British 2yo Racing - 2005 Season Race Report

BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Race Report

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004: Warwick, March 28th : 5f (5) Maiden Fillies'

RACE SUMMARY

The race looked to be of low quality before the race and it appeared to match expectations. Sticky ground and a ragged race combined to produce an unexpected final result although the performances of most runners were close to that expected. The main feature of the race was a strong pace with four runners clear of the rest before the field crossed the intersection with the round course. The first three of these pacesetters completely folded before the last furlong and fell away. Several of the weaker runners who were completely outpaced off the early pace came into the race as the pacemakers fell away. This would not happen in a true 5f 'speed' race on quicker ground and the weaker runners were able to get into the race by plugging on at their own pace. The race was run in a slow time.

It is always questionable to make excuses for beaten horses and most race results pretty accurately reflect the relative merits of the maiden runners in them In this race however, it's probably that one or two of those that finished well behind are actually better than, at least, the third runner home.

The following table gives the ratings given to the actual race performances ('Estimate') compared to the Profile ratings assigned before the race. Boxes in green indicate a runner that over-performed in the race against the pre-race profile and in pink one that notably under-performed.


	Sounds Simla	Dune Melody	Stephanies Dream	Local Fancy	Lindus Atenor	Queens Bounty	Lake Hero	Baysgarth Park	Mini Blue
[Estimate] Post Race	50	52	44	40	35	27	28	10	0
Pre-race Profile	44	34	8	25	56	54	42	30	36

Sounds Simla was the first runner of the season for a trainer who has varied his approach to 2yos 2002-4 and this was a notably early debut. The early run raised the question of why he was running this one in March, i.e. shown natural ability at home or so poor it needs to run early. The debut win, travelling comfortably far enough off the too strong pace to keep on under a 5lb apprentice might suggest 'natural ability'. However there are mixed messages because she was 16/1 and her trainer had also entered her for the AW seller at Wolverhampton in 5 days time. This doesn't suggest he thought a great deal of her and he was probably slightly surprised by how 'little' was needed to win this race. In summary, in a slow and ragged race, she probably only had to perform to around profile to win.

Dune Melody was backed from 10/1 to 13/2 late on in a race in which a number of runners shortened as the two favourites drifted. She was outpaced behind the too quick pace (a good thing in the circumstances) and kept on best of those adrift at halfway to chase the winner. Performed above profile and a relatively good debut by trainer standards (he has now had two solid debut runs in 2005). Likely to improve further and should develop to 60+ on this performance. Her First season sire had the second and the last in the race.

Stephanies Dream was cheap at the sales and has a non 5f pedigree but this was such a slow race it wasn't a 5f test. Performed better than expected but wouldn't expect any particular improvement. Was outpaced and well off the too quick pace and was plugging on in her own time for a volunteer third.

Local Fancy was 8/1 on debut for a trainer who has his runners competent and fit FTO. Ran to a low level of form within general expectations. Outpaced and well behind the too quick pace at halfway and plugged on third best of those that missed the pace.

Lindus Atenor drifted from 11/4 to 7/2jf. She broke well and sat third around 1-2 lengths off the pair who went to quick and in front of the winner. She made an effort in the straight and made a little progress before fading in the last furlong. Ran a similar race to the trainer's other runner this season. Worth at least seeing what she can do next time with a normal pace on better ground when she's readier.

Queens Bounty pressed the quick pace and faded with the other pacemakers before the last furlong. Went in from 5/1 to 4/1 and trainer's usual apprentice jockey rode here although he had entries at other courses. The trainer has had a poor start to the season with none of his runners competitive so far. Worth at least seeing what she can do next time with a normal pace on better ground.

Lake Hero opened favourite but drifted to 7/2jf. She broke well and set a too fast pace which saw all three pacesetters fall away before the last furlong and had the first four clear at halfway. A trainer debut that rates below 50 is usually a sign that they wont be competitive for a win later. However given the pacesetting and ragged race result it is probably worth seeing what she can do second time out in different circumstances.

Mini Blue received some mild each-way support from 12/1 to 7/1 late. Outpaced and adrift and probably eased. The trainer has had three poor seasons with 2yos and this was a bad way to start 2005.

FUTURE RELEVANCE

Almost certainly poor form in the low 50s and the majority of runners will struggle to win and rate anywhere near 70.

Dune Melody is of some interest and the trainer, who is used to working with low level races, should find a small race for her.

Of the others nothing stands out as being of interest although it would be sensible to at least review the performances of the three pacemakers next time out. These three (Lake Hero, Queens Bounty and Lindus Atenor) were the shortest prices in the market and two of the better runners by profile.