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April 14th SUMMING UP
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A very difficult race to sum up and be certain of the result. In short,
any of the runners could win and it would not be much of a surprise. Ia
season where the level of form shown by previous runners has not been strong
five of the last eight races (over a 9 day period) have been won by newcomers
and only three by experienced runners. Those three had all shown solid
placed form before their wins and the newcomers have included winners at
25/1 & 20/1 in races where the pace has been too strong and moderate
performances from outpaced runners have been successful.
Which brings us to this group and there are more ifs-and-buts than solid
markers. The two who have already run showed very little and both were
at relatively long SPs suggesting they were lesser types. Beckenham's
Secret & Chip Leader both run here for trainers who tend
to send better types to the course. But you have to forgive their poor
first runs and foresee abnormal improvement to see them setting a strong
standard. Both have possible excuses for their debut runs but neither appeal
as betting propositions. They have been given a positive view on their
ability to improve STO in deference to their trainer's overall records
to reach the profile ratings above.
The newcomers also lack an obvious better class type who is likely to be
suited by an early season 5f race. Suhayl Star has a mixed pedigree
and the sire is going to have to add all the 5f zip which will be tough
for him. On the negative side his trainer's 2yos have put in some poor
efforts this week and only his better types tend to win FTO. As a general
point it would be interesting to know who buys the 'Box 41' owned 2yos
with the trainer, do they do worse than the stable average? He is probably
a solid winner of some sort in the season but unlikely to be value in this
race.
Monkey Glas & Riverside Dancer represent northern trainers
who do not tend to get FTO winners other than occasionally with their better
types. K. Burke had a FTO winner this week at 25/1 (from 20/1) but that
race fell apart after the leaders went much too quick and did not seem
to suggest the trainer had his runners more forward than usual.
In summary, a compact profile by ratings and not a strong case to be made
for any of them. The most intriguiging aspect for the pre-race assessment
is what Dear One is doing here? Her pedigree says 8f 2yo and probably
better as a 3yo. Her picture from the sales shows a reasonable physical
type and a mature attitude so why was she relatively cheap given her sire?
Her trainer runs 2yos of all abilities from early season but given her
background why bother running her over 5f now? He could string the owner
along with stories of 'being backward' & 'needs time' if she's not
very good without demonstrating it. Might she be alright?
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RACE QUALITY:
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A Class 4 race which means it has a higher prize money fund but does not
gurantee a better field. As is often the case the 'Class 4' tag seems to
have contributed to the small field. However, there are enough runners
who cost reasonable sales prices and representing trainers who run competitive
2yos amongst their first runners to suggest this field ought to produce
a majority of winners in the season.
However, the early date and the lack of solid previous form suggests a
ready runner would only have to run to a rating in the 60s to win.
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TRAINERS:
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In some ways a typical, early season, maiden at Kempton with representatives
from R Hannon, M. Channon & R. Millman joined by one other southern
trainer - P. Blockley this year. The two unsual runners represent Yorkshire
trainers K. Ryan & K. Burke.
Messrs. Ryan & Burke rarely have debut runners south of the midlands
and usually only in the north after early season. K. Ryan has already had
one debut runner at Kempton this year with Granny Peel who ran in a seller
next time. With the cold and damp spring along with mostly softer going
at the turf meetings to date it is likely these trainers are using this
course to get better going rather than these 2yos being notably better
types.
R. Hannon often used the
Kempton turf maidens to introduce solid types - how will this compare with
the new AW track?
Consider that in 2005 he ran Godfrey Street (later 5f Group 2 winner) and
Cool Creek (later 6f Group 2 winner) on March 26th and April 2nd in the
only two Kempton maidens before it closed. They were a little exceptional
in terms of class but he usually runs at least average winners during the
season in the early Kempton turf maidens.
However, a big point to note is that neither Cool Creek (lost ground with
a slow start and inexperience) nor Godfrey Street (made much of the running
before getting tired) won on debut. His two FTO runners this season have
not been competitive.
M Channon also usually
introduces a 2yo in these early season Kempton maidens that wll be a solid
winner during the season. In 2002 the early runners were Bravo Ragasso
(won 5/4) & Mardoof (2nd at 4/9fav); 2003 saw later Group 2 placed
Holborn win at 1/2fav & Compton's Eleven a non runner; in 2004 later
Listed winner Bibury Flyer was 2nd at 3/1; and in 2005 later good winners
Puskas (5/2) & Grantley Adams (4/1) were both unplaced.
He has had a fairly typical start to the season in terms of results but
he has had a number of 2yos run poorly this week, both on debut and on
later runs. It may be that we have mostly seen just moderate runners from
him to date but the level of performance this last week has been enough
to raise a question over the wellbeing of his 2yos at present.
Things are not looking good for R.
Millman at present. After a storming start to 2005 we knew early
on he had a solid group of 2yos although he got the majority of wins in
early season. He has had a slow start to 2006 and he appears to have a
less able group of 2yos although he possibly also has them less well forward.
However, the first two STO runs for the stable this week were poor although
both runners had some excuse (one hindered by getting into a pace duel
and the other's saddled slipped).
He runs Beckenham's Secret here who never got into his race on debut and
raced wide on the track throughout which was a disadvantage. The trainer
has run better types at the course in the last two seasons and all three
of the debut runners have won (Makabul & Glenmuir last year and Il
Palio his sole winner this year).
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SIRES:
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First season sire Kyllachy
has a runner with Chip Leader who made a poor debut on soft ground earlier
in the week. His other runner - Baileys Hilight - forced a much too strong
pace and recorded no rating three days ago at Nottingham.
Kyllachy had more than 70 yearlings sold in 2005 for an average well over
30,000gns. With the quality of support he got at stud to add to the sheer
numbers he is an obvious candidate to compete strongly for top first season
sire. However, it is worth noting that he showed his best form as a 4yo
and was a only a good nursery class runner at 2yo in later season.
Montjeu has made a big
name for himself at stud in just two seasons with middle distance winners
including Hurricane Run, Motivator & Scorpion. His record with 2yos
is mixed and the majority of his winners have been in later season over
7-8f, as you would expect. Given his very good record overall the lack
of precocious 5f winners is an irrelevance.
He has not had a 2yo winner before June in first two season and only one
at 5f with Kings Quay who showed much better form over 7f (trainer, you've
guessed it, Richard Hannon). Which makes Dear One's debut over 5f in early
April a surprise. In this situation you would look at the dam's record
to try to explain the early start. In this case it does not help, she is
by the quite stout stallion Caerleon and won over 10f at 3yo. She was a
relatively cheap yearling given the sire's impact & why is she running
this early?
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Chip Leader rated 69 (138) at the yearling sales. A compact, neat
and deep bodied physical type. A ready 2yo but below average size.
Riverside Dancer rated 67 (107). Slightly bigger and heavier than
Chip Leader and a little more length.
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