BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Race Report
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016: Yarmouth, April 4th : 5.2f (5) Maiden

RACE SUMMARY
 

  • Another race in the start to the season lacking strong debuts from runners with better future prospects. The first three home were the lowest rated on profile and the first two were outsiders at 14/1 & 16/1. The first four were all on debut but with moderate runs from Tafilah and Rundear those with previous experience set a poor standard.
  • The runners which set and pressed the pace on the rail (Mr Rooney & Rundear) both faded notably. Lord Jack Flash (5lb apprentice) did best of those close to the pace (tracking in third) and went clear with Bel Cantor who had been behind and made progress from halfway. The interesting point to note is that Bel Cantor ran widest out from the rail and Lord Jack Flash was on the outside of the leading group. This pair drifted widest in the last furlong+ and were closer to the far rail at the finish. With the limited evidence this season there appears to be an advantage in racing off the rail in the wetter ground seen so far at the course.
  • The race was run in a slow time and was around one second faster than the previous selling race where the winner carried 2lbs more than Lord Jack Flash. The race was more than 1.5 seconds faster than the race Tafilah made her debut in here on officially easier ground.
  • The following tables gives the ratings given to the actual race performances ('Estimate') compared to the Profile ratings assigned before the race. Boxes in green indicate a runner that over-performed in the race against the pre-race profile and in pink one that notably under-performed.

  •  
    Lord Jack Flash Bel Cantor Otis B Driftwood John Claude Tafilah Mr Rooney Stratham Rundear
    [Estimate] Post Race 56 53 51 51 43 48 30 23
    Pre-race
    Profile
    40 25 50 63 56 64 60 52
     

    Lord Jack Flash received a little support at 16/1 to 12/1 and settled at 14/1 6th favourite ridden by the stable's usual 5lb apprentice. On brief TV pictures looked like a version of the compact, heavy 'Petong' type sprinter with ok athleticism. Tracked the pace in third (off the rail and a probable advantage). Went on in the last one furlong as he drifted to the centre of the course and kept on reasonably well. A slow time and a modest level of form but a good debut by the trainer's standards in 2005. Trainer had his first winner two days previously. Looked to have some scope to develop.

    Bel Cantor was the 66/1 outsider. He had the advantages of missing the pace, racing towards the centre of the track and a 7lb apprentice. He made progress after halfway and went on with the winner as the pacemakers stalled on the rails. Trainer does not have his runners fully ready on debut and a solid level of debut form by his standards. Ought to be able to rate 60s on this evidence. A positive at a low level for his sire who got a (probably) similar type with Chilly Cracker in 2004 from only 4 runners.

    Otis B Driftwood runs for a trainer who is restarting after an enforced break from training. His only 2yo runner since returning was well below final form on debut (similar to his previous record). So a slight surprise to see this runner backed from 8/1 to 13/2 3rd favourite. Had the advantage of missing (not being able to follow?) the too fast pace set on the rail and plugged on for third towards the stands' rail and doing best of those on that part of the course. Probably only needed to run to profile to get third in a slow and 'upside-down' race. Would expect him to develop from this on trainer's methods.

    John Claude ran for a shrewd trainer who normally aims for STO wins with his earliest runners. Drifted from 7/2 to 11/2 and on brief TV pictures did not look fit enough to compete on debut. Ran below expectations sitting in midfield and making some progress as the leaders faded before fading in the last furlong. Probably showed what was expected by the trainer and would expect to see him targeted for a win in the right grade NTO. On the evidence here that's likely to be at Brighton with a 5lb apprentice on.

    Tafilah drifted from 11/4 to 7/2 as second favourite. Ran reasonably close to the too fast pace on the rail and faded badly in the last furlong+. The race was run in a faster time than her run here on debut on officially faster going. Another runner for the trainer who did not develop from her debut run. On trainer methods we have probably see what she is capable of and will struggle to win now.

    Mr Rooney was the trainer's first runner of the season and was supported from 5/2 to 15/8 as favourite. The trainer's 2yos which debut in April are usually capable of being winners (most at least at average level). However, only the very best win on debut so a surprise to see him as favourite and another example of the poor value many debuts for 'larger' stables are. With a mixed bag in opposition and Tafilah, Rundear and John Claude drifting the price was affected by that. [The result of the race was another lesson that the more likely result in this situation like this is a long priced winner than an M. Johnston debut win. Consider that Attraction was 5/2 second favourite on her debut and was one of the few that managed to win in April (with a 66/1 runner 3rd who would have been second if she hadn't been 'Attraction').]

    Pressed and then set a probably too quick pace on the rails (probable slight disadvantage). Even so, faded more than you would like in the last 2 furlongs. Certainly not useful+ on this assuming the trainer has his runners as ready as usual.

    Stratham was another disappointment for his new trainer. Opened 16/1 and received some support to 12/1. Slightly slow break but never got into the race and showed little. The new trainer has now run two 2yos, one for an important owner the other for his mother and both have been relatively expensive and the early debuts ought to indicate they have some ability. However both have opened at long prices before being supported and both have run poor races. Have to presume he is not getting his runners as fit as his father once did before debut but even so they have been disappointing. Need to track how these early debuts for the stable develop = problem with stable? not ready on debut? or just poor runners?

    Rundear had looked moderate on debut and never got into that race. 10/1 5th favourite and it looked like they'd decided she would at least learn something here. She was driven to lead on the rail early and encouraged to set a good pace. Lost lead before halfway and a bad fade afterwards. She'll presumably be kept busy to try to win a race but that will need to be at a lower level on the evidence so far.



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