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The Newmarket Maiden is a Class 2 event which means
it as high as it can be without being promoted to a race type that can
be given Class 1 status (i.e. Listed & Group events). As a maiden that
will never happen but the overall quality of the race would be too thin
anyway. There are regular better types that run in it but it's early position
in the year and being over 5f count against it. The bigger stables really
get going when the 6f races begin in mid-May and in general 5f sprinting
is seen as a lesser discipline that 6f+ events. There is no Group 1 Championship
race for the distance for example.
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Last year's race was solid with Finjaan winning from Ouqba with a horse
that blossomed over 9f in late season in 4th. Finjaan went on on win a
Group 3 over 5f and place in the 7f Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. Ouqba won
up to Conditions level at 6f. That pair were both in the 2,000 Guineas
yesterday but had some combination of their lack of top class quality and
stamina thoroughly exposed. Go back through to 2002 and there are a few
nuggets with the 2002 race including German juvenile Group 2 winners Checkit
(Mick Channon regularly won that event having identified the German 2yo
Group events as lower quality).
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In 2005 George Washington finished 3rd looking very young and nothing like
his adult self. The rest of that field were borderline Listed placers at
best. 2006 was better with Conquest in 2nd and the first 6 home all won
comfortably at maiden level. The 2007 race was dreadful with the clear
win by the Listed placer type Achilles Of Troy proving to be the produce
of a lot of season maidens behind.
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As if often the case if the better quality is in the field it will tend
to come from a small set of sources given this is a '5f Early' race. Last
year's first & second were both owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum and trained
by Barry Hills (usual for him to run high class horses early over 5f) and
Marcus Tregoning (Uncommon but Finjaan was clearly exceptionally early
& quick in that regard). In 2006 the Group winner was Conquest and
a very rare early colt runner for William Haggas. Since Majestic Missile
is amongst the other three early 5f males he has run then Group quality
for the trainer's early types is relatively common. Conquest was beaten
by Richard Hannon's Sonny Red who went on to win at Listed level. Mr Hannon
has had a runner in every recent edition and won it with newcomers in 2002-3
& 2006. However, Sonny Red was the best of his representatives. When
Aiden O'Brien has brought the odd runner they have, predictably, been at
least useful.
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This year's field brings a number of those strands together in terms of
connections of the possible high class runners present. The question of
whether an early debut from an unusual source over 5f is also always present.
We should probably start with Ejaab who is owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum
and trained by William Haggas who have, separately, provided two of the
recent Group winners to take part. Ejaab & William Haggas was covered
in some detail on Monday (April 28th) when he was declared for a Novice
race at Nottingham. He was a non-runner in that race with a 'Temperature'
but that might have been tactical. He turns up here after a quick recovery
and the owner's other entry (Kanaf) redirected to Doncaster yesterday.
To sum Ejaab up you would say he must be high class, probably up to competing
in Group races at 2yo, but Mr Haggas will not fully wind him up for debut.
Which means that like Conquest was he is vulnerable to a more ready but
still useful model. But a debut win on class a real possibility.
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Richard Hannon runs Footstepsofspring who cost 72,000 guineas as
a foal and out of 8f winning dam from Germany with a US pedigree. Other
than the win by Sonny Red the others were in lesser editions of the race
lacking high class late runners for the most part. The next section of
this Preview covers how the trainer's season is progressing against his
'normal' record through to early May. He is a little behind his usual rate
for higher class runners and that will come right 'soon' because it always
does with such a reliable handler. Looking through the records an SP for
this one os around 4/1 and under and backed would indicate the trainer
is expecting a strong bid to win rather than a sound effort.
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Brian Meehan has his first 2yo runner of the season with Radiohead
and his only previous runner in the race was Northern Empire who was second
in 2005 (ahead of George Washington, who had a remarkable career in good
& bad ways from day one while Northern Empire is still flogging around
in AW claimers, hmmm). This is probably the latest start the trainer has
ever had and we can link back to the thoughts about 5f and 6f quality biases.
Mr Meehan has gradually improved the quality of his yard and now commands
a major training establishment (leasing the Sangster families Manton stables)
with a range of important owners. Looking at his record with 5f 2yos the
number of runs has declined notably in recent years. As that has happened
the number of March & April runs has shrunk until it has reached zero
this year. A clear link between increasing quality in his string and the
lack of nippy, precocious 2yos to run.
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Radiohead cost 78,000 guineas and more typical of the horse Meehan now
has than the point-and-shoot 10,000gns types he used to deal with. He is
by Johannesburg out of a sprint bred US dam with a limited pedigree. The
sire has already shown us one of his nippy early bull sprinters with Red
Jazz this year and the sales cost suggests this is a good specimen. The
trainer does not target strong debuts and the FTO wins come only at two
times of the year. However, 5-6f wins by Listed+ types with his Newmarket
debuts in April to early May is one of those periods. Overall this one
seems likely to be a useful sprint 2yo but would need to be better than
that to find a way to win this edition.
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In an ideal world Izaaj will be a lazy favourite and make a nice
market to take him on with whichever of the other very plausible types
you fancy. He is by Giant's Causeway who has never had a a British 5f 2yo
win and only one at 6f. Wins before midsummer have been close to non-existent
as well. The dam does not read as a raging speed influence either. On pedigree
a 'So What' response with a minor niggle about a 'Finjaan' style turbo
natural out of character with his pedigree.
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But than you stir Godolphin's record with 2yos around a bit. This is an
early start for them and their normal approach is to choose a couple of
useful, but not Group and usually not even Listed class, 5f 2yos. The bias
against 5f means they are not really interested in minimum distance sprinters
and they are running what they have kicking around to get things started.
Their record with 5f debuts in recent years is 1-14 and a solid loss because
their reputation means the prices are pretty short. They have stepped backed
from having the 2yos totally wired for debut although they tend to be competent
so FTO places are common. Put all of that together and Izaaj's profile
shouts nice OR87ish 5-6f 2yo that will be solidly prepared but beatable
by the better type(s) that should be here.
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Assuming that Tom Folan will get involved through competence earlier
but washed away as the bigger Powerballs roll forward is reasonable. Mahiki
runs for the Callaghan Stable that has regular runners in the race but
they have typically been in the OR70-79 range and come up short even in
the weaker editions. This filly is light on pedigree and will need to have
some form of turbo charger added to compete, powerwise. Which leaves the
much more likely filly High Spice for Robert Cowell. She has a similar
US pedigree to Absolute Music who ran for the owner & trainer at Doncaster
yesterday. The profile yesterday covered how the trainer appears to wind
horses up for debut and the good ones can win. You can read the Newmarket
kick-off two ways. Is she here because she is useful and better than Absolute
Music or come to a closer venue to her yard because the owner wants a day
out? Worth checking what Absolute Music achieved on her trip up North.
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In summary, a solid edition of the race on profile. Izaaj will hopefully
be favourite and an easy long-term decision to take him on. Ejaab &
Footstepsofspring come out on top of the debut winner profile and worth
checking how Kanaf went at Doncaster to see whether Ejaab has been preferred
over a real good one.
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========
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Richard Hannon's Pattern - Update
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The text in the following bullet points is repeated from the first Preview
of the year on March 28th. It outlined what we should expect from the first
15, or so, debuts from Richard Hannon. We are now at a good point to just
review whether Mr Hannon has been a good chap and conformed to the template.
It has been what he has been doing for at least 25 years so not a huge
risk in suggesting he will do the usual.
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There will be :-
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15 of his 2yos will have run by May 4th then there will be a short break
until he introduces another one at the Ascot meeting on May 9th.
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There will be 2-3 debut winners in that 15 and they will match up closely
with the best of his early 2yos. There is a good chance these will run
at Royal Ascot and a solid chance one will be up to winning at Listed/Group
level.
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The first 10 to run will include 6-7 that win during the season plus
a seasoning of 3-4 that won't win and are out early because they are useless
or lack scope to develop. The odd one of these will be dropped to a seller
or claimer to win.
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The first 5-6 runners will include 2 or 3 of his best early 2yos who
will win more than one race and compete in higher level races. Typically
the first 3 to run will include a really good one, an average winner and
a duff one.
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Which side of the debut SP range of 8/1 to 10/1 a horse falls is often
a good indicator of what sort of ability they have. The earliest debuts
are often at shorter prices until the market gets a handle (again) on the
fact he doesn't 'win with everything' and the fields get bigger with some
runners with previous runs and form. In 2008 he started with 3 debut winners
and this cast a shadow across the whole of the period and only one horse
in the first 14 (by May 15th) started at more than 8/1 (25/1 for Group
winner Souters Sister who must have surprised the stable by how she developed
with racing). Remember the SP qualification is for predicting ability across
the whole season and not just for a win on the day.
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The table below shows a date ordered list of the trainers 13 debuts to
April 28th. He has three newcomers entered today with Footstepsofspring
a strong looking runner at Newmarket and a couple of fillies in the Salisbury
conditions race with White Daffodil looking the first string over Kurtamella.
If they all run that will be 15 runners by May 3rd and a good match with
the first bullet point above. There has only been one debut winner so far
and that was Monsieur Chevalier who has won a conditions race since and
would be on top many people's lists of the best 2yo we have seen so far.
Which matches the second bullet point above except he would really like
at least one more early FTO win. Perhaps one of the 3 today will tidy that
stat up.
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The first 5 runners appears to have included only one better class runner
and, most notably, no win by a filly and no female has won for him this
year. This ties up with the fact he has two newcomers at Salisbury today
rather than the best of his early debut winning fillies as would normally
be the case. The notes in the table give some pointers on later runs and
ability. B2yoR has spent a number of years trying to see how debut ratings
can be used to predict later winners and maximum OR rating through the
2yo season. The fourth column below gives the B2yoR Estimate given to the
debut run remembering that Hannon runners are not wound up for debut although
they are at a pretty consistent level of fitness compared to each other.
The three winners he has had this year have recorded three of the top four
ratings with the other by Planet Red who has not run again but was entered
for a conditions race as a maiden. Unlike Messrs Best & Brittain he
isn't a try-on merchant and the good ones run in the good race.
| NAME |
DATE
& COURSE |
PLACE
& SP |
[EST] |
NOTES |
| DESERT AUCTION |
Mar 28, KTNA |
3rd, 5/1 |
20 |
Looked second string FTO and a solid 3rd without looking useful and
an OR70ish type. Has managed to win a soft race 3TO. |
| BLACK DADDY |
Mar 28, KTNA |
6th, 10/3 |
5 |
Looked first string and a slightly better types than Desert Auction
and a shorter SP. A mental 'Mouse' who packed it in early in the race and
did the same STO. The type the trainer brings better in a better state
of repair after a break and worth checking. |
| CROWN |
Apr 3, BATH |
5th, 2/1 |
11 |
Owner, debut race and support to 2/1 on debut suggested she was the
good early filly he lacks so far. She was given a trial ride FTO and put
through the mincer by speedier fillies STO. Probably an OR72ish type and
not the useful type. |
| FLAPJACK |
Apr 6, WDSR |
6th, 7/1 |
-19 |
Invisible debut after a drift and long price STO indicating she is
poor to moderate. |
| MONSIEUR CHEVALIER |
Apr 9th, FOLK |
1st, 3/1 |
45 |
His best 2yo to run and already won STO. Seems to have a 7f future
and not just a 5f to midseason type. |
| CAPTAIN COOL |
Apr 15th, NMKT |
5th, 9/1 |
4 |
Ran in conditions race FTO suggesting he is OK and SP on day borderline
for OK. Outpaced and ran poorly and blew up rather early when pressed into
an ordinary maiden STO. Ineteresting to see how his career pans out. Perhaps
he is a son of Captain Rio that needs more time to develop. |
| PLANET RED |
Apr 17th, NWBY |
2nd, 4/1 |
31 |
Good debut in ordinary Newbury maiden and should be OR80+ maiden winner
at least. |
| ONE COOL BUCK |
Apr 17th, NWBY |
13th, 16/1 |
-18 |
SP and performance suggest a poor one and non-winner over season. Taller
& skinny One Cool Cat physical type and not a lost cause on size grounds. |
| KING'S APPROACH |
Apr 18th, NOTT |
3rd, 9/1 |
23 |
Small & sleepy on debut and solid winner in OK maiden STO. Perhaps
OR79ish type. |
| KINGS OF LEO |
Apr 27th, WDSR |
5th, 3/1 |
15 |
Towered over field but ran to freely in fillies' Auction race and faded.
Entered for the Lily Agnes and probably high up in is rank of early 5f
fillies. |
| SIXPENNY MOON |
Apr 27th, WDSR |
9th, 12/1 |
2 |
Invisible debut in same race as Kings Of Leo and not obvious promise. |
| AVON RIVER |
Apr 28th, BATH |
7th, 8/1 |
6 |
Borderline SP and jockey at least tried on him suggesting they were
trying to find whether he might be usable. OR60s? |
| DREAM OF GERONTIUS |
Apr 28th, BATH |
13th, 16/1 |
-21 |
Apparent first string over Avon River but allowed to flounder about
at the back after a big drift in the market. A development project for
6f+ is usable at all? |
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The fillies' Conditions race at Salisbury suffers from the same
early season and 5f issues as the Newmarket race. This is only the 49th
race of the season and not much more than 300 horses have runs and half
are ineligible through their sex. A Class 3 race for the 'best' we have
seen in female terms is working uphill. The problems compound because trainers
like Barry Hills never have runners so this race becomes a Hannon-Channon-Turner
interchange with the odd add-on from smaller stables who happen to have
an early one. The race only has any worthwhile future significance when
Mr Hannon runs the best of his early fillies that have already run &
won. As covered above that is a problem for the race this year. As
a soft conditions race it attracts a low of owner bred fillies where
the dam is still producing for the owner. Blag a place in this sort of
race and it goes straight into catalogue page of the next yearling sale
as 'Placed in the Not Really That Soft Honest Conditions Stakes - Class
3'. Hoping that a bidder might take that as a good sign without checking
that it was achieved by beating a lot of even smaller and incompetent owner
breds.
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A couple of those owner breds are Lady Lion (Lady Filly 1st &
Lady Killer 2nd are previous runners for connections in the event) and
Mrs Boss and both should be short of the required quality. The first
of those represents Bill Turner who always runs the best of his early fillies
in the race. The fact that she has won at claimer level indicates he lacks
a better one in 2009. Rod Millman owns the dam and bred Mrs Boss from his
favourite sire Makbul. She made some remote progress out the back at Haydock
last weekend but not looking any real promise. His 2yos seem to peak STO
these days but hard to think this anything more than an owner breeder hit-and-hope
(ask Mick Channon who got a 2nd place in a Novice with Musiara yesterday
after non-runners and withdrawals, you never know).
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The more solid form comes from Leleyf & Emma Jean Lass who met at Lingfield
in early season and jumped from 3rd-4th at halfway to fight out the finish
as the front two faded. On the balance of how the fillies behind them have
performed since them that looks solid form to bring to this field. A tricky
call between them because both run for 'peak STO' and should improve. Neither
trainer has won the race with Channon having had 7 goes since 2002 &
Stan Moore one each in 2007-8. A slight preference for Leleyf across the
four with previous form.
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Richard Hannon runs two and has never won it with a debut filly. The ones
he has run FTO in the race have managed two seconds at best with all but
one minor maiden winners at best. Preference for White Daffodil
with Pat Dobbs riding and bringing in a solid 2yo pedigree. The final twist
is that Peter Winkworth runs Lutine Lady and another with a believable
2yo pedigree. By the good sire Exceed And Excel out of Hillside Girl who
was a very remote fourth in Attraction's Hilary Needler romp. She also
marked the start of the descent of Alan Berry's training fortunes when
he was investigating for running her knowing she was lame. The trainer
has his 2yos well forward and has had a debut win early in the week and
a FTO second yesterday.
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In summary the race is normally won by a previous winner bringing strong
form in. The newcomers tend to close up later in the race and usually some
up a bit short. Last year the 20/1 Foundation Room won FTO in this manner
as the battling form fillies faded. A subtly different set-up this year
with the newcomers from the stable who normally provide the form filly
along with a 'Ready FTO' trainer. The form fillies from Lingfield run for
trainers who normally bring newcomers or maidens her that come up short.
A final furlong chase between White Daffodil trying to close down Leleyf
just ahead of Miss Emma Jean perhaps.
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