British 2yo Racing - 2005 Season Race Report

BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Race Report

<< 2005 Season Home

044: Haydock, April 23rd : 5f (5) Maiden Fillies'

RACE SUMMARY

Ground was Officially Soft but the overall times suggest the ground was slightly better than that. The stalls were placed in centre course and the field drifted over to be close to the far rail by halfway.

Oceans Apart set a solid pace and the three that ran closest to the pace finished third (Oceans Apart), fifth (Rack And Ruin) and 8th (Trans Vision). The race slightly quickened from 2f out and the 'second rank' of runners came through as a set (Skyelady, Ellcon and finally Salut D'Amour) as the leaders stalled and faded.

Overall view of the race would be that this was an 'accidental' debut win by Skyelady who only had to show a slightly better than normal trainer debut to win. Worth noting that her trainer ran four fillies on debut today after a quiet start to the season and had a winner and a second. This suggests that he is bringing out some of his better 2yos. Therefore, with Skyelady also getting a good run through the race, being able to track the pace and being closest to it when the leaders faded to take the lead. Along with the 'failures' of Oceans Apart and Salut D'Amour led to the unusual debut win at 20/1.

The following tables gives the ratings given to the actual race performances ('Estimate') compared to the Profile ratings assigned before the race. Boxes in green indicate a runner that over-performed in the race against the pre-race profile and in pink one that notably under-performed.


	Skyelady	Salut D'Amour	Oceans Apart	Ellcon	Rack And Ruin	Smart Pick	Trans Vision	Stanley Bay	Bella Fiorella
[Estimate] Post Race	58	55	51	51	47	39	41	29	0
Pre-race Profile	52	71	77	51	63	18	35	54	33

Skyelady (G Gibbons) opened at 20/1 and remained there while the trainer's other runner - Stanley Bay (T Durcan) - went from 20/1 to 25/1. The trainer also ran two fillies in the Maiden race at Ripon on the same day and the stable jockey was at that meeting. Tracked the solid pace well and was best placed of the 'trackers' when the pacemakers stalled after trying to quicken the pace at 2f out. Kept on well without showing a change of pace. She looked bigger than Oceans Apart on TV pictures and with good reach in front.

A debut of this type for the trainer normally indicates a runner capable of developing to 75+ rating. Worth noting that the dam was a FTO winner who didn't progress. Also worth considering the sire's record with his first 2yos in 2004 where the majority showed their best form within the first two runs (including two debut winners) and did not show strong development from early performances.

Salut D'Amour was the first runner of the season for his trainer. He assesses the 2yos before they run and the SP is usually a solid indicator of what to expect. She opened at 5/1 and finished at 6/1 with nothing really supported in the group other than the odds-on favourite suggesting just an 'ok' debut was expected. In general the trainer has had his 2yos less 'wound up' on debut recently.

Got a slight bump at the stalls as Smart Pick went right but not a great problem and she settled in midfield around 2-3 lengths off the pacemakers at halfway. The jockey decided to switch her to the right at 2f out but this lost her ground as she had to manoeuvre behind the stalled Rack And Ruin and also Ellcon to get a clear run on the outside. She then ran on quite well and was making ground on all the other runners at the finish. If she had followed Skyelady (who she tracked in mid-race) through, rather than taking time to switch right, she might have won. Either way it would have been just an 'ok' debut and not promising she's superior nor a real 'speed' filly.

Oceans Apart had run what seemed a very promising debut at Newmarket and finishing strongest of all after sitting in midfield. However, the third from that race had run earlier today at Leicester and been beaten, at odds-on, in a moderate Leicester maiden. That filly (Abbielou) was surprisingly small in paddock review and this raised concerns over this filly because she had looked a similar size on TV pictures.

In a field with nothing else backed she was steady at 8/13f. Ran a different race and set a solid pace until after halfway and seemed to lack pace as the race slightly quickened inside 2f out and then plugging on for hard driving having drifted to the far rail. Performed well below expectations and the reasons are probably some mixture of :-

The Newmarket fillies' race finished second in was probably not as good as it seemed;
She's small and with moderate scope to develop from the debut run;
The ground was slightly softer here and her size may mean she's better on a firmer surface.
She's not a real 5f filly and would be better picking off stalled runners in a stiffer 5f finish as at Newmarket.
Her trainer's unusual record with early debuts. In 2004 the first 9 debuts through to May 21st included 5 runners who did not run again and another that had one other moderate run (Planet Tomato who had made a similar good debut). In 2003 several early runners did not run again or had long breaks to the second run (Western Roots, Powerful Parrish, Lady Procurer, Happy Crusader for example).

Ellcon opened 20/1 and finished 25/1. She never got into her early debut race at Warwick and had looked limited to getting to around a 70 rating at best if she developed. She ran to expectations here by showing improved form but not looking competitive. She settled within 2 lengths of the pacemakers at halfway and was slightly outpaced after 2f out as the race 'quickened'. She plugged on maintaining her relative position to the others with the exception of the first two. An improved run but not suggesting she's going to develop beyond the earlier assessment. However, worth noting she is by a sire with a better record on GF+ going which she hasn't seen yet.

Rack And Ruin was steady at 7/1 third favourite in a group with only the favourite supported. Tracked the pace by just over a length at halfway, got slightly outpaced after 2f out and then faded late to a modest 5th. An acceptable debut for an average winner for the trainer but did not look a real 5f type in line with her 6f+ pedigree.

Smart Pick was 50/1 with a 7lb apprentice for her small trainer. Ran above the low expectations and tracked the pace and plugged on for a relatively close 6th. Inclined to view that her proximity drags down the overall rating level rather than suggesting she's got better ability.

Trans Vision was 33/1 for a trainer who usually has poor debuts. This one at least showed some pace to lead early and then press the pacemaker to past halfway. However she faded strongly before one furlong out and ran roughly to expectations. Not a lost cause and might make a low level competitive type for the trainer.

Stanley Bay (T Durcan) opened 20/1 and finished 25/1 (the stable's other runner (G Gibbons) - who won - was steady at 20/1). Lost any chance of getting into a race with a solid pace at the start. Broke slightly slow and then went left behind the other runners and lost 3 lengths or more. Was always off the back of the main group after that and 5 lengths+ off the pace at halfway.

Bella Fiorella opened at 12/1 and finished 11/1 for a trainer who normally has uncompetitive debuts. Close to the pace after one furlong but had drifted to the rail and lost a little ground by halfway. Faded strong from inside 2f out and probably eased late.