RACE SUMMARY
 

Positions 1st to 10th

	P. Whisper	Danjet	Stephanies Dream	River Kintyre	Merchant Bankes	The London Gang	Don Peter	William John	Tick The Box	Noble Edge
[Estimate] Post Race	81	69	60	61	55	56	55	51	53	50
Pre-race Profile	68	67	44	77	60	66	63	51	56	20

Positions 11 to 18th

	Curtail	Celeritas	Make My Dream	Little Elver	Bowland Boy	Most Famous	Boumsong	Royal Embrace	Pertemps Heroine
[Estimate] Post Race	49	48	48	31	33	23	21	13	WD
Pre-race Profile	74	54	48	45	45	40	47	45	41

Phantom Whisper - What an irritating yet loveable broodmare La Belle Vie is! She has now visited the sire Makbul to produce each of her last four foals. In April 2001 I stood in the rain at Nottingham and watched the first of these four (Maktavish) win on his 2yo debut by 8 lengths at 7/1. In 2003 it was Warwick and the second (La Vie Est Belle) finished 6th on debut and looked moderate but then developed through the season to get a rating of OR78. In 2004 it was standing at Windsor while the unconsidered Happy Event won on debut at 20/1 and developed to an OR86 mark. The fourth of those foals is this one, seen at the sales and a poor specimen and the sales price showed that no-one else liked the look of him either. So, you stand at Lingfield in March 2005 and what happens, he wins on debut comfortably at 8/1. Ok, you think, so that wasn't much of a race and he was the best of the group. Instead, he improves further and wins this comfortably under a penalty, not quite in the Maktavish rating level but better than the other two at the same stage of the season.
There's two points to ponder here, firstly you have to be very careful when assessing the offspring of this dam because they always surprise (and this goes for the sire to some extent as well). The second is that we need to get a syndicate together, we're going to go to the Doncaster St Leger sales and buy the next yearling from La Belle Vie. We aren't going to care if it's four foot tall and one leg is on sideways, that'll make it cheap (like the other yearlings listed above). Then we send it to R Millman and wait for the winner's cheque to arrive and a big punt on it's debut run. Are you in?
The race lacked the quality runners of recent years but this was still a good performance from him and the way he was keeping on at the end suggested he can improve further at 6f. He again drifted in the market to 9/2 third favourite and difficult to know whether this was because the trainer knows he has limitations or because the connections do not bet.

Danjet was allowed to use her natural speed from the start for the first time and was clear on her part of the track. She kept on well and improved her rating a little. She can probably rate 70+ and would be competitive in races such as the Lily Agnes, Hilary Needler and the National Stakes depending upon those race's quality. Given the trainer's methods and the fact she's run three times already she might well run in all three of those races and place in two of them. She'd be difficult to catch if she got stall 1 at Chester in the Lily Agnes for example.

Stephanies Dream attracted some support on debut but didn't get into that race which had a strong pace and kept on for third there. She travelled closer here and again kept on solidly in the last furlong. The owners (Brooklands Racing) run partnerships targeted at 2yo racing with cheap sales purchases. They normally have their horses ready early and the best one is usually chosen for this race. They had the third in 2003 with Bella Tutrice (with a different owner). Her pedigree suggests she needs further than 5f and her run style so far seems to confirm this. Probably seen pretty much what she is capable of and probably rate in the 60s at best but can improve a little for 6f.

River Kintyre was weak in the market at 12/1 and some very mild each-way support to get to 10/1 which suggested the trainer would be happy with a solid run on debut but did not expect to win. He got a slightly slow break and had to be driven at times to pick up. He was taken over to the far rail after halfway which may not have been the best ground (although the subject of draw bias here in April is a tricky one). He did run a creditable debut but without ever showing the zip and readiness to suggest he's superior. The trainer has run two in this race in 2001 and 2003 and those two finished third and second before winning comfortably STO. Neither of those two won again in the season although both got OR figures above 80. On the evidence of this run a similar progression for this one would be expected as a minimum.

Merchant Bankes ran as expected in 5th at 20/1. The price suggesting the trainer did not think he was above average although he usually runs his best (or close to) 2yo in this race. The SP probably also reflected the poor start to the season by the trainer and the fact that people are realising he hasn't had his 2yos 'wound up' on debut for some time. The first 6 or so home in this race can usually win and early season maiden rating at least around 65-70 and he did enough to suggest that is likely without promising anything better.

The London Gang was the trainer's second string on jockeys but attracted support and went off 7/2jf with the trainer's other runner. He had looked small and limited to 60s rating on paddock review and lacking scope to develop. Seemed to have every chance here and ran stands' side. Faded as the better horses went away in the last furlong. Looks limited to 60s rating and probably need to win early to mid season.

Don Peter was an unusual early debut for his trainer who has changed his approach with 2yos again in 2005 (back to his 2002 model). Attracted some mild each-way support from 20/1 to 14/1. Ran an acceptable race in 6th with some progress after halfway before stalling in the last furlong. Ran slightly below expectations but has ok prospects to rate just over 70+ on this run.

William John ran to expectations in 7th for a trainer who had his 2004 debut runners 10lbs or more below their final rating. Should be able to progress to 65+ rating, at least, from this.

Tick The Box ran only 5 days after debut and slightly baffling what the plan is with him. Was giving a strong, attacking ride and led the stands' side group for as long as he could before fading to the expected rating level. Previous comments still apply and presume he will now be given a break to develop.

Noble Edge had one of the lowest profile ratings but exceeded this by finishing in midfield at 100/1. He achieved a rating on debut the equivalent of the best of the previous four foals from the dam. Was he very ready on debut or does he have a hint of 60+ rating about him?

Curtail was a disappointment he opened at 22/1 and went to 25/1 before persistence each-way support down to 10/1 joint 4th favourite. He was driven along to keep up in midfield on the stands' side before fading. On profile he had the potential to be one of the better runners in the field and the each-way support is interesting. He was the first 2yo runner for his trainer. Mixed signals but the lack of zip and the fade were not good signs. The trainer's father had 65-75 rating horses finish unplaced in this race but better types used to show more ability on debut even if not winning. Ran in changed colours.

Pertemps Heroine was being walked to post by the jockey (probably dropped him) and got loose from him and did a circuit of the course backwards then let herself get caught. She was withdrawn.

Most Famous dropped her jockey on the way to post but kept with the other horses and was soon caught.

FUTURE RELEVANCE

The race result was close to expectations other than the better run by Phantom Whisper and the lack of readiness and/or zip by the runners with better profiles. The first 7 should include mostly early season winners and River Kintyre suggested he can rate 80+.