BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2012 Season Race Result
Race 18 : Mon, April 16th
Windsor 2:00, 5f Maiden (5)
[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level,
Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30.
Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type.
Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish.
GOING TIME RcPc Video VP
GGF 61.05
[Compare]		 0Link None

Horse SP [EST]Run Wnr Trainer Dw Hf Run Notes
1Baddilini3431 N A. Bailey 3
3
Supp 4/1, BkWL, 3rd+0.5f 2Wd Sttld, TvCmf Hf, Eff-1.5f, Ld-1f+, Po SInx, Cmf
2Ouzinkie14381 S M. R. Channon 8
7
B-1 P-1, Dv Erl Resp, XB+0.5f & Last, Prg+2f ins & 2R, TvCmf-2f Blckd until-1f+ then Eff, Po to Ln, SUnbal Lt
3Regal Dan4371 N C. B. Hills 5
4
Drift 11/4, BOk, H-2 Erl, Drop-in+0.5f R Hld, Ngl-2f+, po ins-2f SInx, Resp-1f+, Po & Chal, po ins-0.5f, FdLt
4Fortinbrass14332 A R. M. Beckett 2
2
BOk ins, JnLdr+0.5f & 2nd 1Wd Sttld, Eff-2f, po, SOutpcd-2f+, po, FdLt
5Vestibule16271 A E. Johnson-Houghton 4
5
Drift 16/1, BOk, H-2 Erl D-in, Ngl Hf SInx Rsp, TvOk-2f, WaitGap ins-2f, Eff-1.5f, po HnH, JkQt ins-0.5f or 4th MvAwk?
6Lea Valley Black7302 A T. G. Dascombe 1
1
JU OT, Held in Stalls, BOk RL, Ngl Erl Resp, Ld+0.5f, Ngl-2f+, Eff-2f, po, Hdd-1f+, Stall ins-1f, Fd-0.5f
7Meringue Pie2221 M R. Hannon 6
6
TP Inx MntYngOv, BOk Inx PLh, 2R+1f SHgL, Dv-2f+ Inx TTR, LsGrnd-1.5f, NoResp ins-1f, Eased ins-0.5f
8World Freight Girl50101 D. K. Ivory 9
9
B-1 Ngl P-1, Dv Erl TTR, XB+0.5f Dv, Resp+1f, LsGrnd-2f+, SwcR ins-2f Inx, Fd-0.5f+
9Fletcher Christian25111 M J. Gallagher 10
8
BLh-1 Wdst PDv, Dv Erl TTR, LsGrnd+0.5f Drop-in, Inx Hf TTR Dv, LsGrnd-2f SUnbal, Fd ins-0.5f
10Modern Society100-672 A. Reid 7
10
B-1 PDv Resp, Dv Erl & LdgLn Cent, Outpcd+1f Dv Drop 8th, -6L Hf, Adf ins-2f MvAwk, Eased-1f


SUMMARY
 £10k Bonus Race.

Going GGS on previous Saturday but dry and windy after and going changed to GGF on day. Going stick reading from 09:30 on Sunday = CHECK for Update. Update from Monday 10:45 as 8.1 from 8.0.Course at Maximum Width = Check for any Stands' Rail bias. 10 degrees with light Southerly wind moving around to more SW during afternoon = Crosswind from the left and more of a 1/4 Tailwind as it moves to SW direction.

Charlie Hills news page on his website = "On Monday at Windsor we have our first two year old runner Regal Dan. He's been a pro from the moment he was broken and has always been very forward. Our two year olds are not reallly revved up to win first time out but he should give a good account of himself."

Dascombe on a small message service 2.5hrs before the race = "LVB is drawn well and will have come on for his debut. Stiffer test on the turf should benefit also, so not without a chance...". Usual, peculiar, Negating-a-Negative, format. Why not just 'has a chance..' or preferrably what OR level he thinks he can perform to. Without a number and sizing up the opposition on the same scale Dascombe has no idea what sort of 'chance' he has anyway. Rendering the phrase meaningless. Dascombe then briefly interviewed pre-race and said he had been a bit disaapointed with LVB at KTNA although Kingscote had thought he had gone ok. He then said that if LVB got out and showed the pace to run prominently he should be ok. LVB managing the first part but still fading to a moderate 6th. More Dascombe over-enthusiam before the horse ran?

Average pace at best and not much more than a 2 furlong sprint and the race should be read in that context. Two STO runners drawn next to rail has easy time in lead but still comfortably put away by the better newcomers. Better types took a bit of time to get on top because of lesser pace but well there by the finish. Lesser and green types under pressure at this pace so how would they have gone in a faster race? A bit of getting blocked in 2R and having to wait for gaps for the 2nd & 5th home. Etc.

Baddilini looks well bought at the price and you wonder why he was so cheap? The sales video of him shows a balanced, bulky type with a good swing to his walk. Has developed fine from that and a solid 2yo in prospect here. Trainer Bailey gets prominent deuts with better types and his 10 winners in 2009-11 included 3 x FTO wins and four more in 2nd-4th FTO. SP shows solid correlation and a guideline is under 5/1 ought to be a good one, 7/1 to 12/1 an ok one and above that a duff one or odd development type winner. Which meant the Market here told you Bailey thought he had a good one. Interviewed post-race and said he was "pretty confident" before the race and thought this one is a good. Travelled comfortably, a bit green and took some time to get going but going away at the finish and presumably OR85+ and competitive at higher level. An interesting point that his stoutly bred dam has produced 8f+ and 3yo development winners previously including a full brother that won over 8f as a 2yo. Which would increase the hope that this one can develop further at 2yo.

Ouzinkie a typical place in this sort of race for a solid Channon type and OR80+ and might do better as a zippy type. Might have been a 'Type 3' Channon FTO winner except he tends to pick tougher races so they place lacking some nous then peak STO. Given the races Channon will run him in to try to boost his OR for onward sales value he might end up with an [Tester trigger-happy boosted] OR95+. A slower break from wide and then in last early and crossed behind the field in last. Made progress comfortably before halfway and then having to wait behind LVB & Fortinbrass from 2F out until just before the last 1F then wriggled through a gap between them. A bit green and unbalanced but a strong finish and might have bustled the winner up if he had got out earlier. But the winner would have responded anyway. As a user of the site [Maurice] pointed out Michael Channon (i.e. the son) says in an aside on one of the Gallops videos on the Channon website that "the Kodiac is the one" which meant Ouzinkie. That after he had finished an anonymous midfield in a Gallops group which included Perfect Words. But, calm and settled and travelling comfortably.

The 'Eye Spy Early' article asked how Charlie Hills would go about training the 2yos now he has taken over the licence. On the early evidence on the entires this week and the run here of Regal Dan then nothing has changed. RD has a terriffic early 5f 2yo pedigree given his dam and siblings and was a bit cheap given that. Just a medium size but ok build. A solid debut here until fading after the typical Michael Hills haul-back at the start. This seemed a classic place early debut for the OR78-83 one. Will he now go to the Maiden at the Chester May meeting and fail to win and then end up in nurseries and developing after mid-season? Looking at the Hills entries later in the week you wonder whether Englishman who is due to run at Newbury on Friday is the classier debut this week.

Fortinbrass behind the Changeover Point and anything behind him needs a valid excuse to be Open Maiden. Fortinbrass smaller in the group and a compact type of his sire. Perhaps OR60s nursery type and need to find a soft race to win, Auction or whatever, to succeed before they start.

Vestibule the first runner for her trainer and she often starts with a few lesser fillies who rarely win and the odd better type mixed. She does get ready debuts (incl a 100/1 FTO win in 2011) so the lesser types can show up ok FTO and then struggle to develop much or win. But, Vestibule seemed to do a bit more here than the average lesser types she starts early, although the caveat of a lesser pace needs some thought. Travelled comfortably to inside 2F out and had to wait for a gap. An ok response and would have finished in front of Fortinbrass but jockey Gannon doing nothing in the last 0.5f (horse moving poorly?). Below Open Maiden class but seemed to do enough here to think OR60s fillies' auction race is a solid possibility early season.

Lea Valley Black the third STO runner of the season for Dascombe and all three have been uninspiring if not running to a lower level than debut. LVB had the advantage of a soft lead here and the earliest to fade. Disappointing effort and is the horse a real 5f type at all? Check how the other stable STOs go for a while.

Meringue Pie another lazy favourite in a string of them of late. 'Hannon in the first at Windsor' piffle and stop thinking there unless a slight pause to drool over Ryan Moore riding. As the Hannon's have said on their website this season thier 2yos are not 'revved up' for debut. What that translates to is that FTO wins come with BETTER TYPEs and not with the ordinary kit. For the obvious reason that an OR100 horses running 20-30lbs below it's best FTO can still win. An OR65-74 one cannot. In a field with a number of chunky, medium sprinters, or a bit better in the winner's case, MPie did not stand out at all. Another medium one and not as bulky as some. Added to that he was very green and mentally young throughout. Watch him going down to the start alongside Baddilini and the Market prices are just silly. Like watching a mature 22yo human going down alongside a daft 15yo. The winner outpointing MPie in whatever category you might want to mark. The Hannon runners snap together STO so he will go ok then but clueless here and not looking definate Open Maiden quality. [Hannon senior quoted on his website the day after = "Inevitably, the doom-and-gloom merchants were quick to suggest that all was not well with the Hannon team after our three runners had run poorly at Windsor on Monday, but in truth we probably did not expect to come home with a winner - sure Meringue Pie was disappointing, but our two-year-olds nearly always benefit from the run, and, like Lyric Ace, he will be sharper next time. The boss said: "We have a few early ones, but on the whole we have a different type of two-year-old this season. Most of them have done nothing but canter, but there is plenty of quality there, and I like what I have seen in the morning". "]

World Freight Girl a typical uncompetitive debut for a trainer with a poor record with 2yos. No winner since 2009 although in the year they were his first two runners of the season. But nothing positive to recommend here.

John Gallagher has an even worse record with 2yos than Ivory. His 3 individual winners in the last 10 years have been struggles and with three better class physical types that other trainers would have achieved wins with much more easily. Fletcher Christian and unusully expensive on for him and with a very good sprint 2yo pedigree. Another, like Regal Dan, where the price is almost a bit cheap given what the dam can deliver at best. Another medium sprinter but unfit with a bit of a belly. Added to that being clueless in the race. If Hannon trained it you would be expecting him to find an early maiden he could win. Likely to be more of a struggle to watch slowly unfold with Gallagher if he manages a win at all.

Modern Society looks and moves like an 8f+ galloper and you wonder why he is running over 5f now? The trainer seems to target 5-6f wins on the AW and doesn't vary the approach. Jockey tried to get him out and involved but always under pressure to go the average pace and outpaced before halfway and then a bad fade having been dragged along too fast. Why not put him away and bring him back on the AW over the winter at 8.6f? He isn't going to show enough to be given a handicap mark at present so couldn't even set himself up for that with early season runs.

Race Conditions = £5,000 guaranteed For 2yo which are E.B.F. eligible Weights colts and geldings 9st 3lb, fillies 8st 12lb Entries 17 pay £ 25 Penalty value 1st £3,234.50 2nd £962.50 3rd £481.00 4th £240.50

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