British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - May 5th 
Races :-
  • 57: Kempton AW 2:00, 5f Maiden (4)
  • 58: Newcastle 2:55, 5f Maiden (5)
  • 59: Warwick 2:45, 5f Maiden Fillies' (5)
  • 60: Windsor 3:05, 5f Maiden (5)

  •   May 5th Summary : 
     
    • Some unusual results on Sunday with winners at 20/1, 10/1 and 4/1 (3rd favourite of 4) and some explanations required. The overall results weren't quite as wild as the one of the bottom two on profile winning each race might make them sound. But, things happen for a reason and you can usually learn something useful if you try looking for those reasons. So, the Tuesday preview (only a single moderate Catterick race on the day) will cover the Newmarket maiden in detail (a very good group for a seven runner field) and some thoughts on the Salisbury and Hamilton races.
    • Before that some pointers on the Bank Holiday Monday races. The Newcastle race has cut up to just five declarations and one of those (Blow Your Mind) is also declared at Catterick on Tuesday so may not run. The outline of the race is covered in the FTO P&L box below.
    • The Kempton Class 4 maiden looks a solid one in profile. Flashmans Papers made a very good impression in Paddock Review on debut and ran a good race to finish behind two above average 2yos. In an ideal world he'd be a little bigger and he has a moderate draw in 1 but should compete strongly for the win. Shampagne hasn't been seen in paddock review and appeared to make a good debut at Nottingham. However, the filly that beat him was comfortably beaten at Salisbury yesterday to raise some doubt over the form. On the positive side his trainer's early 2yos have shown some progress to STO runs so far in 2008.
    • Imperial Skylight's form doesn't stand up to closer inspection and the 1st, 3rd, 5th & 6th from his Bath 4th have been beaten in various grades since (the 6th in claimers). Premier Krug ran poorly FTO in a weak looking Warwick event for fillies' FTO but was never put into the race properly. She should show up better here but lack the class to compete for the win.
    • Which means that stronger alternatives to the firs two on profile should come from the newcomers. Richard Hannon runs the expensively purchased Indian Art and he has said he would expect him "..to go close on debut". Richard Hughes is at Windsor and rides Robin The Till on debut there who seems to be in a more winnable race. Typically the trainers 2yos will need to be Listed class or above to win a normal race first time. The Sales Report suggested he would be a little short of that and he has two solid rivals to beat here.
    • Simon Callaghan's first 2yo runner with Cool Art yesterday didn't look particularly ready to compete FTO and his father was like Hannon in needing high class material to get debut winners for the most part. He runs an owner bred by the new sire One Cool Cat (as is Cool Art) with Elusive Ronnie. Until we learn more about the trainer we should probably be safe in assuming another middling debut. 
    • The other debut runner with some prospects is Andrew Balding's The Desert Saint. The trainer does get the odd debut winners but later May has been the earliest to expect these. He provided the 20/1 upset when his first 2yo debut this year (Foundation Room) won the Salisbury conditions race yesterday. That just isn't usual and there needs to be some explanation for that. That filly might be very useful but she cost 7,000gns at the sales and looked a lightly built and ready type, at best, on TV pictures. She presumably found a weak version of that Salisbury affair to win and the pacemakers probably went too hard to set themselves up. April Pride is presumably not the class of Hannon's recent winners of the race on the evidence on display. 
    • Whatever, Balding doesn't go in for lots of strong debuts like a David Evans and after that debut win The Desert Saint will be at a shorter price than he ought to be. With a record of 3 season winners from 12 juveniles that started out in May in 2005-7 its 3/1 against that The Desert Saint will be a winner this year, let alone in this race.
    • In summary, Flashmans Papers looked a strong STO prospect on the review and circumstances of his debut and should prove that here.
    • The Windsor race is likely to be missing Joe Caster who would have been poor value to hold off a better newcomer anyway. Kyllorien was a big negative in paddock review FTO and shouldn't be up to beating colts here. Robin The Till comes out top on profile because he has above average prospects to be a better debut for the trainer. 
    • Amanda Perrett runs Inside Knowledge for owner breeder Khalid Abdulla and is the third runner of the season. She has a below average FTO strike rate and especially so given the quality of the 2yos she has. Her first two runners have been typical in that they have looked good types without being ready enough to compete for the win. This one ought to be the same although there is one interesting wrinkle. 
    • The two debut winners she got in 2007 were both for this owner and both were with larger, grey sons of the sire Mizzen Mast who raced for the owner. You could add in Cruel Sea as another juvenile debut winner for the sire in 2007 to make it 3 from 9 with another two placed. It's possible the sire gets buzzy types that show up well FTO and sometimes don't progress. If you were at the course worth checking what Inside Knowledge looks like.
    • Trainer Roger Charlton has his first runner of the year with Fault for owner John Livock who must be due to run out of tennis related names at some point (Third Set, Ball Boy, Top Seed, etc.). 'Fault' is pretty lame you could say. Anyway, this is an early start for the trainer and normally he begins with a 'sighter' in late May. This is often a usable but limited type or a nursery development project. You would have to say that Fault looks better than that on pedigree and sales price and raises the issue that this might be a better one running because he got some real ability. The trainer did use to get debut winners and double figure strike rates were not uncommon. In the last two years the record is a single FTO success from 64 goes.
    • In summary, Robin The Till is taken to be a better debut and may be better value than Fault unless the Hannon money is on early. If Inside Knowledge is one of those big, fiery sons of Mizzen Mast that are best FTO he wouldn't be a total surprise to provide the Perrett debut winner for the year.
    • The Warwick fillies race feature a small, precocious type with form who you suspect is vulnerable to a newcomer. Raggle Taggle was caught on the line by Kate The Great on first time but that one did nothing to promote the form in a minor novice event at the weekend. The runners behind in that Lingfield opener have proved even more limited. She was unlucky again not to go close to winning at Nottingham STO but that probably amounts to similar form to her debut. She was beaten by Lisburn who battled with Kate The Great for third at Thirsk in that weekend novice. Close up at Nottingham was the limited Kingswinford to knock a bit more lustre off the deal. Harwalla in second was on debut and improved to STO and the Nottingham race looks over-rated.
    • The upshot is that a solid newcomer may have too much zip for Raggle Taggle who is likely to be at a poor value price anyway. Two of the newcomers are covered in the FTO P&L box. Mick Channon has made a slow start to the season but the on-course signs over the last week is that the horses are coming to proper condition and he had his first 2yo winner with Moss Likely last week. In that context Kerrys Requiem should provide a placed debut here at least.
    • Hannon runs the expensively purchased Verlegen and she is a half sister to Rag Top who won the 2002 edition of this race for the trainer on her debut. That filly won a Group 3 race at 2yo to again make the point about the type of quality often needed for his horses to win FTO. She's drawn widest in 12 and would have to be high class to compete for the win. Also worth mentioning Johnny Portman's Accede given that his two runners to date have won at 33/1 FTO and the other was 4th of 16 at 16/1. Perhaps he has his early runners more forward now than was typical in recent years.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Just Five (M Dods, Long Shot, Newcastle). Trainer has has two runners with an early poor debut followed by a solid second with his next FTO at Pontefract last week. Just Five is a cheap but but has dropped into a weak looking race on soft ground. The second on profile was beaten in a claimer first up and trainer Karen McClintock (Don Eddy's daughter and took over his licence) has her first ever debut 2yo runner with Blow Your Mind. Unless one of the fillies who bumbled around at the back on debut - Orphaned Annie & Sandies Sister have more to offer than the debuts suggested he has found a very winnable opening. The first of the bumblers - Orphaned Annie - attracted some support FTO so perhaps one to take some interest in in a weak heat.
    • Doc Jones (PD Evans, Long Shot, Windsor). Trainer has produced three debut winners this season and the first real 'Long Shot' for the Tracking with the 20/1 success of White Shift last week. Because he buys mostly cheap horses the number with the ability to win FTO, even when well primed, is usually limited. He's never had more than 2 debut winners in a season before 2008. Moderate pedigree and unlikely to be the fourth. The race is not that strong for a Windsor Maiden and should go to a newcomer.
    • Warwick :-
    • To The Point (ES McMahon, ALL), second runner for the trainer who had a solid second with Every Second as his first runner of the season at Bath last week. This one a filly by new sire Refuse To Bend from a very indifferent female side. Owned by his main supporter in John Fretwell.
    • Forward Feline (B Palling, Long Shot). the trainer's first runner of the season was Abhainn who finished 5th in the Bath maiden that McMahon's first runner was second in. Typically, Palling's runner was wound up and probably too fiery for debut. Gave troble in the parade ring and at the start and pulled hard through the race. This one for his major owners and has a little above average prospects of being the better end of his debut runners.

    ~ KTNA 2:00 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    7 SHAMPAGNE [48] - 2 40 1 40 30
    2 FLASHMANS PAPERS [46] - 2 39 1 39 31
    4 INDIAN ART [38] - 1 29
    1 ELUSIVE RONNIE [33] - 1
    8 THE DESERT SAINT [32] - 1 37
    3 IMPERIAL SKYLIGHT [28] - 3 30 1 30 35
    10 PREMIER KRUG [28] +5 2 -8 1 -8 21
    5 JOSIAH BARTLETT [25] - 1 24
    9 MISS MOJITO [20] +5 1 24
    6 RITZY WILDCAT [10] - 1

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    ~ NEWC 2:55 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    2 JUST FIVE [21] - 1 31
    3 KNEESY EARSY NOSEY [18] +5 2 9 1 9 12
    5 SANDIES SISTER [14] +5 2 1 16
    1 BLOW YOUR MIND [10] - 1
    4 ORPHANED ANNIE [10] +5 2 -68 1 -68

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    ~ WWCK 2:45 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    9 RAGGLE TAGGLE [35] - 3 32 1 32 26
    7 KERRYS REQUIEM [32] - 1 35
    12 VERLEGEN [30] - 1 29
    1 ACCEDE [26] - 1 21
    6 FORWARD FELINE [25] - 1 18
    11 TO THE POINT [24] - 1 33
    8 NATIVITY [22] - 1 25
    3 BETHIE [9] - 2 1 1 1
    2 BABY IS HERE [6] - 1 14
    4 BETOULA [2] - 1
    10 SHARP DISCOVERY [2] - 3 -4 2 -23 2
    5 DANCING WELCOME [0] - 1 2

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    ~ WDSR 3:05 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    7 ROBIN THE TILL [40] - 1 29
    2 FAULT [34] - 1 43
    4 INSIDE KNOWLEDGE [34] - 1 50
    5 JOE CASTER [34] - 2 29 1 29 27
    3 IMPERIAL GUEST [22] - 1 39
    1 DOC JONES [18] - 1 21
    8 KYLLORIEN [16] +5 2 -16 1 -16 39
    6 LOVE YOU LOUIS [8] - 1 20

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