BRITISH 2YO RACING: 2002-2006 Starting Price Stats
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Starting Prices: Questions covered in this section are:-
  1. What percentage of the 2yo races are won within given SP Ranges?
  2. How does the win-run percentage match expected values within SP ranges?
  3. What is the overall Level Stakes Loss (LSL) for each run number?

1. What percentage of the 2yo races are won within given SP Ranges?

The following table shows what percentage of 2yo races were won by each SP range in each of the seasons 2002-2005.


 

The following graph shows an example of the total number of runners (green line) within a particular SP range and the number of those that won (red line) for the 2003 season


 

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2. How does the win-run percentage match expected values within SP ranges?

The solid black line in the chart below shows the expected wins-runs percentage for each SP range. The SP ranges are represented as decimal numbers. Where the variable data lines are above the black 'expected' line it shows that the 2yo runners within that SP range won more races than their SPs would suggest. If the coloured lines are below the black line then the 2yo runners with that SP have been less successful as a group than their SPs would suggest.

Of interest has been the range 0.5 (i.e. 1/2) through to 1.25 (i.e. 5/4) which have shown a good set of examples of SP ranges exceeding expectations in the last three seasons. It is worth remembering that these are against returned SP figures. With the current competitive betting market, including Internet Exchanges, it would be normal to expect to be able to better the final SP for the majority of individual examples in each group.

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3. What is the overall Level Stakes Loss (LSL) for each run number?

The following tables show the average Level Stakes Loss (and occasional Level Stakes Profile) for all 2yo runners split by the run number (where FTO = first time out, STO = second time out, 3TO = third time out, etc.) The three tables are for the 2003-2005 seasons.
 
2003 Season Total Runs Total Wins Win Percentage Total SP of winners LSP/LSL in SP Range LSP/LSL per Runner
FTO 2647 169 6.4% 1473 -1005 -0.38
STO 2167 269 12.4% 1455 -443 -0.20
3TO 1640 213 13% 919 -508 -0.31
4TO 1083 126 11.6% 714 -243 -0.22
5TO 766 90 11.7% 388 -288 -0.38
6TO 504 44 8.7% 250 -210 -0.42
7TO 352 22 6.3% 119 -211 -0.60
8TO 233 23 9.9% 171 -39 -0.17
9TO 153 13 8.5% 114 -26 -0.17
10TO 104 14 13.5% 74 -16 -0.15
11TO 73 4 5.5% 21 -48 -0.66
12TO 47 6 12.8% 70 +29 +0.62
13TO 25 3 12% 10 -12 -0.48
14TO 18 1 5.6% 4.5 -13.5 -0.75
9812 runs
Ave = 10%

 
2004 Season Total Runs Total Wins Win Percentage Total SP of winners LSP/LSL in SP Range LSP/LSL per Runner
FTO 2912 184 6.3% 1648 -1080 -0.37
STO 2362 272 11.5% 1299 -791 -0.33
3TO 1821 190 10.4% 1032 -599 -0.33
4TO 1258 140 11.1% 954 -164 -0.13
5TO 809 74 9.1% 548 -187 -0.23
6TO 548 52 9.5% 287 -209 -0.38
7TO 347 34 9.8% 213 -100 -0.29
8TO 217 20 9.2% 134 -63 -0.29
9TO 128 19 14.8% 150 +41 +0.32
10TO 80 7 8.8% 51 -22 -0.28
11TO 42 3 7.1% 15.5 -23.5 -0.56
12TO 22 1 4.5% 5.5 -15.5 -0.70
13TO 14 1 7.1% 2.25 -10.5 -0.75
14TO 3 0 0% 0 -3 -1.00
10567 runs
Ave = 9.4%

 
2005 Season Total Runs Total Wins Win % Total SP of winners LSP/LSL in SP Range LSP/LSL per Runner
FTO 2904 173 6.0% 1670 -1061 -0.37
STO 2356 270 11.5% 1818 -268 -0.11
3TO 1834 193 10.5% 1102 -539 -0.29
4TO 1199 137 11.4% 781 -281 -0.23
5TO 801 83 10.4% 450 -268 -0.33
6TO 562 64 11.4% 498 0 0
7TO 359 37 10.3% 223 -99 -0.28
8TO 218 20 9.2% 102 -96 -0.44
9TO 148 7 4.7% 46 -95 -0.64
10TO 95 9 9.5% 82 -4 -0.04
11TO 62 4 6.4% 40 -18 -0.29
12TO 30 2 6.7% 11 -17 -0.57
13TO 15 0 0% 0 -15 -1.0
14TO 9 1 11.1% 20 +12 +1.33
10,601
runs
Ave = 9.4%

 
2006 Season Total Runs Total Wins Win % Total SP of winners LSP/LSL in SP Range LSP/LSL per Runner
FTO 2696 180 6.7% 1882.25 -633.75 -0.24
STO 2166 267 12.3% 1370.50 -528.50 -0.24
3TO 1617 175 10.8% 779.19 -662.81 -0.41
4TO 1032 130 12.6% 648.48 -253.52 -0.25
5TO 689 73 10.6% 395.93 -220.07 -0.32
6TO 473 52 11.0% 264.72 -156.28 -0.33
7TO 323 44 13.6% 237.11 -41.89 -0.13
8TO 195 19 9.7% 145.63 -30.37 -0.16
9TO 116 4 3.4% 51.00 -61.00 -0.53
10TO 65 6 9.2% 40.80 -18.2 -0.28
11TO 39 6 15.4% 33.00 0 0
12TO 25 3 12.0% 48.00 +26 +1.04
13TO 15 1 6.7% 3.50 - -0.70
14TO 8 0 0% 0 -8 -1.00
9,466
runs
Ave = 10.1%

The following chart presents the 'Level Stake Loss/Profit Per Runner' column from the previous tables for 2003 to 2005. The dotted black line represents the break even point whereby backing every runner in that run number group results in neither a loss nor a profit. The majority of points on the graph are below the break even line showing a loss on backing every runner in that group. The maximum that can be lost per runner is -1.0 (i.e. the level stake on all runners if none of them win). The amount the points are below the dotted line is a good indication of the amount of 'over round' that the Bookmaker has built into the SPs. This is the Bookmakers profit margin assuming they can get an ideal range of bets placed on all runners in a race.

The chart shows some interesting points. The first point to note is that the few figures in Profit in each season are anomalies caused by the odd long priced winner amongst a small number of runners. They are not long term trends that can be relied on. What does appear to show up is that the 2yos on their Second (STO) and Fourth (4TO) runs show a lesser loss per runner than other outings. It is still a loss but suggests that 2yos on these outings are more competitive than the overall SP level suggests.

This makes sense for runners on their Second outing because they are often at their 'peak' to compete in maidens. The majority of trainers look for a 'nice' debut run which gives the 2yo confidence, knowledge and puts an edge on their fitness. They then aim to have their 2yos close to their best STO. Something to consider when your selection process has turned up a value alternative on their second outing.

The reason for the 4TO lesser loss is not so easy to pinpoint. One likely contributor is 4TO runners in Nurseries which again links to how trainers prepare their 2yos to hit 'peak' form. Unless they have already won a race then 2yos will be on their first handicap run 4TO and probably compete a little better than the average. The 4TO Level Stake Loss in 2005 season Nurseries, for example, was -0.18 compared to -0.23 in all race types.

The following graph shows the similar information in a different form. The numbers along the x-axis are the Run Numbers for 2yos in the period 2003-6. For example, 1 means the 2yos first run (debut). The downward leading blocks show the Level Stakes Loss (LSL) you would have incurred in having a 1 point bet on every 2yo in that period on than run number. An LSL of -1.0 is the maximum with no winners and all of your stake money lost. The variation with runners on their twelfth outing showing a small profit is due to the small number of samples and a couple of long priced winners in the period. Note that the average loss across all runners is close to -0.3 (i.e., 30% of whatever you stakes totalled).

The interesting point is that over the period and with more than 10,000 samples the runners on their Second and Fourth outing lose about 33% less than those on their First or Third. Not a fact to make you rich but an indication of a slight edge that you can think about in your overall approach.


 

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