British 2yo Racing - 2005 Season Race Profile

BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Nursery Summary Page

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Race 298 : Pontefract, July 5th : 6f Nursery (4)
* The first Nursery Race of the season and a trial format for the information for these races.

The target with Nursery races is to identify those runners which have got in with an Official Rating which does not reflect their full ability. The [Profile] rating reflects the view of what the horse should be capable of given not just previous form but also physical reviews and trainer strategies. The figure in the [Difference] column will indicate how 'well in' the runner appears to be at the weights. Remember that this is a basic rating based on physical capabilities and will not include subtleties like draw, going and trainer form.

Declared Runners:

	Official Rating	[Profile]	Difference	Comments	Post Race [Estimate]
1. More Time	81	73	-8	Rated 75 at the sales but appears not to have grown. Balance of form suggests a 70s type and a reasonable OR.	75
2. Mujood	79	64	-15	In common with trainer 2yos in 2005 has shown a solid cruising speed but 'powder puff' finishes. Hard to see him improving for this stiff 6f.	74
3. Charlie Delta	79	64	-15	Easy winner of a claimer LTO but beating poor types. OR suggests he's better than his sisters which seems unlikely.	62
4. Always Baileys	77	62	-15	Drops back to 6f after being outpaced on a flat, turning 7f and fading. Outpaced twice over 5f before beating seller winners uphill at Carlisle.	38
5. Mormeatmic	76	55	-21	Steps back up to 6f where he showed his best form but that looks to be well below the OR level.	NR
6. Bathwick Prince	74	63	-11	Steps up to 6f after one promising run out of 4 at 5f. Has review to rate low 60s.	55
7. Musical Guest	73	66	-7	Rated 65 at the sales despite the 78k price. First two runs were poor and below 60s level. The 2nd in a 3 runner race LTO is suspect form but he ought to be capable of rating 60s and has a realistic OR.	52
8. Chase The Ace	71	62	-9	Steps to 6f after three 5f runs. Too free on debut and outpaced before plugging on uphill twice. Support and general profile suggest can improve form level.	50
9. Flying Key	70	56	-14	Comfortable seller winner LTO from a poor filly and a poorly drawn previous winner. Lacks physical scope to improve. OR70 on the high side. First run for a new trainer.	57
10. Spitzenparkes	69	47	-22	OR69 too high for level of form shown in seller level races.	35
11. Shaydream- believer	68	54	-14 ?	Rated 67 at the sales and should be able to rate better than he's shown in 3 early season runs. Trainer seems to run moderate types in early season and they perform less well on debut and show little improvement. He has also seemed entirely paceless in his runs. One to assess on return after a break.	38
12. Beverley Polo	67	54	-13	Steps up to 6f after predictably outclassed in a Novice race. In context of the race has a reasonable OR and well drawn.	NR
13. First Byte	58	42	-16		NR
14. True Valentine	58 (50)	36	-22		31

Pre-Race Summary :

A moderate quality race despite the Class 4 rating and 9 of the field have 70+ ratings despite the majority being seller/claimer level types.

Few of the runners appear to have notable latent improvement none appeal as being particularly 'well in'. Musical Guest & Chase The Ace have hints that they further improvement.

Post Race Notes :

OFFICIAL RATING = whether they are central handicapper OR or RP estimates they are too high. Charlie Delta, Always Baileys, Musical Guest & Flying Key are not 70s types.

More Time & Mujood are solid examples of why top weights in nurseries have a good record. They have more physical scope and are closer to having realistic weights. The official handicapper is quick to rate any early season winner/placer in the 70s on limited evidence and moderate types end up rated in the 70s which they can't compete off except in races where all the runners are similarly over-burdened.

Conversely he probably does not push them too high into the 80s. More Time has sales review to be able to rate just over 80 and looked at least a mid-70s type on early season form. OR81 against these other types is a competitive weight. After a break he seems to have muscled up well and showed improved form within the expected range. Went 2-3L clear on the turn to the straight quite easily and would have won but for a slight fade late on. Can rate a little higher.

Mujood performed above expectations. Slightly niggled along at times but ridden differently from his previous two runs where he has pressed the pace and faded in the last furlong. Held up in rear here and finished the race off well but closing on a tiring runner and going away from runners 'not well in'. Ought to stay 7f on this and possibly rate a little higher with similar race style on a stiff track.

Flying Key & Charlie Delta ran roughly to profile expectations and have ORs which are 10-14lb too high so will be vulnerable to runners with more realistic ORs and unlikely to be able to improve.

Musical Guest drifted in the market and appeared to have no excuses. She ran to the same level as her two dull efforts at Ripon and confirmed the view that her 2nd of 3 at Bath is suspect form and over-rated. If she can't compete off OR73 in this group then she's going to struggle, full stop.

Shaydreambeliever seems as slow and limited as early season runs suggested. Another indication of the type the trainer runs in early season and fails to progress.

No obvious promise amongst the others, Bathwick Prince got unblanced in the straight and looked a difficult ride and not finishing the race off properly.