BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Race Report
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033: Newbury, April 15th : 5f (4) Maiden

RACE SUMMARY
 

  • Race run up stands' rail strip. Rain before racing and going officially Good.
  • Race run in a moderate to average time as Caan set just a fait pace on the rail and then made an effort after 2 furlongs from home. The race turned into a furlong and a half sprint and the runners finished in a heap.
  • The race is now a Class 4 maiden and therefore above the normal quality of maiden. There were 'words' for some of the runners and presumably Johnny Alpha and Zato are capable of much better but the actual form level produced in the race was ordinary.
  • The following tables gives the ratings given to the actual race performances ('Estimate') compared to the Profile ratings assigned before the race. Boxes in green indicate a runner that over-performed in the race against the pre-race profile and in pink one that notably under-performed.

  •  
    Don't Tell Sue Johnny Alpha Ocean Pride Zato Caan
    [Estimate] Post Race 66 65 63 62 61
    Pre-race
    Profile
    63 73 55 67 60
     

    Don't Tell Sue was 6/1 3rd favourite. He was the trainer's third debut of the season and the previous two had never got into their races and been slightly disappointing. This one gave a more typical competitive early debut by the stable - so what were the differences? This race had only newcomers and the pace was moderate which put no strong pressure on any of the runners. The two previous debuts had run in races where those with previous runs had set a good pace and put other runners under strong pressure. The jockey looked better here restraining a free running type in a slow race and who had carried himself into the race. In the other two debuts he had to organise debut runners that were under pressure.

    The other notable point was how mature Don't Tell Sue looked. At the sales he had looked short, well built and mature. He has developed into a notably heavy and strong type and looked very mentally and physically mature in front. He is is still on the short side but moves well.

    He settled behind the pacemaking pair and ran quite freely and running into the back of other runners but accepted the restraint from the jockey by halfway. He did not make ground immediately as the pace quickened after 2 furlongs out but showed a good attitude and maturity to keep on in the last furlong to lead late. He probably lacks the quality to be useful+ but his relative maturity and strength will take him a long way in early season. He didn't produce a 'speed' 5f run here.

    Johnny Alpha was the trainer's third runner of the season and was chosen to run in this higher class maiden. The previous two debut runners had been less good on profile and had not started favourite. He was a strong 5/4f here.

    He wore a cross-noseband and looked mentally immature when circling at post. He broke slightly awkwardly but not a problem and settled in second tracking the leader. He travelled best in the race and had no problem increasing his pace with the leader after 2f from the finish. He was left in the lead around a furlong from home and showed some mental inexperience and signs that he did not know what was required. The jockey was not hard on him and he was headed late by a much more mature looking runner.

    Travelled well in the race although didn't really quicken. Left the impression he can do much better with mental sharpening and could cope with a faster 5f race.

    Ocean Pride was one of two trainer runners and received some support from 10/1 to 7/1 as the other stayed at 10/1. In a race lacking a strong pace he settled in last place at halfway although only two lengths off the pace. Made some progress after the race quickened from inside 2f out but although 3rd the 2nd and 4th both made ground on him in the last 1 furlong. Ran roughly to expectations in a slowish race.

    Zato was 11/4 second favourite and the trainer had been in good form with 2yos at the Newmarket meeting this week. Broke slightly slow but not a problem in a race lacking a strong pace. Travelled ok in the race until it quickened after 2f from home and was the only runner to be caught out and lost ground and had to be driven. He kept on in the last furlong and made ground back on the leaders but probably slightly outpaced in a race that was not a 'speed' 5f test. Ran roughly to expectations and no problem with being the 70+ winner he looked at the sales although probably not in a 'speed' 5f.

    Caan opened at 10/1 outsider with the other trainer runner and stayed there. The other runner received support to 7/1. Set an ordinary pace on the rail and was pressed to increase the pace after 2f from home. Lost the lead before 1 furlong out and finished last although in theory he had a good starting point for the late race 'sprint'. No signs that he is better than an early minor winner.

    [Jockey R. Hughes was interviewed before the race and did his usual 'vouchsafing the stable is in excellent heart' routine without really saying anything about the horse. The interviewer lobbed him some soft invitations to tell him how 'useful' this one was. His heart didn't quite seem to be in it but he was able to suggest that his 'fella' was tough and ok and they would have a difficult job getting past him (which they all did). More interestingly he did say that his stable's debut runners so far in 2005 had only needed their first runs on easier going and had been ok when the ground had been better.]



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