BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Race Report
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061: Newmarket, May 1st : 5f (4) Maiden

RACE SUMMARY
 

  • Race run on GF(F) ground along the stands' rail. The race was run at a solid but not strong pace for the first 3f and the moderate types (such as Mister Incredible, Polar Blizzard & Scroll) were well in touch past halfway. The race really quickened from inside 2f out and the first 5 home went away from the moderate group. Those best placed as the race quickened fought out the finish and the only runner in the first 5 to make notable ground was George Washington after he had 'jumped' around the fading Polar Blizzard. He deserves extra credit for quickening against good opponents who had a better run.
  • The pace in the race meant that the overall form level was not startling (although high by maiden standards) but the first four impressed with the way they quickened and drew away from the moderate group in a short distance. The first three were still going forward strongly at the finish and promising that they can achieve much higher ratings.
  • The following tables gives the ratings given to the actual race performances ('Estimate') compared to the Profile ratings assigned before the race. Boxes in green indicate a runner that over-performed in the race against the pre-race profile and in pink one that notably under-performed.

  •  
    League Champion Northern Empire George Washington Laith Guest Connections Mytton's Pride Scroll Mister Incredible Glendening Polar Blizzard Envision
    [Estimate] Post Race 78 77 73 68 64 49 45 41 38 34 WD
    Pre-race
    Profile
    68 69 77 73 70 58 62 53 41 30 [75]
     

    League Champion 16/1 fifth favourite and the trainer's first 2yo runner of the season. His earliest runner in the last three seasons have been My Personal Space (2003, May 25th 1st at 10/1), Master Cobbler (2004, June 26th 1st at 16/1, ran two others in the same race) and this one. So given the unusually early debut we can assume he had assessed this one at home and knew it was ready and useful (although this knowledge doesn't seem to transmit to the betting ring with this stable). As a general point it is worth noting that the follow up debuts after his first runner are 2yos of variable quality and only the very best types tend to win FTO. In that context it will be interesting to see how Titus Maximus performs on his debut three days after this one.

    Looked a medium sized and ready type and one of the fittest and readiest. Powerful built behind although a little weaker in front. Drawn 2 near the rail and broke well to track the pacemaker and within a half length of the leader at halfway. These two quickened together from after halfway and had the advantage of the rail and the best position to start the sprint-for-home from. Quickened up with Northern Empire and looked held until that opponent slightly faded late uphill. Showed a good attitude to stretch out late to win.

    A debut run of this quality by a trainer's 2yo suggest he will be able to rate 100+ during the season. One slight niggle would be that his earliest debut winners in 2003-4 have not progressed as well as his later season FTO winners. His debut winners normally have their STO run mapped out which is usually in a Listed+ race within 14-21 days. Given that 'Royal Ascot' is further away that that it will be interesting to see where he runs before that.

    Northern Empire Received late support from 12/1 to 8/1 for a trainer who does not target strong debut runs. However, his Newmarket debut runners have tended to be his better types in the last two seasons.

    Above average size and heavily built with a "bull" front. Slightly lengthy for size and build but with a shortish neck. Had room to improve his fitness. He carries himself well and had a good attitude. His shorter neck and build along with his rhythmical movement on the firm ground as he led was somewhat reminiscent of Choisir.

    Broke well and set a solid but not strong pace from the start. Led by half a length at halfway and quickened the race from 2f out. Had the advantage of a good place to start the sprint-for-home but showed a real quickening of the pace and looked likely to win until slightly faltering late on on the uphill section and passed by a readier and quite hard ridden opponent.

    A debut of this quality for the trainer is an almost certain sign of a Group class runner and it would be surprising if he could not rate 100+ over 5f in the season. He ought to be effective at a high level at 5f and may well run in the Norfolk Stakes.

    George Washington  Strongly supported although drifted slightly from 5/4 to 13/8f as others received some support. The vibes were that he was very good and the fact that the stable had already won both Guineas races at the meeting probably increased confidence in him - the "Ballydoyle is back" effect. The trainer's record with FTO runners at Newmarket is mixed and overall suggest that he doesn't have his 2yos 'wound up' for their debuts.

    Broke well and (typically) settled closer to the back of the field by K Fallon. The race had just a solid pace for the first 3f which meant he had over 3 lengths to make up on the leaders (who finished first & second) as the race quickened after halfway. He then had to jump around the fading Polar Blizzard as that runner jinked right. He showed good agility in doing this suggesting he was not under strong pressure. Probably did not lose that much ground with this manoeuvre and then showed a real change-of-pace and lengthening to make two lengths+ on the leaders before the jockey accepted late on that he wouldn't be able to win and settled for third.

    A very good debut and promising that he is a very high class 2yo and much better than Newton who he entered for this race in 2003. Did not looked hard pressed at the finish and still going forward and looked a real professional who will better over further.

    Laith Touched 3/1 from 11/4 before strong support brought him in to 5/2 as second favourite. The trainer's early debut runs in 2005 have been mixed but in general have not been as ready and competitive as usual and his run here was similar.

    Medium size but with a heavy build. Slightly short but above average length and a mix of the better aspects of his sire's two main types. Drawn on the rail and broke ok but the jockey wanted to settle him and he was midfield on the rail. He ran somewhat freely behind the solid, but not strong, pace and the jockey held him up to halfway. Around 3 lengths off the leader at halfway and quickened relatively easily as the pace increased from 2f out (did it on being allowed to his to pull forward rather than needing to be 'asked'). Made a little ground on the leaders to 1f out but then stalled and slightly faded in the last uphill furlong. Not untypical of his trainer's debuts in 2005 in lacking the final 'edge'.

    A solid debut against stiff oppositions and promising high class form over 5f when allowed to use his pace.

    Guest Connections Mild each-way support from 20/1 to 141 and finished as fourth favourite. Looked a typical neat trainer type but slightly lighter build and narrower than the 'big lads' in the field. In line with his trainer's debuts he was not hard fit.

    Broke ok and settled in midfield and around 2 lengths off a solid, but not strong early pace. Slightly outpaced and needed to be driven as the pace increase from 2f out. Lost ground to the front 4 in this part of the race but pulled away from the moderate types. Beaten 4 lengths+ and the right side of a 5 length gap back to the rest.

    A good debut by trainer standards in a tough race and promising for useful+ form but unlikely to be up to the quality of the first four in later races.

    Myttons Pride 50/1. The trainer rarely runs his 2yos at Newmarket on debut although this was the second of 2005. The later performances of these two will be interesting.

    In a quality group including 'big lads' he looked an ok size but obviously more lightly built and narrower/shallower.  However, he carries himself well and shows acceptable athleticism.

    Broke right handed and lost a little ground and the jockey was keen to settle him and he was at the back of the group behind a solid, but not strong, pace. Around 5 lengths off the lead and outpaced as the better types quickened from 2f out. Kept on reasonably and picked up the fading moderate types who had sat a little closer to the pace quite easily. The wrong side of a 5 length gap but those in front are useful+ and he beat the others quite comfortably and left the impression he could have done better. A perfectly good debut in context and ok promise to be a 70+ rater.

    Scroll 33/1. Ran for the race sponsors. Drawn next to Envision who spent 25 seconds panicking and kicking out before being taken out of the stalls. Behaved very well given the mayhem next door.

    Broke ok and settled midfield around 3 lengths off a solid, but not strong, pace. Outpaced as the race quickened from 2f out and faded in the last furlong. Ran below expectations and possibly not quite as ready as forecast. No obvious promise.

    Mister Incredible 66/1. Broke well and ran slightly freely and ran in fourth around two lengths off the pacemakers. Pulled for his head a little at various times and looked a slightly awkward ride. Soon outpaced inside 2f out as the better types quickened. Faded in the last furlong.

    Glendening 50/1. Ran for a trainer who has his older horses in good form and the first 2yo runner of the season. Outpaced from the start and driven along for most of the race. Off the back of the group at halfway and no real progress. No promise.

    Polar Blizzard 33/1. The only runner with previous experience in the field and finished last. Driven along early to get close to the pacemakers and within a length of a solid, but not strong pace, at halfway. Quickly outpaced and became unbalanced and jinked right as the pace quickened from 2f out. Faded badly from there. Ran to expectations and looks limited.

    Envision Steady around 7/1 third favourite as three other runners were supported. Had looked settled and not caused any problems before loading. Put into the stalls last and immediately panicked and started jump kicking at the rear stalls gates. Kept this up for 25 seconds as the jockey tried to hold his head whil balanced on the stalls framework. He calmed down and backed himself out of the stalls as soon as the gates were opened and stood relatively calmly with a handler. Withdrawn straight away and the race started.
     
     



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