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Congregation & Seminole (Newmarket, JHM Gosden, June to August).
Both run for owner Princess Haya of Jordan. Congregation is owner bred
in the sense that the Maktoum family own the dam and bred him. Seminole
is a reasonably expensive purchase (140,000 guineas) but not outstanding
given he is a half brother to a Group 1 winner (plus some non-entitities
and minor winners). Seminole would be the first string on jockeys.
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Yougunnabelucky (Redcar, M Johnston, 7f Debuts)
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Isabella Grey (Haydock, KA Ryan, 5f Debuts)
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Darknstormy (Redcar, JR Weymes, Long Shots). Missed a 5f debut when
refused to go into the stalls and now starts at 5f.
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Reel Ale (Lingfield, P Winkworth, Long Shot). The races on
the Lingfield straight turf course have already shown a big stands rail
(high draw) bias in 2008 and this is usual. Mr Winkworth had the 33/1 debut
winner of the last but one race on the course who got to the rail from
stall 10. She was followed home by stalls 11, 3, 12, 9 & 8 and Mawjaat
who was the stall 3 runner obviously has to be marked up for breaking into
that high drawn group. [Mr Winkworth said of that 33/1 winner - Foxtrot
Alpha - before she ran at Royal ascot this week that she needed to improve
by stones to compete and had been helped by a big draw bias on debut.]
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Two of the other three races have been won by Bahamian Ceilidh (drawn 13
of 13 and ran the rail) & Skruton (drawn 10 of 9 with one non-runner
and ran the rail).
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Which means that drawn 13 of 15 Reel Ale might have some sort of chance
but looks a bit 'cheap' and limited on profile even for this low quality
race. But some careful consideration pre-race of the others drawn in double
figures (Positive Opinion, Fong's Alibi, Flute Magic & Hassadin) is
clearly important.
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The likely favourite in Firth Of Forth who is in stall 2. He is a small,
neat model who has managed some early season places but isn't growing and
is vulnerable to anything with a bit more size. If you look at the video
of his last race the last two furlongs show him being eaten up by two,
less knowing, rivals who are just plain better. He did sort of front run
in that race by running the rail on his own. He really needs to get out
quickly and over towards the stands' rail if the normal bias is in play
because he doesn't have a lot in hand if there is a competitive type in
the field. On profile nothing stands out as an obvious candidate and John
Dunlop's Perfect Shot comes closest and ought to place at least from a
reasonable draw in 10.
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