BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2016 Season Race Result
	Race 1 : Fri, March 25th Wolverhampton 3:30, 5.1f Conditions (3)
2016 Season Home 2016 Results	[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level, Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30. Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type. Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish. GOING TIME RcPc Video VP STD 60.78 [Compare] 0 Link None

SUMMARY

This a replacement Meeting with EDIN cancelled by March 15th because the ground replacement work they undertook in mid-2015 in an unusable state after a notably wet winter. This race the equivalent of the 'Scottish Brocklesby' conditions race originally on the EDIN Good Friday card.    Sutter County in home gallop late March (Left above) and in WTON PRing. Medium, deep & strongish build, relaxed and professional attitude. Short neck & head down (above ave) strider? === First Thoughts ===== Very Fast Time and only Moviesta (older Group horse) run faster than 61secs dead before end 2014. Track riding very Fast at end of 2015 season and 4 x October races run in between 60.05s to 61.25s and = e.g. 61.25s in Nurs by OR66 filly and OR82 SOTKodiac running 60.5s. Check how the following two x 5.1f races match for time. Next race a good qual Conds and won by Rah Rah (MaJo first day 2yo debut winner in 2015) who is on OR102 and on season debut. But, Rah Rah adrift off the back of the field scrubbed along then passed all the others in the HS in what looked like a Pace War gone wrong (breaking the race aparat). Rah Rah doing 60.06secs (RRah carying 12lbs less than SC). King Crimson won 2 races after this in 60.29s (OR75ish 4yo. carrying 2lbs less than SC). = Those times suggest a stronger performance than suspected by SC? Race seemed to be lacking in depth and perhaps just Sutter County real 75+ and a suspect, and mainly smaller, group behind. Disinclined to look too hard for 75+ quality behind and the main issue how good SCounty is and what else the 'rest' might be able to blag/steal/luck-out-in during the early season. MaJo had a big increase in 2yos in 2015 and focussed more on them. Had 107 individual runners (rank 3rd), 56 of which won (2nd). Has 124 x 2yos listed on his website for 2016. MaJo won all 3 x 2yo races on the first day of 2015 season. That group ranged from Buratino (improved and bulked up to be a Coventry winner), through the filly Rah Rah (conditions winner and unplaced at Group level - won the following race on this card as a 3yo in Godolphin colours) and OR80s Ravenhoe (looking smaller and ready type and didn't develop during the season. Sutter County a complete natural here and able to get to attending Decadent Times' lead comfortably. Pulling clear with that one on bend to HS and able to maintain that effort to the line. Jk pulling up a bit later on but probably made little difference to time. SCounty a medium size and solid build, straight mover and full professional. Looks to have more scope that Ravenhoe (for eg) but lack the tall frame that Buratino developed into. Definite OR90+ and probably able to rate around a BHA 100 in the first half of season. Would expect MaJo to try to run up a sequence with him given how straightforward he is and not taking much out of himself here. 9 lengths back to 2nd and some of that down to SCounty's sustained HS effort but a fair bit down to lack of quality behind. Stringybark Creek still Channon owned and a cheap but. A small one but competent and able to plug on in the HS for a Volunteer 2nd. FTO places by Channon owned ones at long SPs are common occurence. SCreek lacking much by way of physical positives = Low 60s? in the full view. General comment would be wary of expecting the beaten horses here to 'win' competitive races and more needing to parlay their relative experience in moderate ones to be successful. Dascombe used to get ready FTO ones in early season while making his name but that has gone away in recent years. Had a very poor 2015 and took a long time for the stable to get going and the first win on June 27th. Will he try to make a faster start in 2016 in response. Has 2 x cheap ones in the first two days of this season. Decadent Times small and compact and jk Kingscote looking big on him. Suspect he is some sort of OR60s nursery type. But, very competent FTO and Kingscote one of the best jks at organising debut 2yos (on a 1-5 scale he is prob a 5 and Frank wouldn't get onto the scale). Which meant DT setting a lead on the rail into the bend and the only one to give SC any sort of test. DT able to respond a bit into the HS and making a bit of a gap to those behind before folding back having lost touch with ST. Probably a bit better than SCreek but not Open Maiden quality. Merry Banter comes across as having usable pedigree and trainer Midgley no good with FTOs despite having had one a long way back. Check how she came to be 4th but a low rating rather than a 'promising 4th'. Worth checking if she can win something. Trainers Dixon & McEntee both able to get early FTO winners and tend to have 2yos ready to show a lot of their ability FTO (Dixon can overdo it). In that context poor midfield runs by Khelly's Edge & Red Mohican behind smaller to small ones in 2nd-4th reads poorly. Check if any REAL excuses and any size to them. Patrouille De Nuit mostly looks like small seller material and another negative for those 'with' him at the finish. Trainer Evans had an increase in 2yos numbers in 2015 and more importantly a greater spend. He typically blasts off running everything he has ready in the first 2-3 weeks of the season and the good ones can win FTO. In 2015 he seemed to have stepped back a bit from that, perhaps partly because he had more males with a bit more size. But, he had 2 in this race and a total of 10 fillies in the 2 Divs of the KTNA maiden the following day. So we are back to running 'everything' early and the job is to try to spot the odd better one. Davarde low in the Profile because of a negative Yearling Picture (small, oddly shaped = not helped by standing in an odd way). Did not seem to have grown but ok Build in context here. Is he a usable early season 70? Why did he fail here. Ridden by Queally and strong in the Market all day and eventually got to favourite. Why the Price vs Performance mismatch? Gannon on Letmestopyouthere who was very weak in Market. Bill Turner can get his 2yos very ready and competent but FTO wins few in recent years, none in 2015 and he seems to have lacked any quality other than Mick's Yer Man. Who Told Jo Jo reading like a moderate one and also low in Profile because you cannot trust his grandson Jk (Ryan While) on a technical track like this. The most you can expect is that he wont fall off on a straight track when a competent and natural runner can, literally, carry the pair to a debut win. More interest in what Turner sends to the real Brocklesby. Cullingworth top on Profile and had plenty of positives if you forgave the poor results of the dams previous foals (including a full brother in 2015). Market always hinting at a lesser one and small side of medium at most. Jk Hamilton pusshing along from soon out of the stalls and Cullingworth never going forward. Can improve for being more knowing but did not show anything to think he might be a strong developer from this ruck debut. Is he a 60s one if he isn't just a plain mouse attitude. Another who made one think Thank-God-Sutter-County-was-here to stop this being a joke of a Conditions race worth £9k+ to the winner. === Post Video Review ====

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