British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season Race Preview

British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season

Racing Preview - July 5th

Races :-

289: Beverley 2:20, 7.5f Claimer (5)

290: Beverley 2:55, 5f Maiden (4)

291: Carlisle 7:35, 5f Auction (5)

292: Leicester 2:35, 6f Seller (6)

293: Nottingham 7:20, 5.1f Auction (5)

294: Nottingham 7:50, 5.1f Maiden (5)

July 5th Summary :

Some interesting races at Sandown and Salisbury yesterday although not too heartening if you write previews that miss the green and land in the water. Repeat to yourself "It's a long game, it's never over..". Michael Stoute doesn't get 7f debuts winners before August and the majority come in late September and October. Backing the debuts earlier in the year won't get you very far in the long term and a loss prety much ensured. The last 7f debut winner he had this early was with City Of Troy in 2005 who started at 8/1 despite being well touted as a high class runner. He ran like a typical inexperienced Stoute debut, losing ground at the start and so on but won comfortably.
Zacinto came with a huge reputation and was back down close to evens before the withdrawals (Group 1 entry Millharbour & Sixties Swinger were withdrawn just before the race due to the firm ground) and odds-on in the race. He looked much fitter than a normal Stoute newcomer (Picture), think of the likes of Tartan Bearer and the 'Doctors' in 2007 who didn't win FTO. He was as typically immature mentally in the preliminaries and this lack of a mental edge (Picture) is presumably part of Stoute's methods of wanting horses to develop with racing and not going sour on it.
With the non appearance of Granski, Millharbour & Sixties Swinger he had a less than tough group to beat. Mons Calpe (Picture) was too mentally young to perform and moved like an 8f+ horse in the straight. You suspect he's too slow for this 7f on quicker ground and more a long term 12f+ 3yo handicap prospect. Seminole is on the small side although well built and looks just ordinary maiden winner class and always vulnerable to a slightly better newcomer (never mind a Zacinto). He and his short and podgy sidekick Flintlock (Picture) combined to set the pace and only Zacinto travelled comfortably just behind it in third and only he got past them in the straight until Flintlock's late fade. Paul Cole's other runner was the very taking Storm Mist (Picture) who looks another develop project and clearly had no idea what he was here for. But, plenty of physical size and scope to develop and
So, Zacinto wasn't beating a strong group & 33/1 third Oasis Knight has shown little over 6f in two previous runs although a good size and build if too compact in set-up (Picture). But, he did win by eight lengths although ridden out by his jockey to achive that. He has less fitness scope to improve than a normal Stoute newcomer and was competent enough here. Obviously up to winning a Conditions race next time but the bigger question is how he wll fare in the later Group races.
In the Dragon Stakes you only had to see White Shift in the pre-parade to know she wasn't going to win. She had gone back to looking edgy and under-the-weather as she had at Ascot and nothing like she did 5 days before at Windsor. She perked up a bit once saddled but like a fighter getting of fthe canvas to tell the ref he's fine it wasn't convincing. The previous day Linda Stubbs' Saxford had dragged her daughter around in preliminaries with a real let-me-at-them attitude for the whole time. He was free in the race but kept going to win over 6f and was still at it after the race. Russet Reward is a similar type physically (you can tell a Stubbs' solid cheap buy looking at it and learn a lot from why they get competitive bargains) although lacking Saxford's range in movement.
White Shift and Russet Reward duelled for the lead so hard they were fading after 3f. As usually happens in those circumstances the horse able to go with the pace but sit 2-3 lengths off it usually wins as they inherit the lead past the faders and then hold on against the closers. Presumably on of the things the 'in running' people know. Light The Fire would come second to going-day White Shift in the Powerball stakes and track the pace best and went two lengths clear and held on. Moss Likely is a typical light framed Channon early 2yo and couldn't go the pace. April Pride has changed shape as she has grown and become taller, lighter made and a bit leggy. She found this 5f too quick and only got into he race as the best of the closers and confirm the view she isn't a 5f type and perhaps not even a fast 6f one.
At Salisbury the Nursery was won by a lurker in the low weights from the two top weight colts with more size. That runner - Ridgeway Silver - was the only one not to be paddock reviewed and assessed prior to the day. That runner was assisted by a good 7lb apprentice and being allowed to set their own pace on the rail. Finnegan McCool got loose before the race and reared over but ran well and looked like he could win an average nursery off 82.
Servoca was held up at the back which was a disadvantage and made reasonable progrees throught o third before stalling and losing ground on the fornt two in the last furlong. If we go back to the Newmarket Conditions race at the Craven Meeting in April Barry Hills has introduced a variety of Group winners and high class juveniles at the meeting in recent years. This year he ran three in the race with Servoca (struggling to win a Nursery off OR85 on this evidence and would need a 'Captain Marvelous' type turnaround to prove useful) finishing second, Ouqba (small and limited by that) placed second as short priced favourite on his later run & Senatorial who won a maiden 4TO prior to being well beaten in a Pontefract Conditions race this week. Perhaps he just didn't have the qualit yin the early runners this year.

Race Virtual Paddocks

FTO P&L Qualifiers

Iachimo (Nottingham 7:50, KR Burke, 5-6f Debuts). The wait for Mr Burke to produce one good enough on debut continues and is well overdue. This one is a 54,000gns purchase out of a small, but usable, sprint 2yo mare and by the sire Sakhee. Other than the William Haggas filly Jargelle who hasn't been reviewed on course it looks a weak group and beatable by a solid newcomer.
Richard Fahey is in profit with both his 5f and 6f debuts so far. He can't have limitless supllies of solid 2yos and there must be some moderate ones to run. His first 8 debuts at 5f to May 19th produced 4 winners, 3 places and Olympic Dream's woeful effort in the Brocklesby (he's disappeared along with Tim Easterby's Diamond Blade after that March 22nd effort - Easterby's last one of this type was Hamish MacGonagall so perhaps not give up on Diamond Blade yet). The only two 5f debuts since were in mid June and both were poor although one of those placed STO at Thirsk this week over 6f.
Fahey runs newcomers Paddy Bear (4,500gns purchase) in the auction event at Carlisle and Diggeratt (retained for 10,000 as a 2yo by a non 5f sire) at Nottingham. Stable jockey Hanagan is at Carlisle and rides Paddy Bear.
Miss Scarlet (Carlisle, KA Ryan, 5f Debuts)
Also of interest is what Saeed Bin Suroor is doing with Global City who is only the second ever debut runner at Beverley for Godolphin. He cost just 12,000gns as a yearling but made a whopping £200,000 at 2yo despite just a so-so pedigree. He is by the first season sire Exceed And Excel who has a good record to date after a sluggish start to the season including the Windsor Castle winner Flashmans Papers and the Norfolk Stakes second Spin Cycle. The majority of Godolphin debuts are at Newmarket or the major tracks. The debuts outside of these courses are, for the most part, ordinary types and handicappers at best. The debuts at Leicester & Nottingham in recent years have been a motley bunch, despite the odd short priced debut winner, for example.

	~ BVLY 2:20 ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
2	JUST FIVE	[31]	-	3		27	2	-500	29
1	CALLEY HO	[30]	-8	4		36	2	19	18
8	STRICTLY ROYAL	[30]	+4	3		-30	2	-50	34
10	BLUSHER	[26]	+7	5		22	2	7	34
7	DEBBYS BOY	[24]	+4	4		15	3	-30	21
11	CHERRY BELLE	[23]	+9	3		9	3	-16	30
12	DISPOL DIVA	[19]	+9	5		7	2	-38	19
13	KNEESY EARSY NOSEY	[18]	+9	5		9	1	9	29
4	HOLD THE BUCKS	[17]	+2	3		8	2	-27	21
3	DARKNSTORMY	[16]	+2	2		-41	1	-41	28
5	HOLST	[6]	+2	3		-11	2	-65	18
9	SCARLET BLADE	[4]	+6	5		-6	4	-15	25
6	KINGAROO	[0]	+2	3		-26	1	-26

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	~ BVLY 2:55 ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
5	TOTAL GALLERY	[54]	-	3		56	2	40	21
2	CARNABY HAGGERSTON	[42]	-	3		37	2	30	33
4	LUCKY ART	[39]	-	2		34	1	34	30
6	GLOBAL CITY	[34]	+4	1					49
7	INDONESIAN IDOL	[30]	+4	1					35
1	BATTLE OF HASTINGS	[26]	-	3		16	1	16	32
3	CLEARD FOR ACTION	[21]	-	2		-28	1	-28	28
10	GEE GINA	[17]	+9	1					19
9	ARRIVA LA DIVA	[12]	+9	1					29
8	ISHIQUICK	[8]	+5	2		-24	1	-24	18
11	SAMPOWER ROSE	[5]	+9	1					69

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	~ CARL 7:35 ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
3	TORI'S SECRET	[29]	-	2		23	1	23	34
6	METROLAND	[27]	+3	5		33	3	22	38
5	PADDY BEAR	[24]	+2	1					32
7	MISS SCARLET	[24]	+3	1					33
9	WHISPERING SPIRIT	[21]	+5	1					25
1	COME AND GO	[14]	-	2		5	1	5	34
4	FITZOLINI	[10]	+2	5		18	1	18
8	RIO POMBA	[9]	+5	1					69
2	NINO ZACHETTI	[8]	-	1					14
10	FUTURE GEM	[8]	+7	1					4

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	~ LEIC 2:35 ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
7	MEYDAN GROOVE	[22]	-	4		23	3	21	36
6	GABORONE	[14]	-	2		7	1	7	34
1	BOLD ACCOUNT	[8]	-5	3		5	1	5	35
8	TILLAGIRL	[5]	-	2		-10	1	-10	36
2	DEAN IARRACHT	[2]	-5	1
4	BABY SPECIAL	[1]	-	3		-16	1	-16	36
3	FORZANDO BLOOM	[0]	-5	7		-4	6	-7	27
5	FRAME AND COVER	[0]	-	2		-30	1	-30	27

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	~ NOTT 7:20 ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
8	AMOSITE	[34]	-	4		38	4	-36	30
3	VOULEZVOUS	[33]	-8	4		34	2	26	32
6	SILLS VINCERO	[30]	-4	2		21	1	21	44
5	RED ROSANNA	[28]	-4	2		26	1	26	37
9	LADY MASTER	[26]	-	7					29
1	ONE COOL KITTY	[24]	-8	2		18	1	18	22
2	THE MAGIC OF RIO	[24]	-8	5		25	4	19	40
4	DIGGERATT	[18]	-4	1					32
7	AMBER SUNSET	[18]	-	2		19	1	19	24
10	MISS LEONA	[0]	-	3		-11	2	-32

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	~ NOTT 7:50 ~	Today's	Race		Best	Run		FTO	Run
	Name	[PRF]	WCor	Run	Class Level	Best [Est]	Best Run	FTO [EST]	Ave	% FTO
6	JARGELLE	[32]	-	2		31	1	31	40
3	IACHIMO	[30]	-5	1					35
1	ABU DERBY	[20]	-5	3		18	2	9	23
5	GEMINI JIVE	[20]	-	3		16	2	-75	22
2	FYELEHK	[17]	-5	3		15	1	15	20
8	LEFTONTHESHELF	[15]	-	1					29
7	JIGGALONG	[9]	-	1					36
4	MEYDAN STYLE	[5]	-5	2		-26	1	-26

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