-
Right, so you've put some thought into the design, talked it through with
various people and then screwed the thing together. Let's wheel it out
onto the concrete and slap a sticker with "Turf (2yo) Season" on it and
get ready for lift-off. Go for Main Engine start and it looks promising
with a big field for the Brocklesby and an interesting race. But we don't
seem to have full ignition and just a bit of puttering smoke & vapour
coming out of the back. Nothing at Musselburgh before one race on the Bank
Holiday Monday. And then, nothing until Saturday at the earliest and a
range of turf and AW meetings pass with no juvenile events. "Is it ok to
go back and fiddle with it?". Should be fine, there's not enough energy
in it to blow it up on the launch pad...
-
What bit of central planning or individual racecourse decision making changed
things? In recent seasons we would have had a number of races at Musselburgh,
Redcar, Yarmouth and on the AW tracks in the interim. Which means the Warwick
fillies' race becomes more of a highlight than it deserves to be. Take
a look at last year's - Result
- to get a feel for the quality and note that race was on good-to-firm
at the start of a warm, dry, period. The front of the race produced a good
winner in Kylayne and a very ready, but limited, second in Sinead Of Aglish
who struggled greatly to win before her precocity advantage evaporated.
Behind that was nothing other than a minor seller winner although Bill
Turner's Only In Jest was withdrawn at the start on her second appearance
and would be the equivalent of his Brocklesby winner this year (but was
less forward in condition).
-
The two fillies in 2007 who at least gave the field some sort of interest
cost 15,000 guineas and €14,000 as yearlings and the 2008 race could
really do with a few more in that range. Twelve of this year's field were
sold as yearlings and 11 of them cost 5,000 gns or less once any
currency conversion is done. That is real bargain basement stuff and if
you got a Sinead Of Aglish for that money you would be doing fine and a
Kylayne a right royal result. The three 'owner breds' of some type include
two for Mick Channon of which Alphabeth is the more promising in profile
on pedigree grounds. However, Tarawa Atoll was entered for the Brocklesby
and has Chris Catlin on board who seems to be above Sam Hitchcott (Alphabeth)
in the order of getting the better rides. Both are by stallions he trained
and has kept involved with at stud. Bill Turner's Dancing Wave is the other
owner bred and unpromising.
-
Which means that 14 of the 15 runners have already proved to be unfancied
at the sales or have unpromising pedigrees other than perhaps Alphabeth
who may be the second string. If we took the two broad possible outcomes
for this race to be :-
-
a) One or two average, or a little better, fillies reveal themselves to
have developed well from the sales and finish clear - in the way the 3,800
gns purchase Sally's Dilemma won at Doncaster. With nothing of interest
behind.
-
b) It proves to be a moderate to worse field in total in which case a very
low quality performance can win and opens up the race to a wider range
of fillies and a possible longer priced winner. In that circumstance the
interplay of readiness, nous and quality is still likely to mean the Turner,
Channon & Evans four runners are the most likely source of the winner.
The 2003 edition was a good example with the 20/1 Bella Boy Zee winning
from a duff group on her way to a OR55-60 ratings level career.
-
To get a feel for this in Paddock Review terms try looking at these pictures
of Kylayne
(more build and power behind - and concentrate on the horse will you),
Sinead
Of Aglish (small, compact and no scope to develop) & Zahwah
(short, deeper in front but narrow in width, lengthy in the body &
lacking power behind). Remember that each one of these cost more than the
11 cheap buys in this year's field. The one's who have made better development
will stand out from the very small, underpowered, bits-and-pieces fillies
who aren't going to win anything. So where might the better one's be?
-
The one answer among the sales purchases is the 28,000 guineas Cecilia's
Lass for new trainer DH Brown who had Richo well beaten in the Brocklesby
for the same owner. Her dam cost Cheveley Park Stud $600,000 and was a
solid 6f winner at 2yo and is by a good sire who gets odd 5f winners. She
was seen at the Doncaster sales (a better type would have gone to Tattersalls
probably) and rated quite lowly and seen as an OR55-65 rater and some of
the price her pedigree. But this is such a weak race in profile that might
be enough if the trainer can do the job which we have only one, unsuccessful,
race to judge him on.
-
Amongst the owner breds Channon likes to support his 'own' stallions and
to get them early wins if possible. Alphabeth is by Hunting Lion who the
trainer nearly got a debut winner for here at Warwick early in his first
season with Garlogs. The dam has produced solid winners which makes you
wonder why she has ended up apparently owned by Channon. Tarawa Atoll is
by first season sire Imperial Dancer who won here at Warwick 3TO on April
24th as a 2yo for Channon and had a long career culminating in a 10f Group
3 win. You presume the trainer would want a good show but his Brocklesby
runner ran poorly.
-
So, unlikely to be a race to spend too long searching through for later
winners and quite probably a poor quality affair. Fillies with profiles
to be the possible surprises who can win comfortably and prove average
or better are not easy to find. The list wouldn't get much beyond Cecilia's
Lass & Tarawa Atoll and both have questions marks over how ready they
will be even if that good.
-
The safest alternatives are likely to be the best of the ready types assuming
a low quality needed to win and She's A Shaw Thing has a solid all-round
profile in that context. Given Bill Turner has already shown a ready 2yo
the best of his pair would be the other safer bet. The jockey who rode
his Brocklesby winner rides Meg Jicaro for another trainer to muddy things
up. Looking for a possible surprise longer shot would lead to Neo's Mate
-
In summary, She's A Shaw Thing comes out top of a low level profile. Channon
gets only rare debut winners but this is a weak enough race for Tarawa
Atoll to compete well if she knows what she is doing and shows up well
enough in review before the race. The better of the Turner pair should
place and compete for the win but unlikely to be much value given the way
the Market reacts to trainers later runners after a debut start to the
season. The winning bar is low though and a longer priced winner for a
slightly better type still possible.
|
