British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
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Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - July 19th 
Races :-
  • 362: Haydock 6:40, 5f Nursery (5)
  • 363: Haydock 7:10, 6f Maiden (5)
  • 364: Lingfield 7:20, 7f Maiden (5)
  • 365: Lingfield 7:50, 6f Nursery (5)
  • 366: Newbury 1:50, 7f Conditions (3)
  • 367: Newbury 3:25, 5.1f Auction (2) "The Super Sprint"
  • 368: Newmarket July 4:10, 6f Maiden (4)
  • 369: Ripon 2:30, 5f Maiden Fillies' (4)
  • 370: Ripon 3:00, 6f Seller (6)

  •   July 19th Summary : 
     
    • .The Super Sprint is an 'Auction' race in that the weights carried vary depending upon how much the horse cost at the sales. To qualify for the race the horses must have been sold at auction at one of the main sales companies in Britain and Ireland. This takes in Tattersalls (HQ at Newmarket plus an Irish part), Doncaster Bloodstock Auctions (DBS), Goffs (based in Ireland & recently merged with DBS) and Brightwells (sell at Ascot racecourse stables). The conditions of the race further limit the top price paid for any of the runners to be 48,000 guineas. It is therefore aimed at horses ranging from the lowest purchase prices up to just above a good 'average price range of 30,000 gns but keeing out the really expensive types.
    • The horses carry 1Lbs less for each 3,000 gns less than 48,000 they cost but get penalties (extra weight to carry) for wins at Group/Pattern level (8lbs, none in this field), Listed level (i.e. not part of the Pattern Race set, 5lbs & Bahamian Babe carries 8-3 rather than the 7-12 her low sales price would dictate) & Class 2 races (3lbs). 
    • The maximum weight a colt could carry is 9 stones and 3 lbs (9-3 or 129lbs) and the topweight is Finnegan McCool who cost 40,000gns and gets a 2Lbs allowance. Fillies who cost 48,000 would carry 8-12 plus any penalties. The topweight female here is Jargelle on 8-6 having cost 28,000 gns. 
    • If you look at the range of weights you will see that overall we have a field biased towards lower prices in the range and, essentially, an Olympic final for precocious sprint 2yos. It rarely produces runners with longer term futures in Group races, even at 2yo, let alone as older horses. The exceptions have tended to be fillies of real 5f mould like Lyric Fantasy & Superstar Leo. A typical rating for the winner would be in the OR90s and few of the field would be up to competing to win in Listed class.
    • The Virtual Paddock for the race shows 17 of the 23 horses. If you look at the pictures you will see the bigger colts and the type of money those physical types fetch. Towards the bottom of the weights you get the smaller and lighhter build fillies who mostly cost below average prices and are examples of how a few of that type develop to compete well early at 2yo. If you could distil why this small set of fillies have proved usable and the majority have proved duff you could make a fine living as a real bloodstock agent.
    • One other point to note about the race is that the larger field usually fans out across the track and runners who run closer to either rail often have an advantage. Looking at the last 10 winners the ones who won from middle draws were the real high class types in the context of this type of race (Flanders, Superstar Leo, Good Girl & & Elhamri). During that period we have see two wins from stall 1 including a 100/1 success for Lady Livius which owed an awful lot to that draw. Three other wins have been for horses drawn 23 (twice) & 21 of whom Presto Vento in 2002 ran so close to the stands' rail on her own that no-one noticed her until she'd won.
    • A constant theme recently will be how well the Royal Ascot race for stands up. Pennys Gift had shown something different in her wins before going to Ascot by winning comfortably and not struggling to win. The 6f Albany Stakes she ran in was not strong form in Group terms but she was close to the lead after 5f and lost ground to the 2nd winner and 3rd through the later stages of the race. Off a low weight she comes out clear on ratings even allowing for a small downgrade of the Albany Stakes form. None of the other runners have shown any examples of anything oustandingly different to suggest they are higher class (a change-of-pace, big winning distances, etc) and just hints of extra to come. Mullglen has shown real improvement in the last two runs and hasn't been pressed. As a cheap (8,000 gns) colt he gets a lowish weight and should compete well but from a draw of 8 you would wnat the jocky to go to the far side rather than sit mid-track. 
    • Caranbola has always shown an ability to apply her effort for longer than a filly of her profile since her earliest runs. She does appear to have the pace to track 5f in lesser grade and off bottom weight should be staying on well in the final furlong and ok each way value. Of the others you would pick out Pure Poetry and the runner with the size to improve but this type often gets mugged by the nippy fillies in this race. Bahamian Babe is likely to press the pace but from a high draw she should be able to get near to the stands' rail. She has shown something different with a strong will to win and to respond to challenges in the later stages of the race. Her balanced athleticism for her smaller size allowed her to keep rolling along at York's fast track to hold off Langs Lash and the other closers. She should run well her but you feel that on good ground and on a track that is a bit longer than 5f she will be reeled in later in the race unless the stands' rail strip confers a real advantage.
    • The 7f conditions race at Newbury looks an opportunity to take on the Royal Ascot form. Awinnersgame has a 'Coventry 6th' label on him but a few suspect points. If you look behind him at Ascot (where he was 20/1) there is I Am The Best who isn't group class and has been beaten since. Shaweel is next in and in a similar position to him compared with the York maiden they ran in before Ascot (as is the third Lord Shanakill). He ran 3rd to Firth Of Forth in a Group 2 at Newmarket to Firth Of Fifth but you have to think he didn't improve and his placing defines the form at Newmarket as low level. Add in the issues of the stable having had a break with runners due to a 'bug' in the yard and him being just a neat, medium, physical type and you should be looking to oppose him with something. Oratory seems a good option but if the Paddock Review is positive about the other once raced winnars then they are other possibles.
    • At Lingfield the races are both on the straight turf track and the flag is waving as clearly as possible that you have to take into account the stands' rail bias on the course. Horses that race on the rail in the second half of the race can have a huge advantage (say 5 lengths and 10-15 ratings points, at least). This means that the 17 runners in the 7f maiden are going to include a good number forced to race midfield and having no chance unless they are really very high class which is mighty unlikely. Kentish Dream comes out on top of the profile and has a good draw in 14. His Newmarket 2nd on debut is just ordinary form though and not high class. He got a B2yoR rating of just 29 for trundling through to second in a slow time over 6f from the ordinary Ouqba. He steps up to 7f and should be able to rate around 40 which would need a little above average debut runner to better but wouldn't make him value at short odds.
    • The newcomers don't include a full package of higher class background with ready-on-debut trainer. Henry Cecil seems to take debuts more easy with his runners these days and On Our Way (ok draw in 10) should be a future winner but a little whort of the level needed to win FTO. Roger Charlton likes his runners to improve from debut but has a lot of good quality and the preparation gets them ready enough to show up well if the ability is there (as Broad Cairn showed yesterday when backed each-way at 50/1 to 20/1 before a 2nd in alrage field FTO yesterday). He runs Perception who has quite a stout pedigree but is well drawn and would need to be that high class to give Kentish Dream a race from stall 6.
    • Add in the well drawn Reaction and a solid newcomer in Admiral Sandhoe and a race set-up where an each-way option against the likely short price favourite is a sound choice.
    • The Nursery at Lingfield has two previous winners at the top of the weights on typical winner ORs of 85 (for Godolphin) and 80 (for a smaller filly from a 2yo stable). The race is another example of why topweights can compete well. The other 7 runners have managed a couple of weak, volunteer, thirds in maidens and a 2nd place in a seller between them and haven't looks like 'winners waiting to happen' and Paddock Review has mostly confirmed them as moderate. They run of ORs ranging from 60 to 72 which is the seller to moderate/average interchange level. Unless some of them have improvement to make they are too close the winners and hence the topweights go well. 
    • Dubai's Gazal is small an unappealing and needed all of the uphill 5.7f at Bath to get to the front in what has proved an over-rated race. Over 6f on a faster course she doesn't appeal. Backing Khor Dubai at a short price doesn't appeal either although he is the best type. The only runner in the lower weights who makes some appeal is Black N Brew who has had a typical John Best development in that you can't quite see the pattern. But he's ok to win off OR67 in an ordinary race and has underperformed notably in two of his runs by losing a lot of ground at the start (once a stumble and not fully the horse's fault). He's not well drawn in 2 and the lack of starting snap is an issue but the Best runners often seem to win when no-one expects it so looking for nice Prescott or Stoute type progressions isn't going to work with his 2yos.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Highkingofireland (Haydock 7:10, KR Burke, 5-6f Debuts) - NON RUNNER
    • Run For The Hills (Newmarket, JHM Gosden, June To August debuts). A quite strong looking maiden with Rileyskeepingfaith the biggest in the field for his Ascot debut although not looking fit (also a bit short of quality despite the size). Ran well given that background but likely to set just an average standard for the newcomers to reach. Gosden had a good FTO winner at the course yesterday but it can be difficult to divine which are likely to be the better ones.
    • Also worth noting in the Newmarket race is Ayrus who is a $200,000 2yo purchase and Bryan Meehan usually sends better types to debut at Newmarket. In a slow season so far his only early runner at the Rowley course was Hosanna who has proved a limited filly in two later runs. He has run two at the July course in the last 10 days with Whispering Angel 3rd in the 7f Maiden at the July Meeting and a winner at Newbury yesterday. Impressionist Art was only 8/1 (shorter than a normal debut for him) for the maiden dillies' event that Gosden won yesterday but ran unplaced but seems likely to prove a later winner.
    • The race also features a Godolphin debut runner with the home bred Ajjaadd and Jeremy Noseda runs Medlock for the Coolmore trinity. The Suroor debut runners so far have not been as tightly wound as they have been in some previous years and only the first two have placed (by the most obvious early speed types they have run). Mr Noseda has not had a debut runner since June 6th and closed his stable for a short period after he felt his 2yos ran moderately at Royal Ascot.
    • Also in the race in Mark Johnston's Crackdown who ran 20/1 3rd on debut at Nottingham. The trainer has had a slow season and the most recent 2yo runners have not competed particularly strongly. He has three runners today and Crackdown ran in an interesting race FTO. The winner has run in better races since but has been well beaten. The second that day was a filly the Callaghan stable think is high class who has won a Lingfield maiden in a fast time and been unplaced in the Cherry Hinton since. Behind him were horses who have placed plus two taking winners over 7f with Oratory (runs at Newbury) and Kings Troop (a typical development type for Henry Cecil whose debut runners are less wound up than they used to be).

    ~ HYDK 6:40 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 SUNSET CREST [] - 3 34 2 26 25
    2 KHEYLIDE [] +4 7 35 5 -16 34
    3 LA BRIGITTE [] +7 5 32 3 19 30
    4 TITUS ANDRONICUS [] +10 4 23 3 10 33
    5 ALPHABETH [] +10 7 23 4 -6 34
    6 FUAIGH MOR [] +20 6 26 2 20
    7 RIO COBOLO [] +21 4 18 1 18 12
    8 WIGAN PIER [] +23 5 14 3 -8 18

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    ~ HYDK 7:10 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 BECAUSEWECAN [] - 3 33 1 33 38
    2 HIGHKINGOFIRELAND [] - 1 35
    3 IVOR NOVELLO [] - 2 -15 1 -15 34
    4 JUL'S LAD [] - 2 17 1 17 12
    5 PLAYFELLOW [] - 1 42
    6 PRIME MOOD [] - 1 35
    7 SHIFTING GOLD [] - 2 -22 1 -22 33
    8 SILENT HERO [] - 3 6 2 -24 42
    9 WHISKY JACK [] - 2 35 1 35 30
    10 QUEEN SALLY [] +5 2 25 1 25 29
    11 RED ROSANNA [] +5 3 26 1 26 37
    12 SHANAVAZ [] +5 1 31

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    ~ LING 7:20 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    6 KENTISH DREAM [43] - 2 29 1 29
    13 REACTION [38] - 2 26 1 26 34
    11 ON OUR WAY [36] - 1 47
    16 PERCEPTION [36] +5 1 37
    1 ADMIRAL SANDHOE [34] - 1 32
    7 KERSIVAY [31] - 1 40
    9 MYTHICAL BLUE [28] - 2 28 1 28 12
    12 PERFECT SHOT [24] - 2 18 1 18 36
    17 RED REEF [22] +5 2 10 3 10 32
    8 MFI'VE [19] - 1 20
    15 ISABELLA ROMEE [18] +5 2 11 1 11 28
    14 TASTE THE WINE [16] - 2 -2 1 -2 36
    5 HASSADIN [12] - 2 -22 1 -22 22
    10 OIL MAN [11] - 2 5 1 5 29
    4 DAILY PLANET [5] - 3 -8 2 -90 31
    3 CRYSTALLIZE [4] - 2 -32 1 -32 22
    2 AIN'T TALKIN' [3] - 3 -15 2 -30 4

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    ~ LING 7:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    5 BLACK N BREW [50] - 4 16 2 1 31
    1 KHOR DUBAI [48] -18 4 52 2 27 49
    2 DUBAI'S GAZAL [45] -13 4 42 2 40 34
    8 THE SAUCY SNIPE [45] +5 4 22 1 22 29
    3 HERRING SENIOR [42] -5 4 31 3 -7 36
    4 SCRAPPER SMITH [41] -2 4 25 2 -27 36
    6 CALL ME COURAGEOUS [38] - 4 21 2 16 22
    9 ELUSIVE RONNIE [36] +6 5 12 3 3 39
    7 DALEPAK FLYER [35] +3 4 16 2 13

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    ~ NWBY 1:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    4 ORATORY [56] - 3 35 2 26 35
    2 DOCTOR CRANE [55] - 2 38 1 38 43
    1 AWINNERSGAME [54] - 4 59 3 52 37
    3 FIREBET [48] - 2 38 1 38 25
    7 FLYING LADY [48] +8 4 47 2 25 34
    5 POLISH PRIDE [39] +5 4 32 2 23 23
    6 KAISER WILLIE [8] +6 1 31

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    ~ NWBY 3:25 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    20 PENNY'S GIFT [71] -112 5 60 4 28 35
    12 MULLGLEN [66] -116 5 46 4 3 18
    23 CARANBOLA [64] -110 6 49 5 26 23
    14 BAHAMIAN BABE [62] -115 5 50 3 36 32
    7 SENOR MIRASOL [61] -120 3 51 2 31 33
    2 PURE POETRY [60] -127 3 52 2 16 35
    4 HARWALLA [60] -124 6 54 4 36 38
    10 DOUGHNUT [55] -117 7 45 6 34 35
    15 REBECCA DE WINTER [55] -115 4 43 3 32 35
    17 MOSS LIKELY [54] -114 6 46 3 4 34
    19 RAGGLE TAGGLE [54] -113 6 42 5 32 34
    13 SPRING TALE [52] -116 5 40 3 24 29
    6 ASAINT NEEDS BRASS [51] -121 5 44 2 32 34
    8 JARGELLE [50] -118 3 33 2 31 40
    3 SHAMPAGNE [49] -127 6 50 3 40 36
    5 POCKET'S PICK [48] -124 4 44 3 -40 38
    16 FAVOURITE GIRL [48] -114 6 35 5 13 18
    9 RIFLESSIONE [44] -118 5 38 2 10 21
    11 LOVE YOU LOUIS [44] -116 4 34 3 18 30
    1 FINNEGAN MCCOOL [42] -127 5 41 4 24 34
    21 INFAMOUS ANGEL [42] -111 3 33 2 17 35
    18 THE MAGIC OF RIO [41] -114 6 28 5 19 40
    22 SOUTER'S SISTER [38] -111 6 32 5 21 35

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    ~ NMKJ 4:10 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 AGAINST THE RULES [] - 1 6
    2 AJJAADD [] - 1 49
    3 ALMAZAR [] - 1 36
    4 AYRUS [] - 1 35
    5 CRACKDOWN [] - 2 38 1 38 38
    6 ELNAWIN [] - 1 35
    7 EVERAARD [] - 1 27
    8 JACOBITE PRINCE [] - 2 5 1 5 28
    9 MEDLOCK [] - 1 37
    10 RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH [] - 2 41 1 41 34
    11 RUN FOR THE HILLS [] - 1 43
    12 YEOMAN BLAZE [] - 4 21 3 7 34
    13 CLODAZONE [] +5 1 22
    14 HELPMERONDA [] +5 2 14 1 14
    15 LADY ANGELICA [] +5 1 9

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    ~ RIPN 2:30 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 DARK VELVET [] - 3 -6 2 -25 14
    2 IMPRESSIBLE [] - 3 31 2 25 14
    3 INTHAWAIN [] - 1 34
    4 ISHE MAC [] - 3 31 2 -8
    5 MARY MASON [] - 2 5 1 5 25
    6 MIDNIGHT FANTASY [] - 1 20
    7 MINOTAURIOUS [] - 3 42 2 -1 35
    8 MONACO MISTRESS [] - 1 30
    9 PETER'S GIFT [] - 3 33 1 33 33
    10 SALSA STAR [] - 3 51 2 28 32
    11 SIRENUSE [] - 2 15 1 15 35
    12 SMELLY CAT [] - 2 -75 1 -75 18
    13 SOVIET RHYTHM [] - 2 25 1 25 16

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    ~ RIPN 3:00 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 HEAVEN OR HELL [] -1 8 19 5 4 30
    2 DEAN IARRACHT [] +5 2 3 1 3
    3 DOUGIE PEEL [] +5 3 14 2 -55 33
    4 ERNIES KEEP [] +5 4 1 3 -80 15
    5 HOLST [] +5 4 -11 2 -65 18
    6 INCY WINCY [] +5 3 -23 1 -23
    7 JUST FIVE [] +5 4 27 2 -500 29
    8 QUADRIFOLIO [] +5 4 -24 1 -24 29
    9 ROYAL PREMIUM [] +5 3 -30 2 -90
    10 SHADOW BAY [] +5 5 23 3 -30 34
    11 THE CANNY DOVE [] +5 4 6 1 6 31
    12 CHARLY'S ROSE [] +10 3 -22 1 -22 30
    13 DISPOL KINTIE [] +10 3 -3 1 -3 19
    14 KEEN RABBIT [] +10 3 -8 1 -8
    15 RUBY'S SONG [] +10 3 -73 1 -73
    16 SHARP DISCOVERY [] +10 5 -4 2 -23
    17 TRANSFORMATION [] +10 6 -4 1 -4 28

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