldn't have reached the first three though. Performed below expectations partly because of the bump but also probably because she isn't as good as the runners the trainer has had in the race previously.

Frogmill Prince had the stable first jockey on and had some mild each-way support from 25/1 to 16/1. Trainer's debuts are normally competent but this one lost ground at the start and never got into the race.

Woodwee performed to expectations but showed a little more zip than expected but probably ran to within 10lbs of his best on debut.

Rothesay Dancer slightly exceeded expectations and it was a good run in the context of the performance of the dam's previous foals. However, probable that there will be little improvement.

Seallarain produced a fairly typical early season debut for the trainer and was very inexperienced. She underperformed against a low expectation but some of the trainer's early runners will always throw in a clunker. A relatively short price at 12/1 from 14/1.

FUTURE RELEVANCE

In summary a low level of form and not a race that should have a lot of future winners in. The main interest centres on how good the winner can be and it is a good sign that he could win on debut for his trainer. Previous early season debut winners in the north between 2002-4 have been for Sheikh Mohammed (Machynleth and Straw Poll) and have been 75ish types.

Overall, the only other runner of real interest would seem to be Amber Glory who on profile should be able to improve with time and rate around 70.

Kung Hei seems exposed as the 60ish type he appeared on debut and more important is to note the low quality of the Lingfield conditions race on March 19th.

In a moderate race it was difficult to raise any enthusiasm for the others on what they showed. Although there will be plenty of other moderate races for them to have a go in.