British 2yo Racing - 2005 Season Race Report

BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Race Report

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069: Chester, May 4th : 5f (2) Conditions - 'Lily Agnes'

RACE SUMMARY

A good edition of the race with the first two showing they are well above the class of the other early season winners in the field. Both will no doubt now run in Listed+ races. The bigger of the two, the filly Ooh Aah Camara, probably has the slightly better chance of winning in the higher class races. She seems to have more physical scope to develop and this run on better ground was a notable improvement on her previous form. She showed unexpected speed to lie up easily with the pacemakers and some change-of-pace to go on towards the final furlong. She looks likely to stay 6f.

Strike Up The Band also showed a notable change-of-pace towards the last furlong but the bigger filly was able to go with him and just get by. His ability to quicken will make it relatively easy for him to pick up Conditions races which often have slow paces. However, he may fall short in higher class races against bigger 2yos.

The race was run at a solid, but not frantic pace (the later maiden race was probably slightly quicker in the early stages.) with Dusty City and Danjet settling the pace after a hard run first furlong to establish their positions. The field were quite well packed at halfway and Dusty City quickened the pace from there although not enough to stretch the better types. The leaders stalled from towards the final furlong. The first two who had travelled well behind the pace picked different routes through the pack and quickened away together. Strike Up The Band showed a slightly better acceleration but once into stride the bigger Ooh Aah Camara regained the ground. They duelled to the line. Dusty City kept on for third and best of the pacemakers. Other than the poor run by Don't Tell Sue the result seemed to be a fair reflection of the relative abilities.

The following tables gives the ratings given to the actual race performances ('Estimate') compared to the Profile ratings assigned before the race. Boxes in green indicate a runner that over-performed in the race against the pre-race profile and in pink one that notably under-performed.


	Ooh Aah Camara	Strike Up The Band	Dusty City	Bel Cantor	Danjet	Lake Hero	Overstayed	Dream Factor	Miss Lovat	Don't Tell Sue
[Estimate] Post Race	85	90	72	69	66	58	66	57	49	25
Pre-race Profile	66	81	70	69	75	60	78	50	50	79

Ooh Aah Camara was running for the second time in 4 days and on better going after two runs on softer going at Thirsk. In the better of those two Thirsk races she had given the impression of being outpaced. Her performance here suggests that is an incorrect reading and she has good pace but needs better going to show it. She showed a notable improvement STO on better ground at Doncaster only 4 days after her poor debut on softer going at Warwick. The other major point to note was that she was probably the biggest in the field and seems to have scope to improve further.

She received each-way support from 11/1 to 10/1 as third favourite. She broke best from stall one and ran slightly freely early. Her jockey was happy to settle her on the rail behind the pair Dusty City (stall 6) and Danjet (4) who ran hard in the first furlong to duel for the lead. She travelled well behind the solid pace. She was 2.5 lengths off the pace at halfway in 5th as others pressed the leading pair. The pacemakers stalled towards the final furlong and she easily went though and then showed some change-of-pace to quicken to go away with Strike Up The Band in the last furlong. The smaller colt showed the sharper acceleration and opened a half length lead but she was able to gain on him after his initial 'spurt'. Pulled 5 lengths clear of the pacemaker in the last furlong+.

Looks capable of further physical development and should stay 6f. Capable of rating higher.

Strike Up The Band Strongly supported at 11/10 to 10/11f in a lopsided market. Had looked the best of the once raced winners with potential in the field on his run 7 days previously. Looked very fit and ready here. Smaller than Ooh Aah Camara and possibly has less scope.

Broke acceptably from his good draw in 2 but settled 6th and one off the rail. 3 lengths off the leaders at halfway and travelling well. Switched right to challenge wider into the straight as the leaders stalled. Showed a sharp change-of -pace to go clear with Ooh Aah Camara and showed better acceleration that the filly. However, the bigger filly gained on him after she had got going and they battled to the line.

Looks a ready 2yo with a sharp turn of pace which will gain 2-3 lengths but appears to be vulnerable to bigger types. Can rate higher but may be best in Conditions races where he can use his change-of-pace.

Dusty City 16/1 7th favourite. Appears to have developed to be his trainer's best 2yo after probably being second ranked in early season. He is smallish and compact but has muscled up well in into speedy little sprinter although limited by his range.

Broke 3rd from stall 6 and ran hard in the first furlong to establish a half length lead 1 off he rail. His jockey then settled him as the pacemaker until quickened the race from halfway and cut across Danjet to the rail 1.5 furlong out. Gained a little over the other runners by this effort but the first two travelled well behind and quickened away from him. Did best of the pacemakers to keep on for 3rd. Ran to expectations and probably has limited scope to develop that rating.

Bel Cantor 14/1 6th favourite and L Dettori riding. Showed typical improvement to expected level and probably close to his best rating. Had a 'quiet race' and the advantage of a good position and an even race but lacked the ability to use it in the later stages of the race. Settled 3rd early one off the rail and fifth at halfway as others made efforts wide out. As the pacemakers stalled 1.5 furlongs out the first two came through from behind him to go clear. He plugged on without showing any real progress and couldn't get to Dusty City who had set the pace.

Danjet 4/1 second favourite. Having her fifth race and her trainer has had 50+ runners since his last winner although she had run a good second in that period. Looked a little "tired" & "down" in the paddock and not at her best. Broke second best from stall 4 and ran hard in first furlong to settle 2nd but with the rail position. Travelled second around half a length off the lead to past halfway. Slightly outpaced as the leader pressed on 2f out and she was slightly hampered as he cut across her to the rail. After that the jockey did not press her hard and just kept on. Ran below expectations and the mix of minor issues noted could have caused that. However, she would probably only have been third at best and the first two look better class.

Lake Hero 50/1 9th favourite and interesting to estimate how she compares to her trainer's other winning fillies - Amber Glory & Countrywide Dream. Is she the best of these three? Broke 4th from stall 9 and settled 5th early 3 off the rail. As the leaders settled the pace down after the first furlong she made progress to press the pacemakers at halfway, this was an early effort and at least 3 wide off the rails. She faded a little from 1.5f out and ran to expectations. However, she can probably rate higher with a more even race run.

Overstayed His debut win in a slow time on soft going had been difficult to read and the subsequent failure of the only runner to keep close to him there had made it more so. Drawn in 8 of 10 and no obvious confidence at 11/1 fifth favourite. Broke ok and settled 7th around 3 lengths off the pace after one furlong. As the leaders settled the pace down he then made an effort, at least 4 wide from the rail, to press the pacemakers at halfway. Faded from 1.5f out as the leaders stalled. Ran below expectations but it had been difficult to set his level. Capable of a higher rating on a more even race run.

Dream Factor 33/1 8th favourite. Ran to expectations and a little outpaced throughout and never got into the race. Looked a moderate physical type and probably ran close to her best rating.

Miss Lovat 66/1 outsider on debut. Looked an ok size and build with some depth but leggy. Last after the first furlong at the back of the group and around 5 lengths off the pacemakers at halfway. No progress and a slight fade late. A fairly typical trainer debut in 2005 and the STO runs have not shown improvement so far.

Don't Tell Sue 10/1 4th favourite and no obvious confidence. The trainer targets winners at the course and had the winner of the 2yo maiden later in the day. Drawn 10 and settled 8th, made a small effort to be around 3.5 lengths off the pacemakers at halfway but faded from 1.5f out and eased. A poor run and never looked like getting into the race and different from his debut where his natural 'free running' style had pulled him into the race.. Performed well below expectations.