British 2yo Racing - 2008 Season
<< 2008 Season
Racing Previews Results

Racing Preview - August 23rd 
Races :-
  • 569: Beverley 1:50, 7.5f Maiden Fillies' (4)
  • 570: Goodwood 3:45, 7f Fillies' Group 3 (1) "Prestige Stakes"
  • 571: Newmarket July 12:50, 6f Maiden (4)
  • 572: Newmarket July 1:25, 6f Fillies' Group 2 (1) "Lowther Stakes"
  • 573: Newmarket July 2:35, 7f Nursery (2)
  • 574: Newmarket July 4:10, 6f Sales Conditions (2) "'St Leger' Consolation Race"
  • 575: Windsor 5:20, 6f Novice (5)
  • 576: Windsor 5:50, 5f Seller (6)

  •   August 23rd Summary : 
     
    • The Newmarket card includes the 6f Group 2 Lowther Stakes for fillies which has been transferred from York with new sponsors. Three previous group winners in the field with two carrying 3lb penalties. The top estimates for the fillies are around 60 mark at present and this race will hopefully separate out the 1-3 fillies with longer term prospects from the useful set. Please Sing & African Skies appeal most to press for that role and Danidh Dubai may run well again in Group compamy at longer odds.
    • At Goodwood the fillies feature again with the 7f Group 3 Prestige Stakes. In general this looks a less solid group than the Lowther and the once raced winners Fantasia & Faraway Flower (both not reviewed as yet) have a mostly ordinary set of fillies to improve past. The exception is probably Qalahari who scorched away from her field on debut and was well clear into the final furlong before fading and getting caught late. Like many of her trainer's juveniles her second run was less good and she plugged on into second. Returned to Bath's 5.7f and frontrunning she again scorched away and finished the race off well to win by a long way in a quick time (presumably on concrete going). The horses she beat were garbage so the winning distance isn't a good indicator but the time and manner of her win suggested a Listed class filly at least. But, she steps ups to 7f and has looked best making the pace. She would have been interesting in the Lowther if it had been at York and on firmer going and will she see out 7f here?
    • The 'DBS 'St Leger Sale' Consolation Race at Newmarket is interesting. This sale is targeted at sprint 2yos and there were around 550 yearlings catalogued in 2007. The first division race for graduates of the sale was run at Newmarket on Friday with a 20 runner field and Elnawin winning from Bonnie Charlie, both trained by Richard Hannon. They were clear of the others and probably he two Group class runners in the field. Elnawin is another good 2yo for his sire Elnadim following Golden Acer (Hannon) in 2005, Wi Dud & Caldra in 2006 and Elna Bright (Hannon again) last season.
    • So, of the 550 yearlings the best 20 made it to that race and the consolation race is for the runners with the highest official ratings who didn't make the 20 for the top race. This year we have just 17 runners in the consolation race with just two previous winners and the top Official Rating around 76 which is midway in the Interchange Range between moderate and average to better types. Think about that. Where are the other 510 or so yearlings? What have they produced in terms of winners and what will they? The message is that when buying at the sales, even a sprint 2yo oriented one, you are sifting through an awful lot of not very much to find the usable and, occasionally, the better class.
    • One thought from the paddock reviewing of the Gimcrack field was that Art Connoisseur has looked like a different horse on each of his three runs in Britain. On debut (Picture) he looked young mentally and while tall, not that well built and not particularly likely to be higher class and not top class. At Ascot he had developed remarkably well from that debut (Picture) and had strengthened up and added a let-me-at-them attitude. He still looked a bit narrowed bodied and needed to develop further but a pretty convincing Coverntry winner in terms of being able to develop further. In that context the tame effort in Ireland when thumped by Mastercrafteman and struggling to hold off the small Bushranger seemed odd.
    • Then, put in this field (Picture) and he looked small in comparison to Marine Boy (tall but lightly built) & Deposer (possibly the best type and ran like a horse that needs 7f+ and must be better than he showed) for example. The coat condition and competitive attitude were muted as well. Easy to put a line through his chances for the day and to see his limitations against a full field like this. 
    • The answer to the VP test set on Thursday is that 20/1 winner is horse number 6 - Tombov - who is in the top right hand corner on the upper line of three. In terms of strength, depth through his body and length of body to make a good stride length for 7f he does stand out. At the second level of condition he had his coat in very good order and a positive energy attitude while still listening to his handler. If you went into the race with a Profile of what to expect he gets flagged up as better than expected and the traders can then do their bit with that info.
    • To quickly summarise the other 5 in the VP. Top left is the filly Acting Lady (8) who was making her debut and one of three runners for the baffling Mr Best. An ok size but not ready in any sense for the race. Moderate fitness, immature & clinging attitude and poor coat for example. Ran ok in midfield and has the size to improve to fit somewhere in the OR65-74 bracket. Centre top row is the colt Ashwinder (3) who had been 3rd in a Newmarket seller previously. Notably small, lacking body length, peculiar shape with a belly and below average mover.
    • Bottom left is the topweight colt (i.e. the most expensive) Abner who is laughably tiny. Compact in body length as well and just too damn small. Middle bottom is the filly Cabo Polonio (9) and a fine chestnut coat. But shiny hair wont fill in the gaps of being small, narrow & underpowered and abeing a clining mouse in attitude. Bottom right (no number) is the lightweight & somewhat scrawny filly Buckers Beauty.
    • Here's a thought. If you read the result of that Folkestone race without any reference to what the horses look like it's easy to think it is puzzling. The winner is 20/1 after a nothing debut and is by a sire who won the French Champion hurdle. Ok, you respect the trainer and that sire is a full brother to a Group 1 winner on the flat and has a high class German staying pedigree (which that nation is very good at) so some positives. But Buckers Beauty & Cabo Polonio, the two lightweight girls started at 16/1 along with Acting Lady (and John Best gets very rare debut runners). Ashwinder was at 11/2 while at least the pony sized Abner was at 25/1 (probably helped by being trained by Willian Haggas who judges horses properly and is a realist about them).
    • But, put all of that stuff to one side and just roll the horses up into powerballs and pick out the one with the most power and check it is ready enough to show it and the result itself isn't puzzling. What on earth Tombov is doing at 20/1 when Ashwinder is 11/2 and has to give him weight? The real point is that Paddock information, both on physical type and condition for the day are essential to betting in all  races. With 2yo maidens it is more than essential (whatever that means) and the lack of form for the 'Market' to work from means there are many opportunities to find value bets.

    Race Virtual Paddocks FTO P&L Qualifiers
    • Huntdown  (Newmarket 12:50, JHM Gosdwn, June to August debuts)

    ~ BVLY 1:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 AMBA [] - 1
    2 AMETHYST DAWN [] - 3 26 2 14 18
    3 CHILLY FILLY [] - 2 19 1 19 38
    4 CHORAL FESTIVAL [] - 2 7 1 7 25
    5 DIESIS OF CLOYNE [] - 2 13 1 13 35
    6 GAME ROSEANNA [] - 3 22 2 -10 15
    7 IZZY LOU [] - 2 27 1 27 33
    8 LE PETIT VIGIER [] - 1
    9 LOMICA [] - 1 21
    10 MONEYCANTBUYMELOVE [] - 2 30 1 30 32
    11 SARDAN DANSAR [] - 3 11 2 -4 25
    12 SMOKE ME A KIPPER [] - 4 1 3 -4 25
    13 STACEYS GIRL [] - 2 -75 1 -75 18

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    ~ GDWD 3:45 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 APRIL PRIDE [] - 7 55 4 36 35
    2 FANTASIA [] - 2 38 1 38 32
    3 FARAWAY FLOWER [] - 2 45 1 45 37
    4 LAHALEEB [] - 6 52 5 -2 34
    5 PACHATTACK [] - 3 38 2 21
    6 QALAHARI [] - 4 52 3 41 32
    7 ROSE DIAMOND [] - 4 47 3 31 37
    8 SERADIM [] - 3 31 1 31 36
    9 SHAWS DIAMOND [] - 4 34 3 -9
    10 SOUTER'S SISTER [] - 8 36 7 21 35

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    ~ NMKJ 12:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 ABSENT PLEASURE [] - 2 14 1 14 35
    2 BOLD HAWK [] - 2 5 1 5 28
    3 CAPEABILITY [] - 2 9 1 9 34
    4 CHEVIOT [] - 1 42
    5 DESTINY QUEST [] - 1 32
    6 DONTFORGETURSHOVEL [] - 1
    7 HULA KING [] - 1 35
    8 HUNTDOWN [] - 1 43
    9 INVINCIBLE HEART [] - 2 23 1 23 28
    10 KINGSHIP SPIRIT [] - 3 44 2 23 37
    11 SIR ISAAC [] - 1 40
    12 ADORN [] +5 1 37
    13 BROUGHTONS PARADIS [] +5 1 13
    14 SIOUX RISING [] +5 1 32
    15 VALKYRIE [] +5 1 22

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    ~ NMKJ 1:25 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 LANGS LASH [] - 4 60 3 39 22
    2 PLEASE SING [] - 4 60 3 36 34
    3 AFRICAN SKIES [] +3 4 58 3 40 33
    4 ART PRINCESS [] +3 5 56 4 38 37
    5 BAILEYS CACAO [] +3 4 60 3 40 35
    6 DANEHILL DESTINY [] +3 4 55 2 45 40
    7 DANIDH DUBAI [] +3 5 59 3 17 34
    8 FAVOURITE GIRL [] +3 8 40 7 13 18
    9 INFAMOUS ANGEL [] +3 4 42 3 17 35
    10 KERRYS REQUIEM [] +3 8 46 6 -5 34
    11 MAGGIE LOU [] +3 4 38 2 34 33
    12 NEVER LOSE [] +3 3 10 1 10 35
    13 PENNY'S GIFT [] +3 6 60 4 28 35
    14 SUGAR FREE [] +3 4 56 2 56

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    ~ NMKJ 2:35 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 PEGASUS LAD [] - 4 46 2 38 38
    2 STIRLING CASTLE [] +1 4 40 3 21 29
    3 PERFECT CITIZEN [] +2 4 42 3 31 40
    4 GOOD AGAIN [] +2 3 33 2 33
    5 RICHO [] +7 5 35 4 -13
    6 BOBBIE SOXER [] +7 4 28 3 7 36
    7 GAL ALOUD [] +7 5 36 4 26 35
    8 DIDDUMS [] +7 3 39 2 32 40
    9 ROYAL EXECUTIONER [] +8 4 34 3 6 44
    10 TEPMOKEA [] +9 4 31 2 23 35
    11 SWEET SMILE [] +11 5 34 2 25 33
    12 DADDY'S GIFT [] +11 7 34 3 30 35
    13 FLYIT [] +11 4 29 2 27 34
    14 RAISE ALL IN [] +12 4 25 2 22 35
    15 SULTANS WAY [] +14 3 24 2 6 36
    16 SERICUS [] +17 4 22 3 -2 25
    17 SWINGFIRE [] +20 7 22 6 3 47
    18 DIGGER DEREK [] +20 5 18 4 14 32

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    ~ NMKJ 4:10 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 CUTTING COMMENTS [] - 7 33 4 27 29
    2 DARK ECHOES [] - 2 10 1 10 31
    3 DARK LANE [] - 3 39 1 39 31
    4 DEFECTOR [] - 3 33 2 29 30
    5 FYELEHK [] - 4 15 1 15 20
    6 GOING GOING GONE [] - 2 -55 1 -55 29
    7 IACHIMO [] - 2 -75 1 -75 35
    8 MYMATEERIC [] - 4 28 2 -4
    9 SCRAPPER SMITH [] - 5 25 2 -27 36
    10 SHARAV [] - 5 21 1 21 20
    11 SLOOP JOHNB [] - 6 34 1 34 32
    12 VEROON [] - 2 4 1 4 23
    13 WHISKY JACK [] - 3 35 1 35 30
    14 FLY BUTTERFLY [] +5 3 -23 1 -23 35
    15 LYONESSE [] +5 3 6 2 -1 35
    16 MISTY GLADE [] +5 7 25 4 9 35
    17 PANSY POTTER [] +5 3 -12 2 -35 35

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    ~ WDSR 5:20 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 IMPERIAL GUEST [] - 5 44 2 12 36
    2 BRAE HILL [] +2 5 52 2 33 32
    3 LOVE YOU LOUIS [] +2 5 34 3 18 30
    4 ALL SPIN [] +8 3 1 2 -2 28
    5 PIAZZA SAN PIETRO [] +8 2 22 1 22 36
    6 MOSCOW EIGHT [] +12 1 32
    7 LITTLE BLACKNUMBER [] +17 1 35

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    ~ WDSR 5:50 ~ Today's Race Best Run FTO Run
    Name [PRF] WCor Run Class Level Best [Est] Best Run FTO [EST] Ave % FTO
    1 ITSHIM [] - 1 12
    2 LIKE FOR LIKE [] - 8 35 1 35 35
    3 MISSUS CHRISTIE [] - 4 31 1 31
    4 SATWA BOY [] - 5 19 1 19 32
    5 AUGUST DAYS [] +5 6 12 5 -11 34
    6 BLACK SKIRT [] +5 4 8 1 8 35
    7 TURN TO DREAMS [] +5 4 7 3 -7 30

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