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The 2003-2004 results are at the bottom
of the page for comparison |
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JUNE 6th SUMMING UP
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A moderate race in profile in which a rating somewhere between 65-72 would
probably be enough to win. A bunch near the top and probably five of the
candidates have prospects to be able to reach that level.
Ten Downing Street has managed minor places in two moderate 5f races
and has been held up after showing signs of trying to run too freely. In
both races he has travelled well enough but has shown a moderate response
when asked to move on to challenge. He steps up to 6f on a flat track after
a somewhat disadvantaged run in a chaotic 5f race at Sandown. He had to
run away from the beneficial rail strip and got carried left late in the
race. Even so that was a moderate level of form in a slow time and he has
had only a short break. He might be better being allowed to stride on more
rather than being ridden to pick leaders off but either way looks vulnerable
to better types.
Murfreesboro is a member of his trainer's "i've had one quiet run
and can you guess what I'm going to do next time out" club. He made a below
average debut at a longer SP even by his trainer's standards and would
need to improve greatly to win. He's likely to improve a lot but unless
the firm ground on his debut stop him showing better form it is hard to
see him being good enough.
Indigo Nights was the first example of a long priced place on debut
for her trainer who is notable for having the 2yos fit and ready on FTO.
They tend to show little improvement in rating from debut. She got behind
in a 5f race on a stiff course last week but appeared to keep on quite
well in the last furlong and steps up to 6f. Her 'finish' at Newcastle
was made to look better by the fading Desert Realm but a level of form
that would make her competitive here. She left the impression that 6f on
a fast, flat track like this may not be her ideal.
The runners with previous runs therefore present lukewarm profiles and
a good debut by a better newcomer would cause them problems. Prince
Picasso's trainer has probably had his 2yos at the usual readiness
on debut in 2005 and has got two wins and three second places by better
types in moderate races. This looks like another moderate race so he has
good prospects to be involved in the finish. A longer SP (say 9/1+) would
be a notable negative.
The other newcomer worth mentioning is Miss Sure Bond who was an
expensive purchase at the sales. Her trainer made a late start with his
2yos and the first 5 runners produced 2 wins and 3 places on debut. He's
run two moderate ones since that early batch so difficult to know whether
she's been held back because she lacks ability. The trainer must know how
she compares to the other fillies he has run so market support, in this
particular instance, would be informative.
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RACE QUALITY:
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A moderate race overall in the last three years. The fields of 2002-4 have
included just two later winners from more than 30 runners.
There has been an odds-on favourite from a southern based trainer in each
year with M Channon & E Dunlop having winners at the short SP and JW
Hills failing (not unusually).
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TRAINERS:
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It can be difficult to spot which of J Gosden's 2yos will step forward
to compete well second time after indifferent debuts. So far he has run
10 2yos with 1 winning and 9 finishing unplaced FTO.
Three of the unplaced debuts have run STO with two wins and one unplaced.
The wins have been at 11/4 (backed to 4/1 on debut), and 8/1 (9/1 on debut).
The unplaced runner was at 7/2 (5/1 debut).
Looking at the debut ratings the two STO winners rated 56 & 57 FTO.
The unplaced runner rated 47. The two winners improved by 12-18lb STO.
The two STO winners have been at lesser courses (Lingfield & Doncaster)
and the unplaced runner at Goodwood.
He runs Murfreesboro here who was 12/1 on debut and rated 39. He
ran in a division of the maiden where the trainer won the second division
with a backed newcomer.
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SIRES:
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First season sire City On A Hill (Pab Special) has a runner.
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Murfreesboro rated 66.
Flying Doctor rated 62.
Khorkina rated 62.
Supreme Charter rated 61
Indigo Nights rated 58.
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