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Profile ratings for the Newmarket Group races below.
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Links to Results for the Dewhurst for - 2006
& 2007.
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Aiden O'Brien's recent runners in the Dewhurst :-
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2001 = Three way photo between his three runners with Where Or When
back in fourth. Rock Of Gibraltar (4/6f) just touched off Landseer (13/2)
& Tendulkar (8/1)
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2002 = Tomahawk 2nd (100/30), Ontario 6th (66/1), Mario Marini 7th
(33/1) & Great Pyramid 12th (20/1)
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2003 = Troubadour 5th (40/1) & Antonius Pius 11th (10/1)
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2004 = Oratorio 2nd (15/2, Group 1 winner in France in early October)
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2005 = Horatio Nelson 2nd (8/11f) & George Washington a non-runner
with Fallon switching to Horatio Nelson.
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2006 = Holy Roman Emporer 2nd (3/1), Mount Parnassus 12th (200/1)
& Naigani 15th (200/1)
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2007 = Greatwallofchina 8th (100/1) as a maiden.
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Rip Van Winkle has a somewhat different profile from the best of
his recent runners - of which only one has won, remember. The typical runner
has made an early season start and already been tested in the toughest
2yo races. Many had run in Coventry Stakes (Rock Of Gibraltar, Landseer,
Oratorio, Holy Roman Emporer & perhaps Henrythenavigator if we assume
he would have been last year's preferred runner). In 2002 Tomahawk ran
in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot while the Coventry runners were Spartacus
(won Group 1s in Ireland and Italy rather than the Dewhurst) & Statue
Of Liberty (unraced afterwards). The others had all first strings had all
run in Group 1 or 2 races - Horatio Nelson (already a Group 1 winner in
France), Antonius Pius (Group 2 winner in Ireland & he had no decent
runner ready for the Coventry and the limited Newton did inconspicuous
duty).
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So, the hardened high class ones, many with Group 1 successes have managed
one win in recent years. The horse you would expect to be here as first
string on profile would be Mastercraftsman but he looked below par at the
Arc meeting but probably beaten by a better horse in Naqqoos on TV pictures
anyway. That runner couldn't beat Intense Focus in France who links into
the main set of British runners with Lord Shanakill, Orizaba & Shaweel
behind him when he was second in the Coventry Stakes. Those horses went
on to meet up again in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood along with Soul City
(who has won French Group races, one from Shaweel & and the Goffs sales
race since). Shaweel had a good go at beating Mastercrafsmen on heavy ground
in Ireland as they both walked to the finish and the O'Brien horse looked
less good than he did when beating Bushranger & Art Connoisseur previously.
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That seam of form sets the standard that Rip Van Winkle will have to beat
and there is a strong representation from it in the race so Rip Van Winkle
will be properly tested. O'Brien ran the expensive, but limited in the
'Newton' sense, Peter Tchaichovsky in the Coventry and Rip Van Winkle has
a profile similar to Antonius Pius in that he wasn't ready for the Coventry
and had won a minor Irish Group event (the Group3 Tyros Stakes from the
filly Cuis Ghaire (the Albany Stakes victress at Royal Ascot) at level
weights in a slow time).
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His pedigree is just average to add to that. His dam was bought from the
Tattersalls yearling sales for 17,000 guineas and was just a useful sprinter
in Italy. Her recent siblings have been OR70-85 types as well. But, he
is by Galileo who sired the last two Dewhurst winners and has made a high
class start at stud. He cost 170,000 guineas at the Milan yearling sales
which wouldn't be the usual place to be looking for Group 1 2yos.
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So, an interesting race with Rip Van Winkle tentatively on top of the profiles
but with more than a niggle about his profile being on the thin side and
the rating owing much to the connections and a bit to the hype. That won't
be enough with a solid group like Soul City, Shaweel, Intense Focus &
Lord Shanakill in the field and he wouldn't be tempting at a short price
(value might be something like 5/1 or more). The fully campaigned O'Brien
horses didn't look at their best at the Arc meeting and you can therefore
read Rip Van Winkle's absence since July either as a positive or a negative
(i.e., lacking the race hardening of the others).
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As an aside trainer Michael Bell said a couple of interesting things when
interviewed before last week's (draw blighted) Cornwallis Stakes. He suggested
that Art Connoisseur's Coventry Stakes win might still be the best juvenile
performance seen this year in Britain. He may well have a point and if
you look at the result from that race and the main contenders here he has
a very good case. He also said that he felt he had never had him right
after Ascot and the Preview of August 23rd
covered this point and agreed with it. He also said that Bahamian Babe
had been running to around OR90 all season and the others had caught her
up and some had gone past her since her Marygate Stakes win in May - something
to ponder for those interested in precocity and the effect on juvenile
ratings through the season which require the horse to improve 18-20 points
to stay in the same place relative to the average. One of those beaten
in the Marygate was Aspen Darlin who, unlike Bahamian Babe, looks an entirely
different horse now that she did on her April debut. She just comes out
top in a tight knit affair for the Rockfel Stakes.
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