British 2yo Racing - 2005 Season Race Report

BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Race Report

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070: Chester, May 4th : 5f (3) Maiden

RACE SUMMARY

The class 3 rating of the race can give the impression that this is usually a strong maiden. Traditionally it a moderate race and the majority of runners are capable of 60s ratings at best and most well below that. Even the previous winners have tended to be just average types and the race typically has little future relevance including just a few minor winners. The current race looked similar on profile with only River Kintyre looking likely to be of longer term interest. The way the race developed is an interesting story and explains why the 'second rank' of runners on profile mostly underperformed. Because of this the 2nd & 4th-6th placers are probably only claimer level runners (the 4th has already run unsuccessfully in a claimer)

The race featured too strong a pace for the quality of runners (other than the winner) and the first part of the race was probably quicker than the earlier Lily Agnes race and this led to a slow last two furlongs and two of three pacemakers 'cracking' completely.

The race had a strong pace from the start with the bulk of the field spread across more than 8 lengths with weaker stragglers even further back. The leading pair of Mytton's Pride (aggressively ridden) and River Kintyre were clear with only Titus Maximus getting towards them. These three pressed the pace on further to halfway and at that point only the first 7 were within 7 lengths of the pacemaker. The race closed up from 2f out as two of the pacemakers faded and and River Kintyre went on alone. The moderate types closed up to 3 lengths off the leader but could get no closer.

The time of the race was 1.72s slower than the earlier Lily Agnes and the uneven pacemaking was a part of the reason for this. This was the last race on the card so the ground may have started to cut up. The overall level of form was low but the winner deserves extra credit for fighting off two very active pace pressers, who both folded entirely, and keeping on well enough to hold mostly moderate sorts. The only reasonable quality opponent amongst the closers - Silver Crest - had got a long way back (around 8 lengths after the first furlong) and made good ground in the second half of the race but stalled in the last furlong.

The following tables gives the ratings given to the actual race performances ('Estimate') compared to the Profile ratings assigned before the race. Boxes in green indicate a runner that over-performed in the race against the pre-race profile and in pink one that notably under-performed.


1st - 10th	River Kintyre	Scooby Dude	Silver Crest	Looking North	Active Audience	Dancing Flame	Tequila Rose	Tara Tornado	Mytton's Pride	Zenner- man
[Estimate] Post Race	70	59	58	51	49	48	43	40	29	28
Pre-race Profile	74	45	64	47	57	56	55	53	61	39


11th - 16th	Becktara	Stanley Bay	Titus Maximus	Figjam	La Bomba Veloce	Blackpool
[Estimate] Post Race	12	5	5	8	0	0
Pre-race Profile	62	46	63	56	30	18

River Kintyre Good values at 6/5f from 6/4f in a moderate group. Ran roughly to expectations but had to fight off two active pacemakers in a race with a strong pace and did well to keep on for a 3.5L win from moderate types. Can rate higher with a more even run. The trainer has now had STO wins with both early season debut runners who made uncompetitive debuts. Both have looked much more ready and competent STO.

Scooby Dude 33/1 to 40/1 and ran for a trainer who has her cheap 2yos fit and professional on debut. In a race with an uneven pace she had a good trip and was 8 lengths off the pacemakers at halfway (but only 1 length behind the 4th) and 3 lengths behind the 5th & 6th who were more active in trying to chase the too strong pace. Made good progress relative to the other moderate types from 2f to 1f out as the race closed up when the pace folded. Plugged on in the last furlong. Ran above expectations but within his expected ability range. Would not expect any notable improvement.

Silver Crest Received some each-way support as second favourite to get back to 6/1 after drifting to 7/1 from 11/2. Bad draw in 14 of 16 and made that problem worse with a slow start that lost two lengths or more. 8 lengths off the too strong pace after 1 furlong and at least 10 lengths back at halfway. Made good progress with and through the moderate types as the race closed up from 2f out as the pace folded. Stalled in the last 1/2 furlong as effort told. Performed slightly below expectations but a solid run. Worth comparing him to the 2nd and 4th who are probably 55-64 types at very best - although he made a lot of ground overall he only made 2-3 lengths compared to these two at most. Jury still out on the exact form level he showed at Nottingham.

Looking North 14/1 to 20/1 on his first run for a new trainer after being claimed LTO. Outpaced but had a good run through the race because she couldn't chase the too strong pace and in effect plugged around in an even pace at here own level. Performed to expectations.

Mytton's Pride 14/1 to 16/1 5th favourite. Ran only 3 days after a quiet Newmarket debut where they looked to be trying to teach him to settle. Which seems odd given the mayhem here. Given a very aggressive ride and broke first from stall 9 and set a strong pace to lead at the end of the first furlong with the field spread over 10 lengths and more. Continued to be driven to press on with the pace and the first three were 5 lengths clear at halfway and less than half the field within 7 lengths. Started to stall from 1.5 furlong out and had 'gone' entirely by the start of the last furlong and coasted home.

On the plus side it was good to see he has some pace and had the moderate types outpaced but what was the point? Can do better with development but interesting to see what effect this run has.

Becktara Made a poor debut as favourite in an early season race where he faded badly after showing some pace. 25/1 here and that was a bad sign. Ran a similar race by being 7th and within 7 lengths of the too strong pace to halfway but fading from there and completely folded. Moderate types who were in similar positions at halfway kept on much better. Looks to be a rather disappointing type.

Stanley Bay 40/1 after starting at 33/1 and touching 50/1. Drawn 16 of 16 and made that even worse by losing 2 lengths with a slow break and losing further ground by not picking up properly. Both problems she had shown FTO. Always adrift off the back of a race with a too strong pace after that.

Titus Maximus Each-way support from 10/1 to 15/2 fourth favourite in a lopsided market. An unusually early debut for his trainer who had won with his first runner 3 days earlier. Broke 4th from stall 10 and ran a hard first furlong to get to third 3 off the rail but still more than a length off the leaders. The race had too strong a pace and his jockey made this worse for him by pressing him to make ground on the two leaders (who were going close to flat out) from after 1 furlong to before halfway (and 2-3 wide). This big effort meant that he was fading before halfway and had 'cracked' entirely by 1.5f out and 'walked' to the finish. On the plus side he showed some pace to chase the leaders but he blew up rather early even given the pace.

Figjam 13/2 third favourite with Fallon riding and well drawn in stall 2. Looked small and fitter than the trainer's usual and he has not had a strong debut in 2005. Broke 2nd and 3 lengths off the strong pace after 1f with the field was spread over 10 lengths and more by this point. Fading before halfway (moderate types kept on better from similar positions) and lost ground quite quickly and the jockey almost pulled him up in the last furlong. No obvious excuse.