British 2yo Racing - 2005 Season Race Report

BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Race Report

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009: Folkestone, March 30th : 5f (5) Maiden

RACE SUMMARY

Race run on soft ground and more than 6 seconds above standard and not a true 5f speed test.

The following tables gives the ratings given to the actual race performances ('Estimate') compared to the Profile ratings assigned before the race. Boxes in green indicate a runner that over-performed in the race against the pre-race profile and in pink one that notably under-performed.


	Salute Him	Lyrical Blues	Red Emerald	Grimes Faith	Mine The Balance	Magidene
[Estimate] Post Race	66	65	51	41	40	25
Pre-race Profile	63	65	57	57	52	60

Salute Him ran for owner Jaber Abdullah who counts as one of the trainer's 'specific important' owners for whom he targets stronger than average debuts (this was missed in profile). Each season the trainer has passed on the best of the cheapest buys to this owner (Majestic Desert in 2003, Arabian Dancer in 2004 for example) and presumably they had been identified as better types well before they ran (although they would not be 'wound up' on debut.
This runner started a solid favourite suggesting a better type and run was expected. In 2005 both of the trainer's debut winners have shown some market support although the effect is quite subtle and the vibes can be difficult to pick up. This is because his runners tend to start at shortish prices on debut anyway because of his 'important 2yo trainer' status. But compare this one to the vibes surrounding the debut of the more expensive Rundear on the previous day.
The other point to note is that both debut winner in 2005 have been professional on debut and have pressed the pacemaker before taking over when the front runner faded. The other debuts have been in a variety of positions including off the back.
Although this was a slow race and not a true 5f test it is still s good sign that this runner could win this early over 5f rating up to expectations. He looked a 7f development type on sales review and would expect this runner to develop to an 80+ rating at least.

Lyrical Blues' trainer has had his 2yos very ready and forward in 2005 and has a better group than in 2004. In a slow race on soft this one showed slight inexperience but ran to around expectations in second. On sales review he should be able to rate just over 70. Interesting to see how much the trainer's 2yos improve STO given their readiness on debut in 2005.

Red Emerald was 11/2 joint third favourite and probably ran close to what she is. Trainer will tend to run these fillies often in the season so their relative fitness against other runners can gain minor wins but unlikely to rate 70+ on this evidence.

Grimes Faith was 11/2 joint third favourite and led for 3f before a typical fade (and possible ease by R Hughes) Similar run to Godfrey Street but with less good result. Trainer's debut runners seem to be slightly behind normal on limited evidence so far or possible has not run a better type yet. A minor 60s rated type on this run.

Magidene was 11/2 joint third favourite and the first string of his trainer's two runners. Lost some ground at the start (as did his trainer's other runner) in a slow race on soft but recovered to be in touch before a solid fade later in the race. Trainer had his early runners in 2004 ready to compete to their best in 2004 but some minor excuses for this one. On sales review, trainer approach and early debut he is worth another chance to show better form, probably at Lingfield.

Mine The Balance was 16/1 outside and trainer second string. Ran roughly to expectations in a slow race although lost some ground at the start.

FUTURE RELEVANCE

Both Salute Him and Lyrical Blues should be able to rate 70+ and Salute Him should be able to develop to 80+ at least.

Red Emerald and Grimes Faith do not look 70+ types on the evidence and minor 60s winners at best helped by their early debuts.

Magidene is worth another chance to prove to be the early 70ish rated winner he had the prospects to be on sales review.