|
|
|
JUNE 9th SUMMING UP
|
In a season where the trainer appears to have a average group of sprint
2yos at best Kings Cavalier made about the fifth best debut
we have seen from a R Hannon 2yo. He was also the only one to make a debut
in a Novice race other than a maiden (discounting the oddity of the first
race of the season). If that rating is correct then normal improvement
by a STO runner for the stable will see him set a strong standard.
Namoos marks the start of the first batch of 2yo runners for J Dunlop.
The statistics below tell the tale of a trainer that does not target
strong debuts and she would need to be useful, and probably better, to
win FTO. However, if he is going to have an early FTO win she would be
one of the least surprising. Her sire, dam and half brother all won on
debut over 6f, two of them for this trainer. All proved short of Group
class but were able to win ordinary races comfortably on natural ability.
She would need to be from the same mould to win FTO but the early debut,
for this particular owner, is a positive.
|
|
RACE QUALITY:
|
There has been no corresponding race in the last two seasons.
|
|
TRAINERS:
|
JL Dunlop has his first runner of the season with Namoos.
This is a roughly normal time for him to start running the first batch
of 2yos and the same as in 2004. In the previous two years he started as
early as mid May in 2002 but then waited until late June in 2003.
He is a consistent and reliable trainer and interested in 2yo racing for
its own sake and does try to get wins at various levels (unlike his son's
record and preference for example). Overall strategy is to win a maiden
in the first 3 runs and then step better runners up to Conditions races
or higher
He is quoted as saying all 2yo work is done as relative gallops between
matched pairs/threesomes and no timing is done. This means that until he
has seen how the initial debuts run he does not have a full understanding
of ability of 2yos. This also matches the fact that his winners make debuts
throughout season, i.e. he has not identified best runners by June and
runs those first.
He does not target FTO wins and the ones he get are usually with superior
runners and occasionally with average types in weak races. His runners
are usually at, or above, average fitness on debut and it is usually their
lack of mental sharpness and the trainer's requirement that they do not
have hard races that limits their FTO performance.
Given the relatively small number of FTO wins his runners which start at
less than 10/1 are usually poor value. In 2003-4 with a lack of superior
runners this group produced 6 wins from 42 runs in total and none in 2004.
His first 10 debut runs in the previous 3 seasons have the following records
:-
2002 = 1 winner (13/2), 2 placed, 7 unplaced. Three started less than 10/1
(1 winner) and four of the 10 were winners in the season.
2003 = 1 winner (11/2), 3 placed, 6 unplaced. Five started at less than
10/1 with one win and 2 placed. Five of the 10 were winners in the season.
2004 = No wins, 9 made the first 4 places, 3 were less than 10/1. Only
one of this group won in the season.
M Tregoning has two runners and stable jockey M Dwyer rides Nawayea
rather than The Moon And Back.
|
|
SIRES:
|
First season sire Observatory (Billich) has a runner.
US based sire Sky Classic (The Moon And Back) has a runner who is
a full brother to the only 2yo winner he has had in Britain in 2002-4.
|